2011 College Football Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions Analysis and Projections

The Penn State Nittany Lions football team is heading into the 2011 season looking to rebound from a 7-6 campaign last year, which also saw them finish tied for fourth in the Big Ten conference with a 4-4 record in conference play.

Inconsistent play at quarterback by true freshman Rob Bolden and former walk-on Matt McGloin, injuries to the Nittany Lions' top defensive players and an offensive line that struggled to run block led to Penn State's sub-par performance in 2010.

With seven starters returning on each side of the ball, legendary head coach Joe Paterno still at the helm and a host of emerging stars, the Nittany Lions have a chance to win the Leaders division and potentially the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.

Offense:

All of the talk this offseason has been about Penn State's ongoing quarterback battle between McGloin and Bolden. Do not expect a starter to be named until a few days before the season opener, but whoever wins the job will have to play well for the Nittany Lions to contend in 2011. 

The good news for the two relatively inexperienced quarterbacks is that they will have arguably the best group of receivers to throw to in the entire conference.  

Senior receiver Derek Moye led the Nittany Lions receiving corps last season with 885 yards, eight touchdowns, and a dazzling 16.7 yards per catch, which was second best among all Big Ten wide receivers.  

Junior wideouts Justin Brown and Devon Smith will be reliable second options, and fifth-year senior tight end Andrew Szczerba has the potential to be one of the best in the country at his position if he has fully recovered from back surgery, which forced him to miss the entire 2010 season. 

Penn State does have some big question marks on the offensive line and at running back though. Paterno announced Tuesday fifth-year senior tailback Stephfon Green will not return to the team due to disciplinary issues, which puts the entire load of the running game squarely on the shoulders of sophomore Silia Reed. 

The Nittany Lions' offensive line needs to be better this season and will have to replace their top blocker from a year ago, Stefan Wisniewski.

Defense:

Penn State's defense gave up an average of 346.8 yards per game in 2010 and was dead last in the Big Ten in red zone defense.  

The Nittany Lions' secondary may be the best unit on defense, with potential All-Big Ten cornerbacks D'Anton Lynn and Stephon Morris returning, along with safety Nick Sukay, who missed key games last season due to injury. 

Junior linebacker Michael Mauti will be the star of the defense and outside linebackers Nate Stupar and Khairi Fortt will be expected to play at a high level all season long. Stupar recorded the third most tackles on Penn State's 2010 team, but has had some hamstring issues so far this offseason and Fortt has emerged as a rising star entering his sophomore season. 

Defensive end is a position lacking depth with Jack Crawford and Eric Latimore coming off of foot surgery, and Pete Massaro will miss the entire 2011 season with an ACL injury. 

Prediction:

Penn State will be a much better team in 2011 if they can stay healthy and either Bolden or McGloin can be efficient and not turn the ball over, but unfortunately their record may not indicate a big improvement due to a treacherous schedule. 

The Nittany Lions should blow out Indiana State, Eastern Michigan and Temple, but will drop a home bout with Alabama in a less embarrassing fashion than their 24-3 loss in Tuscaloosa a year ago. 

The opening portion of Penn State's conference schedule sets up well with a road game against Indiana and home match-ups with an inexperienced Iowa Hawkeyes squad and the struggling Purdue Boilermakers. 

A road loss to Northwestern will be the Nittany Lions' first loss in conference play and the team will remain in the hunt to win the Leaders division with a home victory over Illinois and an upset against Nebraska. 

Road trips to Ohio State and Wisconsin to close out the season will likely result in losses, though, and keep Penn State from making the trip to Indianapolis this season.

Projected Record: 8-4 (5-3 Big Ten, Third Place Leaders Division)

9/3 - Indiana State - Win

9/10 - Alabama - Loss

9/17 - @ Temple - Win

9/24 - Eastern Michigan - Win

10/1 - @ Indiana - Win

10/8 - Iowa - Win

10/15 - Purdue - Win

10/22 - @ Northwestern - Loss

10/29 - Illinois - Win

11/12 - Nebraska - Win

11/19 - @ Ohio State - Loss

11/26 - @ Wisconsin - Loss

Zach Dirlam is a Big Ten Columnist for the new website Sports at Work. Check out his blog, Dirlam’s Dirty Dugout Sports Blog, which features this story along with other articles and video reports on the major sports. You can also follow his blog on Twitter, which will provide you with the latest updates about what will be posted on the blog!