Philadelphia Phillies: Why Domonic Brown's Numbers Will Come Up

Bobby Yost@byostiCorrespondent IIJune 27, 2011

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 31:  Domonic Brown #9 of the Philadelphia Phillies on the bases against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on May 31, 2011 in Washington, DC. The Braves won 2-0. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Rob Carr/Getty Images

With his average dropping near the Mendoza Line, the Domonic Brown naysayers have risen once again. Solely looking at a a volatile statistic average, other improvements be damned, in just 120 plate appearances is enough to give up on him again.

Some examples I found trolling through a few sites:

"Dom Brown is batting .208 and not ready for prime time."

"Brown needs some Ironpig time."

"we really dont have time to wait on dominated b in right"

"Dominated Brown LMAO Ain't it the truth."

"How long do we have to keep Domonic Brown on this team?"

Even with his .208 average, Domonic Brown has hardly been dominated. An insane and unsustainable .205 BABIP(batting average of balls in play) is the main culprit for the .208 average. That's the fourth lowest in the majors this year among those with at least 120 appearances. Obviously some regression to the mean lies ahead. ZIPS projections agrees, forecasting a .318 BABIP and .271 average for rest of the season.

Another reason for optimism is his much improved ability to make contact and take walks. With contact percentage now statistically reliable given his 120 plate appearances, it currently sits at over 82 percent, up from the meager 72 percent last year.

As two other key statistics, walk-rate and strikeout-rate, become reliable on the horizon, his 10.8 percent walk-rate and 14.2 percent strikeout-rate is impressive. To put that in perspective, given his number of plate appearances, he is only one of twelve players in the majors with a walk-rate of over 10 percent and a strikeout-rate of less than 15 percent. Others in that group include Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, David Ortiz, Ian Kinsler, and Billy Butler.

Fortunately there still are some patient Phillies fans out there that know he's been unlucky and that young players need their at-bats. It will be interesting to see once Brown gets hot this year or becomes a stud in a couple years, how many of these people will do a 180 and act like they've supported him all along. It will probably be reminiscent of what happened with Cole Hamels from 2009 to today. 

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