NFL Week 11 Picks: Broncos @ Falcons

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, Nov. 16 - 1:00 PM

If you missed either of the Broncos or Falcons games last week, you missed a great game. Jay Cutler lead the Broncos in an amazing fourth quarter comeback, and Chevis Jackson stopped Drew Brees and the Saints from having an equally impressive fourth quarter comeback with a 95-yard interception for a TD.

These two teams have only met once before, Week Eight in 2004, when Michael Vick was the face of the Falcons franchise and Jake Plummer was pulling the trigger for the Broncos. Needless to say, these two teams have changed quite a bit since then, so it seems pointless to reference that game at all.

What is relevant, though, is how these two teams have performed this year.

Denver is 5-4 and tied with the Chargers with a 2-1 division record for the AFC West top spot, and the Falcons are in third place in the NFC South with a 6-3 record.

Jay Cutler has been an explosive QB with WR weapons in Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, while Michael Turner has been a fantastic running back for Atlanta with 890 rushing yards and seven TDs.

The Broncos' running game is a mess. Selvin Young has been limited by a groin injury all season, Michael Pittman and Andre Hall were placed on IR after Week Eight, and Ryan Torain, their rookie RB who was injured in preseason but showed a lot of promise, tore his ACL last week against the Browns and was placed on IR.

FB Peyton Hills ran the ball for the first time since Week One after Torain was injured and accumulated 24 yards on eight carries. Needless to say, it will be interesting to see what the Broncos do with the running game this week.

Here's how the two teams match up:

Points Per Game
Broncos Offense vs. Falcons Defense - 24.9 (9th) vs. 19.3 (9th)
Falcons Offense vs. Broncos Defense - 23.4 (13th) vs. 27.9 (28th)

Rush Yards Per Game
Broncos Offense vs. Falcons Defense - 107.2 (18th) vs. 119.1 (21st)
Falcons Offense vs. Broncos Defense - 157.8 (2nd) vs. 146.3 (27th)

Pass Yards Per Game
Broncos Offense vs. Falcons Defense - 287.9 (3rd) vs. 228.4 (22nd)
Falcons Offense vs. Broncos Defense - 203.2 (19th) vs. 242.8 (28th)

Total Yards Per Game
Broncos Offense vs. Falcons Defense - 395.1 (2nd) vs. 347.6 (23rd)
Falcons Offense vs. Broncos Defense - 361.0 (6th) vs. 389.1 (29th)

The Falcons showed last week that they can survive against a team with a huge throwing game and problems at RB. The Falcons are going to defend deep and double Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal the whole game.

The Broncos are also giving up huge rushing yards per game, and with the second-best rush offense behind Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, I don't see the Broncos defense giving them a lot of problems.

Falcons over Broncos.