Fantasy Baseball 2011: Can Mat Latos Dominate Again This Year?

Ryan LesterJul 22, 2011

Mat Latos has been good since starting 0-4 with a 4.98 ERA in April.

He just hasn’t been great.

Since that rocky first month of the year, he’s 5-6 with a 3.78 ERA. He was solid in May picking up his most wins (3), but his ERA (3.38) wasn’t special. June (4.82 ERA) was a step above April only because he managed to pick up a couple of wins. July has been his best month for ERA (3.10), but he’s winless in two decisions.

This is a guy that went 14-10 last year with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Obviously those numbers would be hard to replicate because they were so good, but can he be dominant again?

I think it’s going to be tough. In Latos’ 18 starts, he has just two starts in which he pitched at least six innings and allowed one run. He’s had just five in which he pitched at least six innings and allowed two runs. He has yet to have a scoreless start. In order to be truly dominant, you need to be able to shut down your opponent at a much higher rate.

Last year, Latos’ best months were between May and August. His high monthly ERA during that span was 2.37. He was nearly unhittable.

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Then came September.

He was downright rotten that month going 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA. In his cup of coffee in 2009, Latos struggled in August/September, posting a 2-4 record with a 5.56 ERA. Not exactly the trend you’re looking for from a pitcher as you head down the home stretch.

Latos hasn’t been as lucky this year. After posting a .273 BABIP last year, he is at .309 this year. He’s been better this month (.267), but Latos strikeouts are down (9.2 K/9 to 8.2 K/9), his walks are up (2.4 (BB/9 to 3.3 BB/9) and his strand rate is down (77.4 percent to 68.7 percent).

Even if Latos can avoid the fall slump, his offense just isn’t potent enough to count on for wins. Latos has been able to avoid the disaster game this year, so he’s still a must-start. He just won’t be reminding his fantasy owners of 2010, for the most part.

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