Drafting With the First Pick, Who to Take?

As Chris Berman would say... WHOP!

Such a simple question. Who will you draft with the number one spot. Someone has to do it and you’re sure to fail in some respects. Often because the expectations of said player are so great, he could never equal the hype with which you just put on him. So temper your expectations.

In 2010, Chris Johnson was almost universally picked as the number one player. Mostly because of his ridiculous 2009 campaign where he put up 2,500 total yards and 16 touchdowns. Last season, CJ2K was good but it was no 2009 and most of the managers who made him the #1 overall pick were disappointed. He finished as the number 3 RB in standard leagues, gasp (according to yahoo.com). Who could predict, Arian Foster would finish ahead of him? Nobody, really. If you did, you would be the single greatest fantasy football guru of ALL TIME.

Moving ahead to 2011 where we all fondly remember Arian Foster bursting onto the scene and blowing away all other RB’s in his path to fantasy glory, he will go number one in a ton of leagues. Mostly because people do not remember the trends so well. Almost a given, is that Foster will not finish this season as the best running back. That’s not to say he won’t finish in the top 5 because this is certainly possible. But number one will go to someone else.

Looking at the stats, only two guys finished in the top 5 of running backs in both 2009 and 2010, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. And if it weren’t for the contract dispute in Tennessee, I might take Chris Johnson. But because of the dispute and CJ2K not practicing, he is slowly moving down draft boards (Which means you could be in for a steal at 5th overall). So that leaves only one name as the logical pick.

All Day Adrian Peterson.

Peterson finished #2 the last two years and with me, it’s all about consistency. He is going to be a top 4 or 5 back this year and get you double-digit touchdowns. And that’s just the standard AP year. He has the ceiling to be #1 if things go well and the team is better than advertised. Don’t count on that, but count on him being the workhorse for McNabb and Co. I expect Peterson to get around 1,800 total yards and 10 touchdowns, a great foundation for any fantasy team. As an added bonus, it makes the Minnesota games on FOX worth watching.

The PPR angle…

Of course there are also leagues where you score points for every catch. This can alter how you look at certain players when evaluating their draft position. Take for example, Adrian Peterson, he’s only going to net you about 30-40 catches a year. Not terrible, but he’s nowhere near the catch totals Ray Rice, Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy will end up with. Because of the added pts gained by catching the ball, I really like Ray Rice in the number one spot for PPR leagues. It scares me a little now that Ricky Williams is in Baltimore but coach Harbaugh has already come out and stated Rice will handle the goal-line work as well. If you need more convincing on Rice, read here.

Dynasty Keeper League angle…

Drafting first in these types of leagues are all about WR’s and RB’s. You don’t want to gamble on unknown rookie QB’s so you have to try and get the next best bet. In these types of leagues you are also drafting for the future, not worried so much if they produce immediately. Don’t get me wrong, if they can find success in year one like LeGarrette Blount, it’s even sweeter. But, you are trying to predict who might be the most successful pro throughout his entire career. In 2010 it was Ryan Matthews, he had the talent and was coming into a great situation. By all accounts his rookie season was a failure but everyone that drafted him is hoping this is the year he starts paying dividends.

There are quite a few decent candidates on the board, Ryan Williams in Arizona, Mark Ingram in New Orleans, Julio Jones in Atlanta, A.J. Green in Cincinnati, Daniel Thomas in Miami and Greg Little in Cleveland. All of these names have great potential but the one that sticks out most is A.J. Green. Kid has big size at 6’4″ and you know what they say, you can’t teach size, he is also a very good route runner. The big knock on Green is that his QB’s situation isn’t ideal. Hopefully your team can withstand keeping a guy like Green on the bench because it will probably be 2012 before he becomes a mainstay in fantasy lineups.

If you have another league with crazy variations in points and want to know who we would take based on them, drop us a comment and we’ll get back to you!

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