Braves' Brandon Beachy and Phillies' Vance Worley: Are They Real Deal?

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have been pleasantly surprised by the performance of their number five starters.

Brandon Beachy was a September call-up for the Braves last year, and while he had an ERA of 3.00 in 2010, he went 0-2 in three games started.

This year, he was expected to do well, but not nearly as well as he has done.

Vance Worley was a Phillies' September call-up, and he went 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 2010.

Worley, like Beachy, was expected to do well, but not nearly as well as he has done.

This article will look at the performances of both pitchers, and determine the likeliness of their great pitching continuing.

Performance vs. Expected Performance

Before the season began, the expectations for Beachy and Worley were not particularly high.

Beachy almost did not make the cut on to the team, on account of his talented Gwinnett teammates.

Vance Worley has not played his entire year as a starter; he began pitching in the bullpen.

He was only converted to a starter when his teammates Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton were injured.

Both pitchers had fairly low expectations, which is why their current performances seem even more amazing.

Basic Statistics

Looking at basic statistics alone, it is difficult to argue against the statement that both team's pitchers are amazing.

Brandon Beachy is 5-2 in sixteen games started, and his ERA is 3.49.

The only stat that would go against him is the 14 home runs he has given up in the 90.1 innings he has pitched.

Vance Worley's statistics are even more impressive than Beachy's.

Worley is currently 8-1, with a 2.35 ERA, after 13 games started.

These are the statistics of an ace, and Worley is only the number five starter for his team.

Advanced Statistics

The advanced statistics also make the two pitchers look impressive.

Beachy's WHIP is 1.21, and his batting average against is .233.

And though he does not yet qualify, if he did, his K/9 ratio of 9.46 would rank him fourth for the NL.

Worley's WHIP is 1.10, and his batting average against is .207.

The only statistic here that does not favor the pitchers is FIP.

Beachy's FIP is 3.98, and Worley's FIP is 3.28. Also, Worley's BABIP is .247.

This suggests that the two pitchers, while still great, may not perform quite as amazing for the rest of the season.

Minor League Statistics

Because neither pitcher has been playing in the major leagues for an extensive amount of time, it is necessary to look at their minor league statistics.

In AAA, Beachy participated in nine games, which amounted to a total of 50.2 innings.

His record was 3-0, his ERA was 2.13, and his WHIP was 1.03.

His K/9 average was 9.9, which shows the amount of strikeouts he has is no fluke.

Worley played in 16 games for his AAA team, and compiled 96 innings.

He went 6-5, with a 3.00 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.14.

Both players have very impressive minor league statistics, which shows their ability to continue performing well.

Compared to Other Rookies

Other pitchers with amazing rookie seasons can be compared to Worley and Beachy.

In 2005, Huston Street won the Rookie of the Year award with a 5-1 record and a 1.72 ERA.

Since then, his record is 25-19, and his career ERA is 3.11.

Justin Verlander won the award the year after Street, with a 17-9 record and an ERA of 3.63.

In his career, Verlander is 99-57, with a 3.58 ERA, and is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Dontrelle Willis was a top prospect, and in his rookie year, he went 14-6, with a 3.30 ERA.

He has since struggled a bit, and has a career record of 71-64, and an ERA of 4.10.

Kerry Wood was also the Rookie of the Year, in 1998, and he went 13-6 with a 3.40 ERA that season.

Since then, he has gone 84-73, with a 3.66 ERA.

The numbers of these pitchers who were all top rookies in the past ten years makes it seem even more likely for Beachy and Worley to keep up their great numbers.

Conclusion and Analysis

In an overall analysis of the the performance of the two pitchers, they should both have very bright futures ahead of them.

This year, their performances have been amazing, especially for rookies.

In terms of this season, both players will make a good case for Rookie of the Year. They may, however, be routed by Freddie Freeman or Craig Kimbrel.

Both Beachy and Worley have the potential to become aces of their teams, which is saying quite a bit, considering the pitching staffs of the Braves and the Phillies.

With fairly low expectations, it seems quite amazing how well the two pitchers have been doing this season.

It is impossible to tell how they will pitch in the future, however, it seems very likely that they will both continue to pitch similarly to their current performances.