Fantasy Football 2011: Dwayne Bowe or Brandon Lloyd; Who Do You Select?

I don’t know about you, but I am stoked for the upcoming NFL season.

Alright, I’ll be honest with you. What I’m really amped up for is for fantasy football to start (of course, there still is my Minnesota Vikings to look forward to).

I love getting together with everyone in the league and tossing back a few cocktails while talking some smack and letting them all know who’s about to draft a champion. What I love most of all, though, is dissecting the upcoming, all-important next pick.

That next pick could make or break your whole season. This moment is the very reason we spend so much time evaluating players' stats from the year before and reading what The Talented Mr. Roto has to say. This very moment is the reason we play fantasy football.

Now, some of us are going to see the heavy-hitting receivers like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald fall off the board early, making everyone put a premium on drafting a receiver soon.

Now you’re at that point where you must draft a receiver, and you’re faced with Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Lloyd as the best available. This is where I hope to help you make the right decision.

Bowe and Lloyd each had tremendous career years in 2010. Those two receivers came out of the woodwork and performed way beyond anyone's expectations.

Let’s give you an idea of what Bowe and Lloyd accomplished:

Bowe had 16 touchdowns through his first three seasons. He basically doubled his career total with 15 touchdowns last year. What’s even crazier is the fact that Bowe came up with 13 of those touchdowns from Weeks 6 through 12.

Lloyd registered 15 touchdowns over his first seven seasons.  Last year, he walked away with 11 touchdowns. Lloyd also racked up 1,448 yards last year, compared to the 2,370 yards he totaled up through his first seven seasons.

What Bowe has going for him is a killer running game to take the focus off of him. Matt Cassel also came into his own as a quarterback and is as accurate as any in the NFL.

What could really hurt Bowe is the free-agent signing of Steve Breaston and the 6’4”, 230-pound first-rounder out of Pittsburgh, Jonathan Baldwin. 

With all those options at Cassel’s disposal, including Jamaal Charles out of the backfield, Bowe’s targets are sure to drop from last year.

His production may not, however. During that seven-week touchdown fest last year, Bowe started to see a significant amount of double coverage. Defenses will have to adjust now that Cassel has other options.

Lloyd’s success came from Kyle Orton. Orton has molded himself into a solid quarterback with good accuracy.

Lloyd also had other receivers around him that were having decent seasons, especially Jabar Gaffney, who had arguably his best season as a pro.

What’s hurting Lloyd this year is the Broncos losing Gaffney to free agency. The Broncos are not sure what kind of running game they have with Knowshon Moreno, either. He hasn’t exactly imposed his will on any defenses since his arrival into the league.

I personally don’t believe that the apparent quarterback controversy is going to affect Lloyd’s stats this year. I say this because Lloyd had at least 73 yards in the three games that Tim Tebow started. He also posted a 100-yard game and caught two touchdowns over that span.

However, Lloyd could suffer if facing a handful of double coverage. He’s not the kind of receiver that can beat it.

Denver’s 2010 first-round pick, Demaryius Thomas, is almost a lock to not play in 2011 after tearing an Achilles tendon during a February workout.

That leaves Eddie Royal and Eric Decker as the leading candidates for the No. 2 and No. 3 receiver spots. I’m not trying to knock Eric Decker at all (Golden Gopher represent), but he obviously has not proven anything at the NFL level.

Now the conventional wisdom would be to go Bowe, right? He is still young with a good amount of upside. He also plays in a well-balanced offense.

But are you conventional? Are you conservative? Are you a republican? Do you just lay up (ala David Sims), or do you go for it like Roy “Tin Cup” McAvoy?

Wouldn’t you want a receiver on your team that's in a constant passing situation, because his team is constantly playing from behind?

Wouldn’t you want a receiver on your team that’s getting the vast majority of all the targets, even though he is constantly double-teamed?

Wouldn’t it be cool to have a 30-year-old never-was of a receiver, until last year, on your team while he’s torching the league again?

I know Roy McAvoy would, and he got the girl in the end.

I would personally hate to have either one on my team, but who knows? Maybe you’ll be the unlucky person that’s sitting there with back-to-back picks and decides to shock your little fantasy football league (world) by selecting them both.