The Greatest Gift: How the 2009 F1 Championship Will Be Decided

So that was the 2008 season. We watched it unfold before our sometimes disbelieving eyes, we were pleased or not with the showdown in Brazil, and now it's over.

When I switch into mystic mode and try to peer through the curtain of time into 2009 I can only discern one certainty, which is the point of this article, and which I will come to after teasing you a little.

It would be easy for me to give you the result of every 2009 race, very easy. The trouble is, I'd be guessing, so we'll skip that one.

To explain why the fact I can see in 2009 is so important, why it is such a golden nugget, we need to look at history's map of the future, and that is always the past. Not too far in the past though, I only want you to think about one 2008 race.

You're a certified F1 fan, and you'll probably remember who won the Barcelona race and who came second. If not I'll remind you; the finish order was Raikkonen, Massa, Hamilton. Instantly you will have spotted that if Massa has come in ahead of cool Kimi he would now be world champion.

At that stage of the season Massa had not emerged as Ferrari's front-runner, but it must now be high on his long list of what-if's when he looks back at 2008.

2008 was far from being an ordinary season, it was distinguished by a remarkable catalogue of errors and mishaps that distorted the results. In a normal year we see each of the top teams' drivers tending to finish each race close together, with the main man being the guy in front. Remember Schumacher and Irvine/Barichello/Massa?

Much has been made about the effects of the new regulations for 2009 upsetting the apple cart, but it must be reasonable to assume that the teams which performed best under the old regulations will also make the best of the new ones. That should surely be true, because they have the budgets, expertise, and engineering resources to make it so.

At the start of 2008 Raikkonen was widely recognised as Ferrari's leading driver, but Massa has smashed that notion, and it cannot be put back together. In 2009 both drivers are likely to be strong challengers for the title, which will be good for the team's hopes in the constructor's championship, but is likely to ensure that each man will destroy the other's hopes.

Similarly, the highly-fancied BMW-Sauber team lacks an established leader. Both Heidfeld and Kubica may be capable of taking the title, but if both are grabbing for it neither will succeed.

McLaren have no such problem. Possibly he is scarred by his past experiences with competing drivers, but nobody could doubt that boss Ron Dennis will throw only one spear at the drivers title. My belief is that by not allowing one hand to rob the other McLaren will put their favourite driver in the best possible position.

Undivided team support is the greatest F1 gift of all, and it is why Lewis Hamilton will win the 2009 F1 driver's world championship. Or—as a long shot because of Renault's limited budget—Ferdinand Alonso will, but nobody else.

Anybody disagree with that?