2011 ACC Football Simulation, Predictions and Preview

Although it racked up 11 wins on the season, Virginia Tech's occasional ineptitude epitomized the ACC's football futility in 2010, with the Hokies following a hard-fought loss to Boise State by inexcusably falling to James Madison in Week 2.

To its credit, VT rolled through the rest of itsschedule and defeated Florida State in the conference championship game. Unfortunately, the Hokies were smoked by Stanford in the Orange Bowl.

This season, the conference is pinning its hopes on Florida State, which comes into the year with a No. 5 ranking despite losing quarterback Christian Ponder to the NFL. Greg Reid and Xavier Rhodes lead a dynamic secondary, with enforcement up front thanks to DE Brandon Jenkins and LB Nigel Bradham.

If E.J. Manuel can smoothly transition into the quarterback position, FSU will be a force to be reckoned with. The Seminoles get an early test with top-ranked Oklahoma coming into Tallahassee on September 17.

Virginia Tech hopes to rebound from its BCS embarrassment with Logan Thomas as its new quarterback. Thomas' combination of stature (6'6", 250 lbs) and speed instantly invigorates an offense that averaged 33.9 points per game last season.

Although there is much turnover on defense, coordinator Bud Foster has cultivated a culture of dominance that has passed down from team to team.

Other interesting subplots to keep on eye on in the ACC will be Al Golden's first year in Miami, Dabo Swinney trying to hold onto his job in Clemson and how the Butch Davis fiasco affects the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill.

Using our college football simulation engine, WhatIfSports.com simulated thousands of college football games to create this ACC Preview. Team ratings, player ratings and depth charts are accurate as of August 19th. What you see in the WIS-ACC Predictions table is the most likely outcome based on the computer simulations. The team-by-team schedules use Absolute Records, which you can learn more about below. Those same game-by-game simulations also generate average points per game for both teams.

WIS-ACC Predictions
Atlantic	W	L	Overall Record
Florida State	6	2	9-3
Clemson	5	3	8-4
Maryland	5	3	7-5
North Carolina State	4	4	7-5
Boston College	3	5	5-7
Wake Forest	1	7	3-9
Coastal	W	L	Overall Record
Virginia Tech	6	2	10-2
Miami (FL)	5	3	8-4
North Carolina	5	3	8-4
Georgia Tech	3	5	6-6
Duke	2	6	5-7
Virginia	2	6	4-8

For this analysis, thousands of college football games are simulated, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not, our expected record (in the table above) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Florida State

High expectations? Bring it on, say the Seminoles.

The No. 5 ranked 'Noles have the attention they've coveted for several years. That spot in the preseason coaches' poll brings heightened expectations, but also puts FSU in position to accomplish its national title goals.

All for a team that has not been to a BCS bowl since 2005 and has not won the ACC title in the same span. But FSU was an overwhelming pick at the ACC Kickoff on July 25 to win the ACC Atlantic Division and go on to win the league title over Virginia Tech.

"It's great to be there," FSU coach Jimbo Fisher said. "It does signify that people are taking notice of your program. You can say it doesn't mean anything, but it does at the same time. And that's where you want to be. If you're going to be good you have to embrace it."

Perception around the Seminoles is fueled by two solid recruiting classes that Fisher has assembled and the 10-4 record his team attained last year.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Florida State Seminoles
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	94	40-17
2	Charleston Southern Buccaneers	95	63-6
3	Oklahoma Sooners	44	33-35
4	@Clemson Tigers	68	31-24
6	@Wake Forest Demon Deacons	95	41-15
7	@Duke Blue Devils	92	39-20
8	Maryland Terrapins	67	31-23
9	North Carolina State Wolfpack	77	36-22
10	@Boston College Eagles	82	31-17
11	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	63	30-25
12	Virginia Cavaliers	92	34-16
13	@Florida Gators	73	29-21

Clemson

Although the defense lost several standouts to the NFL, including Da'Quan Bowers, Jarvis Jenkins and Marcus Gilchrist, defensive coordinator Kevin Steele's group should be solid if not spectacular once again as experienced backups move into starting roles.

The primary concerns continue to be on offense, where the Tigers will try to break in a new quarterback in sophomore Tajh Boyd to run new offensive coordinator Chad Morris's up-tempo offense.

Boyd is unproven and inexperienced, but head coach Dabo Swinney is counting on him to make an impact with both his arm and legs.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Clemson Tigers
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Troy Trojans	85	33-20
2	Wofford Terriers	95	53-7
3	Auburn Tigers	65	27-23
4	Florida State Seminoles	32	24-31
5	@Virginia Tech Hokies	43	23-26
6	Boston College Eagles	69	24-18
7	@Maryland Terrapins	57	26-22
8	North Carolina Tar Heels	66	26-20
9	@Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	65	27-21
11	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	82	30-17
12	@North Carolina State Wolfpack	64	28-24
13	@South Carolina Gamecocks	32	23-30

Maryland

Five offensive starters return, headlined by ACC Freshman of the Year Danny O'Brien at quarterback. O'Brien threw 22 touchdown passes and was fourth among all conference quarterbacks with a 134.5 rating.

Davin Meggett led the team in rushing and D.J. Adams rushed for 11 scores, but O'Brien will have new starters at the ends, and will particularly miss Torrey Smith, the Baltimore Ravens' second -ound draft choice. Senior Ronnie Tyler and junior Kevin Dorsey looked good in the spring.

On defense, seven starters return, including All-ACC defensive tackle Joe Vellano, All-ACC safety Kenny Tate, who has moved to linebacker, and up-and-coming linebacker Demetrius Hartsfield. Seven of the top 10 tacklers are back but they're lining up in a 4-3 now, and they're not exceptionally big or fast.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Maryland Terrapins
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	39	23-26
3	West Virginia Mountaineers	40	23-27
4	Temple Owls	68	29-22
5	Towson Tigers	95	53-7
6	@Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	69	27-21
7	Clemson Tigers	43	22-26
8	@Florida State Seminoles	33	23-31
9	Boston College Eagles	65	24-19
10	Virginia Cavaliers	77	29-18
11	@Notre Dame Fighting Irish	49	26-26
12	@Wake Forest Demon Deacons	84	31-17
13	@North Carolina State Wolfpack	58	28-24

North Carolina State

The Wolfpack finally has some momentum under coach Tom O'Brien after a 9-4 season that included a bowl victory against West Virginia. It's the first time in four years that N.C. State posted a winning record with O'Brien in charge.

Sustaining the momentum will be critical to the program's evolution and much of that will fall on the shoulders of redshirt junior QB Mike Glennon.

Glennon fits the mold of quarterback that O'Brien prefers. He's more of a drop-back, pro-style quarterback. He also comes with a family background, as older brother Sean Glennon is a former Virginia Tech QB.

While the quarterback issue will attract a lot of headlines, there are other areas for the Wolfpack to pay attention to. Yet with six starters returning on offense and eight starters back on defense, there's no reason that N.C. State shouldn't expect to stay on track.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 North Carolina State Wolfpack
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Liberty Flames	95	51-9
2	@Wake Forest Demon Deacons	82	34-20
3	South Alabama Jaguars	95	53-8
4	@Cincinnati Bearcats	50	29-30
5	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	67	28-24
6	Central Michigan Chippewas	74	31-22
8	@Virginia Cavaliers	71	30-21
9	@Florida State Seminoles	23	22-36
10	North Carolina Tar Heels	49	26-27
11	@Boston College Eagles	56	26-24
12	Clemson Tigers	35	24-28
13	Maryland Terrapins	42	24-28

Boston College

Last year's BC entry, an offensively challenged group, sat at 2-5 with the season heading right down the drain. The players vowed to keep plugging away and did just that. The Eagles won five in a row and extended the bowl streak, before losing the Fight Hunger Bowl to Nevada to finish at 7-6.

They did it with a freshman quarterback, with Chase Rettig taking over in the fourth game, and with the offensive line, usually a BC strength, struggling. But they also did it with defense, which is where LB Luke Kuechly, called "The Human Eraser" by coach Frank Spaziani, led the country in tackles.

Kuechly, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, is a junior now and should be an All-American. The defense was hit with losses up front, and the inspirational Mark Herzlich is gone from the strong linebacking corps, but the defense should again be strong.

Tackle Kaleb Ramsey anchors a line that suffered some losses and Donnie Fletcher is the veteran leader in the secondary.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Boston College Eagles
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Northwestern Wildcats	48	24-23
2	@UCF Knights	48	23-24
3	Duke Blue Devils	62	27-21
4	Massachusetts Minutemen	95	47-7
5	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	74	26-17
6	@Clemson Tigers	31	18-24
8	@Virginia Tech Hokies	23	18-27
9	@Maryland Terrapins	35	19-24
10	Florida State Seminoles	17	17-31
11	North Carolina State Wolfpack	43	24-26
12	@Notre Dame Fighting Irish	37	21-27
13	@Miami (FL) Hurricanes	28	19-27

Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons were so miserable a year ago that putting the pieces back together has become almost a rallying cry.

"I've got a feeling we're not a cocky group right now," coach Jim Grobe said with the upcoming season barely more than a month away. "Our kids are embarrassed what happened to us last year."

A good share of the attention will fall on a defense that was scorched time and time again a year ago. The Demon Deacons have started to bulk up along the front and they've turned to a 3-4 defense. That was something that they implemented during the season last year, so with more time to become familiar with that alignment, there could be more rewards this season.

The offense will be directed by sophomore quarterback Tanner Price, who was banged up repeatedly as a true freshman and desperately needed more help.

With four seniors on the offensive line, it's time for the Demon Deacons to put that experience to good use.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	@Syracuse Orange	22	18-29
2	North Carolina State Wolfpack	18	20-34
3	Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs	95	41-9
5	@Boston College Eagles	26	17-26
6	Florida State Seminoles	5	15-41
7	Virginia Tech Hokies	5	15-35
8	@Duke Blue Devils	45	25-28
9	@North Carolina Tar Heels	17	18-31
10	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	12	19-35
11	@Clemson Tigers	18	17-30
12	Maryland Terrapins	16	17-31
13	Vanderbilt Commodores	52	22-23

Virginia Tech

The year's hopes and dreams ride on the big shoulders of quarterback Logan Thomas and brothers Derrick and Antoine Hopkins at defensive tackle.

While comparisons to Cam Newton are obvious because of Thomas' build and surprising ability to make big plays with his feet, one must remember that Thomas is still somewhat raw, having been recruited as a tight end before being moved to QB when Virginia Tech whiffed on a couple of prospects.

An easy September schedule—the toughest opponent could arguably be longtime FCS power Appalachian State in the opener—should not only boost Thomas' confidence, it should also serve as a shakedown cruise of sorts for the Hopkins brothers.

If both can stand their ground in the interior better than last year, when they would make two good plays and then make a bad one to cost the team big plays, the defense could become the kind of nasty stop unit one expects from this program.

And that might just allow a perennial contender to find its way to New Orleans in January for a BCS title game.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Virginia Tech Hokies
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Appalachian State Mountaineers	95	59-6
2	@East Carolina Pirates	89	36-19
3	Arkansas State Red Wolves	95	38-17
4	@Marshall Thundering Herd	95	36-13
5	Clemson Tigers	57	26-23
6	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	50	25-25
7	@Wake Forest Demon Deacons	95	35-15
8	Boston College Eagles	77	27-18
9	@Duke Blue Devils	83	31-19
11	@Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	75	30-21
12	North Carolina Tar Heels	61	29-22
13	@Virginia Cavaliers	87	31-16

Miami (FL)

Miami has gone through the summer without knowing for sure who the quarterback will be when the Hurricanes kick off the season at Maryland Sept. 5. First-year coach Al Golden, though, is hoping the competition between senior Jacory Harris and sophomore Stephen Morris will be settled early in fall camp.

With 24 career starts, Harris, a senior, has the experience edge over Morris, who was headed for a redshirt year in 2010 until Harris was knocked to the sidelines late in the year. Morris had some success, nearly guiding the Hurricanes to a comeback win over Virginia in the game Harris was injured, but he also struggled with interceptions, just like Harris.

"I'm going to make a decision who the starter is going to be, but I certainly would not hesitate to put in somebody else if things weren't going right," Golden said. "It's always about what's best for the team."

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	@Maryland Terrapins	61	26-23
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	40	23-25
4	Kansas State Wildcats	76	30-20
5	Bethune-Cookman Wildcats	95	57-7
6	@Virginia Tech Hokies	50	25-25
7	@North Carolina Tar Heels	58	26-22
8	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	81	30-21
9	Virginia Cavaliers	82	30-15
10	Duke Blue Devils	79	31-21
11	@Florida State Seminoles	37	25-30
12	@South Florida Bulls	70	28-18
13	Boston College Eagles	72	27-19

North Carolina

Greg Barnes of InsideCarolina.com is our North Carolina Tar Heels insider:

North Carolina enters the 2011 football season in disarray after head coach Butch Davis was fired eight days before the start of training camp. Defensive coordinator Everett Withers has been elevated to interim head coach and retains Davis's entire staff, so that continuity should help keep the players on track. The Tar Heels have a glaring hole in the secondary with three new starters and sophomore quarterback Bryn Renner has to live up to his preseason hype, but if those two positions are solidified early, North Carolina has the talent to challenge for the ACC Coastal Division crown.

For more from Greg Barnes and the Tar Heels, check out InsideCarolina.com.

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 North Carolina Tar Heels
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	James Madison Dukes	95	53-8
2	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	84	31-17
3	Virginia Cavaliers	81	28-17
4	@Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	64	26-21
5	@East Carolina Pirates	75	34-21
6	Louisville Cardinals	76	27-20
7	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	42	22-26
8	@Clemson Tigers	34	20-26
9	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	83	31-18
10	@North Carolina State Wolfpack	51	27-26
12	@Virginia Tech Hokies	39	22-29
13	Duke Blue Devils	72	31-21

Georgia Tech

Tech figures to be a rushing juggernaut once again after leading the nation last year (323.3 yards per game). QB Tevin Washington and A-backs Orwin Smith (9.7 ypc) and Roddy Jones (6.8 ypc) all will thrive in coach Paul Johnson's option attack.

Washington vows the passing game will be much better than last year, when he and senior QB Josh Nesbitt combined to complete 38 percent of their throws with nine TDs and seven INTs. 6'5" WR Stephen Hill likely will be the featured target.

Look for the biggest improvement to come on defense, where the unit is entering its second year under coordinator Al Groh. Players say they've gotten much more comfortable in the 3-4 scheme and are ready to unleash their playmaking ability.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Western Carolina Catamounts	95	49-7
2	@Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	79	29-20
3	Kansas Jayhawks	85	32-16
4	North Carolina Tar Heels	35	21-26
5	@North Carolina State Wolfpack	33	24-28
6	Maryland Terrapins	31	21-27
7	@Virginia Cavaliers	67	25-20
8	@Miami (FL) Hurricanes	19	21-30
9	Clemson Tigers	35	21-27
11	Virginia Tech Hokies	25	21-30
12	@Duke Blue Devils	71	29-22
13	Georgia Bulldogs	20	20-32

Duke

The Blue Devils would appear to have a long way to go after winning only one conference game in a three-win season. But coach David Cutcliffe, who harps on building optimism, senses a significant change in fortunes.

"The worm has turned," Cutcliffe said.

Cutcliffe was baffled by losses in close games in 2010, something he said can be turned around by paying attention to more details. The Blue Devils lost four games by six points or less last year.

The encouraging spots for the Blue Devils begin with the passing aspects of their offense. They've established a core of receivers for returning starting quarterback Sean Renfree to throw to. Putting together a consistent rushing attack to alleviate pressure from Renfree continues to be something that gains traction only some of the time.

- FOXSports.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Duke Blue Devils
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Richmond Spiders	95	44-6
2	Stanford Cardinal	5	18-45
3	@Boston College Eagles	38	21-27
4	Tulane Green Wave	71	30-22
5	@FIU Golden Panthers	67	30-25
7	Florida State Seminoles	8	20-39
8	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	55	28-25
9	Virginia Tech Hokies	17	19-31
10	@Miami (FL) Hurricanes	20	21-31
11	@Virginia Cavaliers	47	23-24
12	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	29	22-29
13	@North Carolina Tar Heels	28	21-31

Virginia

The Cavaliers will remain a step behind the league's contenders in overall talent, but especially on offense. The defense, on the other hand, has a chance to be sneaky-good. Not only is it London's area of expertise, but the unit is rich in starting experience, including next-level CB Chase Minnifield and DE Cam Johnson.

Plus, the learning curve for Jim Reid's 4-3 alignment figures to be much flatter than it was a year ago, when everything was new.

- CFN, Scout.com

Absolute Schedule/Records

2011 Virginia Cavaliers
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	William & Mary Tribe	95	43-9
2	@Indiana Hoosiers	46	27-26
3	@North Carolina Tar Heels	19	17-28
4	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	26	24-33
5	Idaho Vandals	62	26-21
7	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	33	20-25
8	North Carolina State Wolfpack	29	21-30
9	@Miami (FL) Hurricanes	16	15-30
10	@Maryland Terrapins	22	18-29
11	Duke Blue Devils	52	24-23
12	@Florida State Seminoles	8	16-34
13	Virginia Tech Hokies	13	16-31