Miami Ohio vs. Ball State Free Pick: November 11th 2008

Miami-Ohio vs. Ball State Free Pick courtesy of Matt Foust, An award Winning Handicapper Featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting on college football on Saturday, be sure to Buy Matt’s Expert NCAA Picks

Ball State -18.5 (-110) - Tue Nov 11 ‘08 7:00p
Tonight ESPN2 gives us anther MAC match-up, this time between Ball State and the Miami, OH Red Hawks. The Cardinals are favored on the road anywhere from -18.5 to -20.5, and for good reason. We are taking Ball State -18.5 in tonight’s stand alone game.

Ball State, sitting at 9-0, has dominated the MAC this year. The Cardinals are known for their offense prowess, averaging 38.3 points per game on the season, but it is their defense that really makes them superior. Ball State has held their opposition to an average of 15.3 points per game and they shut down a quality Northern Illinois unit last week, limiting them to just 14 points. They will do the same this evening against the Red Hawks who have struggled to score points all year.

The Red Hawks are 2-7 on the season and just 1-3 at home (their lone win coming against FCS school Charleston Southern). Their three losses came against Vanderbilt and conference foes Temple and Kent State. The average margin of loss for the Red Hawks at Fred C. Yager Stadium this season is 24 points.

Ball State can hurt opponents in many ways, but their ground game sets things up well for quarterback Nate Davis (19 TD’s, 5 INT). The Cardinals average 194.1 yards per game on the ground and Miami, OH yields 178 per to opposing rushing attacks. MiQuale Lewis (5.8 ypc on the year) will have a field day against the Red Hawk front and Davis will take care of the rest. Additionally, Ball State’s rushing ability often puts them in third and short situations and they excel at converting (51%) while the Red Hawks defense has difficulty getting offenses off the field (45% third downs conversions allowed).

This game is a mismatch in almost everyway, right down to the turnovers. Ball State is +6 in turnovers on the road and Miami, OH is -10 at home. This thing has route written all over it.

Things to consider: Ball State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite. Miami (OH) is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Ball State is 3-0 ATS the last four years when coming off a two game home stand.

Miami-Ohio vs. Ball State Free Pick: Take Ball State -18.5 (-110)