Rafael Nadal: Why He Won't Win Wimbledon 2011

Defending champion Rafael Nadal is aiming to retain the Wimbledon title it took him so long to win after those epic battles with Roger Federer.

He won't manage it this year, though. There are some major obstacles in his way. Join me as I go through them and offer my predictions on how this tournament is going to pan out.

He's Exhausted

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LONDON, ENGLAND - JUNE 10: Rafael Nadal of Spain serves during his Men's Singles quarter final match against Jo-Wilfred Tsonga of France on day five of the AEGON Championships at Queens Club on June 10, 2011 in London, England. (Photo by Julian Finney/G

It was good form of him to ring the organisers at Queen's Club and apologise for his relatively poor performances during his truncated run there, but is an extra week really enough recuperation time going into a Grand Slam? If anyone can recover from the gruelling, draining season he's had in such a short time, it's Nadal, but it seems unlikely.

His Form on Grass

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LONDON, ENGLAND - JUNE 10: Rafael Nadal of Spain serves during his Men's Singles quarter final match against Jo-Wilfred Tsonga of France on day five of the AEGON Championships at Queens Club on June 10, 2011 in London, England. (Photo by Clive Brunskill

His form has improved dramatically on grass in the past three years, but in his current exhausted state I can't see him hitting the top of his game on his least favourite surface. (Obviously this is subject to change if he manages to come back firing and raring to go.)

Andy Murray

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WIMBLEDON, ENGLAND - JUNE 18: Andy Murray of Great Britain trains on the Aorangi Practice court at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club ahead of the Wimbledon Lawn Tennis Championships on June 18, 2011 in London, England. The Championships, whic

The major obstacles in his way are the three other top male players in the world at the moment. First of all, Andy Murray in his home Grand Slam had another fabulous tournament at Queen's Club (for the second year running), acclimatising himself to grass and playing in the UK again.

Novak Djokovic

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PARIS, FRANCE - JUNE 03: Novak Djokovic of Serbia hits a backhand during the men's singles semi final match between Roger Federer of Switzerland and Novak Djokovic of Serbia on day thirteen of the French Open at Roland Garros on June 3, 2011 in Paris, Fr

Novak Djokovic wants to restart that incredible winning streak and finally wrest the world No. 1 position from Nadal. He'll be aiming to start that particular campaign in SW19 during the coming fortnight.

Roger Federer

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PARIS, FRANCE - JUNE 05: Roger Federer of Switzerland hits a forehand during the men's singles final match between Rafael Nadal of Spain and Roger Federer of Switzerland on day fifteen of the French Open at Roland Garros on June 5, 2011 in Paris, France.

Finally, there's Nadal's old nemesis, Roger Federer. Everyone thought he was in decline and their fierce rivalry was fading away. Not a chance. Federer looked revitalised during the French Open, and he will want to prove to everyone that the greatest ever is just as good as he ever was.

Conclusion

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LONDON, ENGLAND - JULY 04: Rafael Nadal of Spain with the winners trophy at the Wimbledon Championships 2010 Winners Ball at the InterContinental Park Lane Hotel on July 4, 2010 in London, England. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

That's what I think about Nadal's chances of retaining his Wimbledon title this year. I predict he'll find it very tough going to make it through the fortnight in SW19 if he's not in top physical condition, and I fancy Federer to take back his championship. What do you reckon?