US Open Tennis 2011 Draw: Previewing Draw for Roger Federer

Roger Federer is seed No. 3 at this year’s US Open, his lowest seed since he was seeded 13th in 2001 and 2002. He was unseeded in 2000 when he played the US Open for the first time.

Federer, a five-time US Open champion, is in the second quarter of the Men's Singles Draw and is in the same half as top seed and World No. 1 Novak Djokovic.

If he is to win the US Open and add to his record number of slams, he will have a tough draw to make it. Let’s preview Roger Federer’s draw at the US Open.

First Round

He will face the top Colombian player, 23-year-old Santiago Giraldo. Federer has never played against Giraldo, who is ranked 56th in the world.

There is not much to say about this match, since there is not much data to analyze to try to predict how he would fare against Federer.

Giraldo lost yesterday—August 24th—against Andy Roddick 6-1, 6-3 at the ATP Winston-Salem Open. If I use that match as a measuring stick, Federer should win 6-2, 6-2, 6-0. Federer moves on.

Second Round

Here Federer will face one of two unseeded players, either Israeli Dudi Sela or Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci. Neither of those two has played against each other before, but Bellucci has been playing with better company lately and is ranked higher.

Federer should be facing Bellucci in the second round. He has never played against him before. Bellucci has played—and lost—against Djokovic, Nadal and Murray in the past. He will lose against Federer as well to complete his losses against the ‘Big 4.’

Third Round

Croatia’s Marin Cilic, seeded 27th, looks like the possible opponent here. But I think it will be Australian Bernard Tomic who will face Federer in this round.

If it’s Cilic, Federer is 2-0 lifetime against him, beating him 6-4, 6-3 and 6-3, 6-4. If it's Tomic, Federer has not played against him yet.

Federer should beat either player here. Tomic could push Federer a bit here but not enough to upset him.

Fourth Round

Viktor Troicki and Radek Stepanek, seeded 15th and 23th, are the favorites to face Federer here. But there are also two unseeded players that could make it, Tommy Haas and Philip Kohlschreiber.

Haas is a dark horse to be in this round, but could not be discarded. Troicki would lose to Stepanek before facing Federer.

If Kohlschreiber wouldn’t be facing Stepanek in Round One, I would pick him to face Federer in this round. But Stepanek has his number and should make it to face Federer here.

Federer is 12-2 against Stepanek and has won eight in a row—in straight sets—since losing to him in Davis Cup competition four years ago in the Czech Republic. He is 12-3 against Haas—last eight in a row—and has never lost to Troicki or Kohlschreiber. Federer will move on.

Quarterfinal Round

This round is where things will start to get tougher for Federer. It will be either red-hot Mardy Fish or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga—who is dealing with a right arm injury he suffered in Cincinnati.

Even with Tsonga healthy, I believe Fish—the top American seed—will be Federer’s opponent here. Federer is 6-1 against Fish, but this is a different player now than the one Federer has dominated.

Federer, in his last two matches against Fish, lost 6-3, 6-2 at Indian Wells in 2008, and barely beat him last year in Cincinnati 6-7 (5), 7-6 (1), 6-4. You can see Fish has started to play Federer better recently.

A win by Fish here wouldn’t surprise me here, but I believe Federer still has enough in the tank to take him down. It won’t be easy, it could even go five sets, but Federer will prevail.

Semifinal Round

This is Novak Djokovic territory. If there is someone that has the recipe to beat Djokovic, it is Federer. Federer beat Djokovic in the French Open to stop Djokovic's winning streak. Nole had beaten him the other three times they played this year.

Djokovic’s main concern now is his sore right shoulder. This could hinder his chances in the tournament.

But Djokovic has a sweet draw to get to this point without too much hustle and IF he is healthy, he should beat Federer. Unfortunately for Federer, Djokovic is really playing a step above him right now.

Championship Match

As I stated for the previous round, unfortunately, I don’t see Federer getting here. BUT, if that happens and he gets to this match, I see Andy Murray on the other end reaching the finals against him.

The result will then be the same as the previous two Slams finals between them, a win for Federer.

- Carlos Torres