2011 Fantasy Football: Defensive Trends (2008-2010)

With 272 tackles and 11 interceptions in eight seasons, Nnamdi Asomugha is perceived as the golden ticket in this free agent blitzkrieg that is enveloping the NFL.

The obsession with the Raiders’ cornerback resets the NFL’s “defense wins championship” mantra. But it’s within fantasy football leagues where owners adopt an “exploiting opposing defenses wins championships” philosophy.

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Recently, I dissected the defensive stats of all 32 teams versus the pass and run over the last three seasons. In the tables below, I assigned each team a pass and rush defense composite rating. The ratings are the teams' average defensive rank from 2008-2010.

So, for example, the Buffalo Bills composite pass rating is six (above average) and rush rating is 28 (below average).

To take the study a step further, I averaged out each divisions’ pass and rush ratings. When it comes time to draft a fantasy team, this could assist owners in choosing between Player A and Player B.

Why?

If you knew a division is weak versus the pass and/or rush, perhaps you draft a running back or wide receiver from that division who will face a subpar 3-4 or secondary six times a season.

East	Pass 3-YR Rating	Rush 3-YR Rating
Buffalo	6	28
New England	17.66	13
Miami	19	11.66
New York Jets	12	6
AFC East Composite	13.67	14.67
North	Pass 3-YR Rating	Rush 3-YR Rating
Cleveland	20.33	27.66
Baltimore	10.66	4.33
Pittsburgh	9.66	2
Cincinnati	11.66	15.66
AFC North Composite	13.08	12.40
South	Pass 3-YR Rating	Rush 3-YR Rating
Indianapolis	11	24.33
Tennessee	23	12
Jacksonville	26.33	18.33
Houston	22.33	15.66
AFC South Composite	20.67	17.58
West	Pass 3-YR Rating	Rush 3-YR Rating
Oakland	6.33	29.66
San Diego	14.33	11.66
Kansas City	22.33	25
Denver	18	28
AFC West Composite	15.25	23.58

If you ever wondered why Peyton Manning is a highly coveted and successful fantasy quarterback, just take a look at the pass defense in the AFC South. The Titans', Jaguars' and Texans’ pass defense all rank in the bottom 10 over the past three seasons. Manning’s status to start the regular season on time is in limbo (neck), but if he can go, the Colts' QB should enjoy soft coverage at least six times in 2011.

Pittsburgh’s and Baltimore’s lockdown rush defenses may cause owners to devalue the likes of Cedric Benson (or whomever the Bengals running back is) and Peyton Hillis when four games come against two top five rush defenses.

On the flip side, Ryan Mathews’ and Mike Tolbert’s stock may skyrocket knowing the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos rush defenses are among the worst in the league.

East	Pass 3-YR Rating	Rush 3-YR Rating
New York Giants	11	10.33
Philadelphia	11.66	9.33
Washington	15.33	16.66
Dallas	17	9.33
NFL East Composite	13.75	11.41
North	Pass 3-YR Rating	Rush 3-YR Rating
Green Bay	7.33	15
Minnesota	15.33	4
Detroit	25	27
Chicago	21	10
NFC North Composite	17.17	14
South	Pass 3-YR Rating	Rush 3-YR Rating
Atlanta	23.66	15.66
Carolina	10.33	21.66
New Orleans	17.66	18
Tampa Bay	7	26.33
NFC South Composite	14.66	20.41
West	Pass 3-YR Rating	Rush 3-YR Rating
San Francisco	21.66	8.33
Seattle	29.66	18
Arizona	22.60	21
St. Louis	21	24.33
NFC West Composite	23.73	17.91

The NFC West is the worst defensive division in the NFL over the last three seasons. The Seahawks managed to break into the playoffs with a 7-9 record last winter, but don’t expect a repeat trip if they continue to rank 29th in pass defense and 18th in rush defense. Frank Gore and Steven Jackson owners are drooling.

The NFC East boasts the top rush-defense division since 2008. With the Cowboys and Giants healthier in 2011, expect the division’s rush "D" to improve.

Detroit is building a defense that can compete with their NFC North foes, but it’s going to take time. In 2010, the Lions ranked 16th against the pass (up 16 spots from 2009) and 24th against the run (up one spot from 2009).

The NFC South is vulnerable against the run, too. Atlanta has shown improvement and ranked 10th in 2010, but the Saints, Buccaneers and Panthers have all ranked in the bottom half of the league the last three seasons.

For more information on defensive trends, be sure to check out our Fantasy Football Draft Guide and more specifically our downloadable PDF file.

At the end of the day, whether or not these trends remain intact depends on a few factors such as health, coaching changes, schemes and free agency.

Oh yeah, and if a defense signs Nnamdi Asomugha, with the emphasis on "ugh."