The Pujols conundrum: Cubs, Cardinals have extremely crucial offseasons ahead

Would the Chicago Cubs be wise to break the bank for Albert Pujols? (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals, two teams forming the National League’s best rivalry, just finished a three-game set at Wrigley Field, with Chicago taking two.

Throughout the series finale, a 6-2 win for St. Louis, ESPN announcers spent much of the time talking about what the future may hold for both teams.

As Dan Shulman and Bobby Valentine discussed this, the camera fixed upon two men sitting behind the plate. They were wearing Albert Pujols jerseys. And they weren’t Cardinals fans. These were clever Cubs jerseys, displaying a hope.

Pujols, one of the best players of the 21st century, will one of many free-agents this season the Cardinals have to decide whether to re-sign or not. What happens with him will decide the rest of the Cardinals offseason. Other key pieces Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Yadier Molina have club options for next season, while Lance Berkman will be a free-agent. St. Louis can only do so much financially, but not keeping the majority or adequately replacing them would severely set the team back.

Pujols is clearly their top priority, but the first baseman will demand a contract spanning upwards of ten years and worth well over $200 million. The Cardinals have to sign him. Letting him go would be a franchise-defining blow. They wouldn’t be the same.

Ticket sales would go down and the team’s production would greatly suffer. At the same time, giving him such an enormous contract would hamstring them financially for potentially the next decade. The three-time MVP would be worth the risk, but will they ultimately pony up and take it?

This will be the 103rd straight season without a championship for Chicago, but there is light at the end of the nightmarish tunnel. They will have around $40 million to spend this offseason, with a new General Manager in place after Jim Hendry’s firing, and the chance to sign a few prized players. They also have plenty of young talent, with Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, Tyler Colvin, and Matt Garza as the team’s cornerstones.

Last winter, the Cubs signed first baseman Carlos Pena to a one-year deal. This was telling. He may have not been worth more than that, but the Cubs brass knew Pujols and fellow impending free-agent Prince Fielder would be available. Will they sign either? They will certainly try.

Tom Ricketts will have plenty of candidates to pick from for the Cubs GM vacancy. Will the hiree go after Pujols? (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Firing Hendry this past week also gave a hint as to their offseason plans. Owner Tom Ricketts will want a replacement hired and ready to spend this winter. Andrew Friedman, the Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations for the Tampa Bay Rays, should be their top target. He is young, just 35, and knows minor league talent, but he has a very strong relationship with Tampa Bay’s owner Stuart Sternberg.

Chicago, despite not having won a championship since the year Henry Ford produced his first Model T, is a storied franchise and a big market with a bright future. It would be hard to pass up the chance to run such an organization. Whomever the Cubs hire will take the job with one of the franchise’s most important offseasons looming.

The Cubs fans are desperate for a winner. And they know the team is just a few moves away from seriously contending in a very competitive NL Central.

Grantland‘s Jonah Keri doesn’t believe Chicago would be smart to sign Pujols, but he delves into why they have reason to:

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“There are plenty of reasons to do it, of course. Pujols has been the most valuable player in baseball over the past three seasons … and really, hell, every other season dating back to his rookie campaign in 2001. He’s having another big year, with a shot at hitting 40 homers for the third straight time. The Cubs will have a hole to fill at first base, and Pujols would give the team its most dynamic (and productive) star since Sammy Sosa in his prime. Sweetest of all, it would tweak archrival St. Louis if the front office pulled it off, too.”

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Keri goes on to detail his reasoning against the Cubs signing him, citing his regression this season and his age. He is hitting .289, which is his lowest mark by 25 points, and his On Base Percentage has dropped from last season’s mark of .414 to .357. And he will be 32 in January, which is far from young in baseball circles, and would be in his 40s by contract’s end. That is rightfully of great concern.

He is still one of the top players in the game, and maybe he has been distracted this season by his impending free-agency. When a down year is still one in which 40 homers and 100 rbi’s is still within reach speaks to how good he is. The money he, and, for that matter, any other top free-agent, would cost should make the front office wince, but that’s just how the game is these days. To gain something without relying on player development you have to open up and empty your wallet.

Money talks, and the Cubs and Cardinals will have it. In the span of one winter, these two rivals can go in opposite directions. And it all starts with Albert Pujols and the mindset of an unknown General Manager.