MLB Trade Rumors: Evaluating Hunter Pence's Comparative Value

Despite the seemingly absurd asking price for Hunter Pence, it seems as if the Phillies, Braves, and others are stumbling over themselves to acquire the face of the Astros franchise. Ken Rosenthal believes as many as eight teams are involved in the Pence sweepstakes. When Carlos Beltran was shipped to the Giants on Wednesday, Pence apparently became the only game in town for teams looking for an upgrade in the corner outfield, and the Astros have justifiably sought to capitalize on that.

This post, however, is not about the sort of package that Pence should bring back to the payroll-slashing Astros. Rather, it is about Pence himself, and his performance relative to other names on the market.

For his career, Pence sports a solid but unspectacular .282/.328/.457 (AVG/OBP/SLG) triple-slash line away from Minute Maid Park, and his .286/.323/.444 line in 2011 is right in-line with his career norms. While Minute Maid Park is essentially a neutral ballpark, it is a veritable heaven on Earth for right-handed pull hitters—such as Pence. Any team acquiring Pence must consider this heavily.

As it stands, it appears that the Braves and Phillies are the front-runners for Pence's services. Turner Field (Atlanta's home park) suppresses doubles and home runs for right-handed hitters, and Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia's home park) suppresses doubles and triples (though it is fairly home run friendly). Given that Pence does not offer massive power, it would seem that either team would be acquiring something closer to the road version of Pence.

To put some of this into perspective, Pence's OBP and ISO are just slightly above-average away from Minute Maid Park. This factor is true of Pence throughout his career—a career in which his BB% is below-average and his ISO has trended down each year.

Why has such a player drawn such strong interest? Is it simply a lack of other options?

The Twins are listening to offers on Michael Cuddyer, who has outhit Pence over these past three seasons (122 wRC+ to 120). Granted, Cuddyer is four years older, but both players will make roughly the same amount next season, and Pence is likely to command a far steeper cost in prospects.

The ubiquitous Jeff Francouer could also be moved at the deadline. His 2011 triple-slash line is a virtual clone of Pence's road numbers, sitting at .269/.320/.455 on the year. In fact, his career line is fairly close to Pence's career road marks. Despite having been around for what seems like forever, Francouer is a year younger than Pence, and he likely won't cost nearly as much.

While neither Cuddyer nor Francouer has the name value or appeal as Pence, it seems likely that both could perform similarly to Pence at a fraction of the cost. This begs the question - why in the world would the Phillies or Braves give up top prospects for Pence?