Fantasy Football 2011: 25 Stars with the Highest Bust Potential
If you’re a fantastic addict like myself, this lockout is definitely taking its toll on you. I’m itching to know if we will have a 2011 regular season because, as a fantasy football fiend, I absolutely need it.
Football is life. Life is football. Fantasy is out of this world.
Very few things in this world are better than fantasy football—sex, food and breathing come to mind.
I look forward to the next season’s fantasy football draft the minute the current one is over. There is nothing better than making fun of somebody else’s picks, moaning about somebody stealing your sleeper and attempting to become fantasy football king for the remainder calendar year.
I fully expect the 2011 season to take place, which of course, means we will all get our fantasy football fix.
As we look ahead to the season, let’s take a look at 25 stars with the highest bust potential for fantasy football.
25. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons TE
1 of 25
"2010 Stats: 70 receptions, 656 yards, six touchdowns
"
Tony Gonzalez is a Hall of Fame tight end, arguably the best to ever do it. He will once again be drafted as a top five tight end, but he won’t finish as one.
The Falcons drafted two rookies who will greatly assist this passing attack in wide receiver Julio Jones and running back Jacquizz Rodgers. This offense has a lot of targets for Matt Ryan, finally. This means there will be fewer targets for Gonzalez.
Devil’s advocates will say that it could increase his targets, but I believe Ryan will get his new options involved in the offense early. At this point, Gonzalez just wants to win a ring and will do what it takes to win.
24. David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars QB
2 of 25
"2010 Stats: 2,734 yards, 23 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
"
Jack del Rio and the Jaguars drafted their next franchise quarterback in Blaine Gabbert, which means David Garrard is out sooner than later. Some believe Gabbert could beat out Garrard in the preseason, but that is highly unlikely due to the lockout.
David had a great season by his standards, but the team will be without a true No. 1 receiver. I predict the Jags will be one of the worst teams in the league next year, and expect Gabbert to take over some time around midseason.
23. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers RB
3 of 25
"2010 Stats: 675 yards, seven touchdowns, 22 receptions, 145 receiving yards
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He’s not a star, but you would have never known if you heard people talk about him last offseason. I was proven right as he was frequently injured and fumbled the rock away.
Heading into the 2011 season, with a full year under his belt, people will once again declare him the next great fantasy running back—and he will once again fall flat on his face. This is a pass-first offense that lacks the offensive line to give him the push he needs.
Expect a heavy dose of Mike Tolbert, who I believe will remain in San Diego again as he was extremely productive. The Chargers will look to keep Mathews healthy, but he will be drafted far too high.
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22. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers WR
4 of 25
"2010 Stats: 59 receptions, 755 yards, five touchdowns
"
The Dancing with the Stars winner is on his last legs as a receiver. The offense will flow through Rashard Mendenhall and will no longer feature Hines Ward, as evident by last season's drop in production. Ward’s numbers were down significantly and will not jump up much, if any.
Mike Wallace is the new superstar receiver in Pittsburgh and is the deep threat Ben Roethlisberger wants to feature. Ward is a fine possession receiver and is still a great football player, but he is no longer a great fantasy option.
21. Anquan Boldin, Baltimore Ravens WR
5 of 25
"2010 Stats: 64 receptions, 837 yards, seven touchdowns
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Not so easy when Larry Fitzgerald isn’t on the other side of the field, eh? Boldin’s numbers took a hit heading from Arizona to Baltimore to become the definitive No. 1 receiver.
Although Derrick Mason will be back to help this team embark on another Super Bowl run and the team brought in rookie receivers Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss, expect another up-and-down season out of Boldin.
At this point, he is just a better "real life" receiver than fantasy receiver. He will once again be drafted as a possible No. 1 fantasy receiver, but will not produce like one. He will draw double teams from the secondary, and Joe Flacco is too smart and talented to force passes his way with Super Bowl aspirations.
20. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants RB
6 of 25
"2010 Stats: 823 yards, nine touchdowns
"
Brandon Jacobs had a fine 2010 season despite losing the starting job to Ahmad Bradshaw. It seems like Jacobs will be back, but I expect a down season for this once-bruising back. He is not nearly as dominant in short yardage or goal line situations as he was before the contract.
He is afraid to get hurt and now dances behind the line of scrimmage. It doesn’t help this man-beast that his offensive line is declining at a rapid pace and that the Giants failed to bring in much help via the draft.
Jacobs has a big mouth and could be a big time touchdown vulture, but I expect more of the same tip-toeing and soft Shaun Alexander-type running.
19. Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys RB
7 of 25
"2010 Stats: 800 yards, 48 receptions, 450 receiving yards, one touchdown
"
How could Felix Jones be on a bust list when he was a bust last year too?
Simple.
Too many fantasy players will get caught up in the hype of him being the featured back with Marion Barber possibly out. He is a dual-threat out of the backfield with great home run potential, which is why Jerry Jones selected him and fantasy owners continuously draft him.
Yet once again, just like every other season, he will disappoint mightily. He will not be productive on the field and will, as usual, get hurt.
Expect DeMarco Murray to dominate the touches as he is the better overall talent of the two.
18. Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans WR
8 of 25
"2010 Stats: 42 receptions, 775 yards, nine touchdowns
"
Guaranteed lock to disappoint fantasy owners in 2011. He exploded in 2010, finally living up to the potential many believed he had.
Yet we can only expect this passing attack to suffer, as rookie Jake Locker could be the man lining up behind center at some point. Although many expect Kerry Collins to return, he has to tail off at some point and isn’t much of a threat at quarterback anymore.
Britt has talent, but he’s also somewhat of a head case after being suspended for a short amount of time last year. I don’t buy his breakout season last year and fully expect the touchdown totals to come back down to Earth.
17. Mike Williams, Seattle Seahawks WR
9 of 25
"2010 Stats: 65 receptions, 751 yards, two touchdowns
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"Big" Mike Williams emerged as a go-to stud for Seattle when he was healthy, posting double digit reception outings more than once. I expect a downswing in production from the quarterback position.
More importantly, I expect this team to be primarily focused on running the ball with the tandem of Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett behind an improved offensive line. It is safe to assume this No. 1 receiver will be drafted early, but will only produce similar numbers to last season.
16. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs WR
10 of 25
"2010 Stats: 72 receptions, 1,162 yards, 15 touchdowns
"
Bowe emerged as one of the top receivers in the league as he finally enjoyed his breakout season. He has fantastic talent, but I definitely see a drop in production. This is becoming a complete offense and I expect Jonathan Baldwin and Dexter McCluster to be heavily involved to open up the offense.
This is also going to be even more of a run-first offense with Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. Charles is the true superstar of the offense and Todd Haley would prefer to give him more touches. I would look for him to receive more receptions out of the backfield.
With improving receivers, expect fewer targets for Bowe.
15. Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions RB
11 of 25
2010 Stats: 563 rushing yards, four touchdowns, 58 receptions, 487 receiving yards, two touchdowns
Jahvid Best started out with a bang in the opening two games, but was derailed due to turf toe for the rest of the year. The Lions know he could be a potentially injury prone runner, which is why they traded back into the second round for stud running back Mikel Leshoure.
Expect Leshoure to be the short yardage back, but I predict that he will dominate the touches later in the season as he is an all-around threat out of the backfield.
14. Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals WR
12 of 25
"2010 Stats: 67 receptions, 831 yards, four touchdowns
"
It remains to be seen where Chad Ochocinco will be playing ball in 2011, but as of now we have to assume Cincinnati. He disappointed mightily with Terrell Owens on the field last year in addition to being double covered.
Expect more of the same this year with A.J. Green coming on board to hog targets. He could be without veteran Carson Palmer for the season and instead rookie Andy Dalton.
Although I like Dalton a lot, he would not force passes to keep Chad happy. Look for Ochocinco to be an unhappy camper in 2011.
13. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals WR
13 of 25
"2010 Stats: 90 receptions, 1,137 yards, six touchdowns
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Fitzgerald had a surprisingly fine season last year despite working with a terrible group of quarterbacks. Expect more of the same poor quarterback play, depending on the veteran they bring in—and even then I have my doubts.
With Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams forming a great young, one-two punch, expect the Cardinals to be more of a run-first offense. Arizona also does not have the receiving assistance to take the pressure off Fitz, so expect even more defensive attention for one of the game’s elite talents.
12. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals QB
14 of 25
"2010 Stats: 3,970 yards, 26 touchdowns, 20 interceptions
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Are we considering Carson Palmer retired right now?
Who knows?
Right now, he’s still a Bengal. He refuses to play for the organization, which means he could very well sit out the entire season. He won’t be drafted as high as he was in the past, but somebody will take him thinking he’ll come back midseason or start opening day.
This is an ugly situation that I would surely stay away from come draft day.
11. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans QB
15 of 25
"2010 Stats: 4,370 yards, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
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Schaub put together a great season, but this is a quarterback who has been frequently injured in the past. This offense seems to be transitioning to a run-first offense powered by Arian Foster, which means Schaub will not be throwing as many times per game.
More importantly, this team could use a better option opposite Andre Johnson for Matt to throw to. Although he has produced in the past, it is easy to see that interception total increase as he squeezes passes in to Andre.
10. Brandon Marshall, Miami Dolphins WR
16 of 25
"2010 Stats: 86 receptions, 1,014 yards, three touchdowns
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Brandon Marshall is already having a tough offseason—getting stabbed by his wife and being sent to the emergency room. The road to recovery will already be rough and he was disappointed last year working with Chad Henne.
We can only expect this tumultuous offseason to interfere with his play during the regular season. Marshall was unhappy last year and will once again have another disappointing season.
9. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers WR
17 of 25
"2010 Stats: 46 receptions, 554 yards, two touchdowns
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Talent wise, Steve Smith is still one of the best receivers in the NFL.
Unfortunately, this is a run-first offense with poor quarterback play and zero supporting cast for Steve. He will once again receive a ton of targets as he is seemingly the only option to throw to, but he will be double or even triple covered in every single contest.
It would take a miracle for him to produce another stellar season ever again in Carolina. With his go-for-it-all style of play, he is prone to injury. Without a quarterback to get him the rock, he'll be left pondering retirement if Carolina fails to move him.
8. Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos WR
18 of 25
"2010 Stats: 77 receptions, 1,448 yards, 11 touchdowns
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Brandon Lloyd certainly won’t have nice words for me… but whatever.
Lloyd is your classic example of one-year wonder as he capitalized on the lack of defensive attention and being in a pass-first offense. Now, any one of Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow or Brady Quinn could be the starting quarterback. Although not the worst group of contenders, one can only expect a major decrease in production in 2011.
A journeyman wide receiver, he used to be only good for a couple of circus catches a year. Last year, they happened to go for touchdowns. He’ll be drafted in the first five rounds, but won’t produce nearly the same numbers.
7. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears QB
19 of 25
"2010 Stats: 3,274 yards, 23 touchdowns, 16 interceptions
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The Bears failed to bring in receiver help via the draft and it remains to be seen if they will attempt to bring in a veteran once the lockout is lifted. Cutler had a nice 2010 season with this motley crew of receivers, but defenses will quickly figure out Mike Martz’s all-or-nothing offense.
Jay was beaten down last season and suffered multiple injuries, and we can only expect more of the same as he drops back in the pocket waiting for his receivers to get open.
A major concern is the affect the NFC Championship loss, injury and media beating had on his psyche. He could mentally shut down during the season if he does not find similar success as last season or stay upright.
6. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals RB
20 of 25
"2010 Stats: 1,111 yards, seven touchdowns, 28 receptions, 178 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown
"
Some will feel Cedric Benson is a safe running back as he once again eclipsed 1,000 yards and came close to double digit touchdowns.
Unfortunately, this is not a talented running back as he cannot make plays for himself. He is in a severely declining offense, which could eventually start a rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton.
Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer could be gone, or at least watching from the sidelines, which means the defenses will primarily focus on stopping Benson, which would make this average runner highly ineffective.
5. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders RB
21 of 25
"2010 Stats: 1,157 yards, seven touchdowns, 47 receptions, 507 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns
"
Darren McFadden is another superstar runner in the making, but he has yet to stay healthy in his short career. He clearly bulked up last offseason and I expect more of the same heading into the 2011 season.
Still, it remains to be seen if he can handle the true workload of a featured back, even with added size and strength. McFadden did not fear contact last year and will see additional touches, which could result in more missed games.
His quarterback does not present any threat to opposing defenses, which means he'll face stacked boxes every single week. This spells bad news for McFadden fans.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars RB
22 of 25
"2010 Stats: 1,324 yards, five touchdowns, 34 receptions, 317 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns
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Jones-Drew is one of the most talented and versatile runners in the game, but the lack of threats around him and tendency to get injured mean he will forever be a potential bust.
Last year, he only scored seven total touchdowns and I could see that decreasing in 2011. The Jaguars' offense is declining and could start rookie Blaine Gabbert at some point during the season. MJD is the focal point of the offense and demands a ton of touches, and thus he commands a ton of defensive attention.
He is a bowling ball of a running back and fights for every yard, which is why he is a fan favorite, but also why he fails to stay healthy for an entire season.
3. Arian Foster, Houston Texans RB
23 of 25
"2010 Stats: 1,614 yards, 16 touchdowns, 66 receptions, 604 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns
"
Widely considered a top five selection after his breakout season, Foster is clearly one of the top bust candidates. He caught defenses by surprise but won’t do so again in 2011.
More importantly, we’ve seen this story time and time again with Texans running backs. Domanick Davis and Steve Slaton come to mind as breakout running back studs who quickly disappointed the next season.
Why would Foster be any different, especially when he was not as highly touted out of college due to fumbling issues? Many will point to Foster being a dual threat as a receiver out of the backfield, but so was Slaton.
It is tough to take a Houston runner that high given their history of being major disappointments the following season.
I’ll let the Arian fans take him high while waiting on somebody who has done it more than once in their career. Give me an Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson or Steven Jackson before Foster.
2. Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns RB
24 of 25
"2010 Stats: 1,177 yards, 11 touchdowns, 61 receptions, 477 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns
"
One of the reasons Hillis has a high bust potential is because he will grace the cover of the Madden video game. There is a storied history of cover boys missing significant time due to injury or suffering "down" seasons.
Another reason is that Peyton will no longer catch defenses by surprise like he did last year in his breakout season. He will once again be the focal point of the offense, but every defender will be keying in to stop this bruising train of destruction.
Due to his style of play, he is already prone to taking big hits and risking injury. He is also prone to fumbling the rock as he tries to power his way through all 11 defenders.
Surely to be drafted in the tail end of the first or beginning of the second round, there are plenty of reasons why Hillis will not duplicate his breakout season and will disappoint fantasy players for taking him so high.
1. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles QB
25 of 25
"2010 Stats: 3,018 yards, 21 touchdowns, six interceptions, 676 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns
"
Michael Vick had one of the greatest fantasy seasons of all time, let alone one of the greatest surprise seasons overall ever. Although I expected him to start at some point, I never imagined the remarkable improved accuracy, pocket awareness and vision.
Fittingly, many are penciling in Vick for a first round grade. He is equipped with improved abilities and a top flight offense, yet I expect many to be disappointed with his 2011 season.
He will not replicate or improve on his 2010 season and will not be worth a first round selection. He is still an injury prone quarterback given his style of play. He will try to extend plays too often with his legs, which will result in injury.
Defenses started to defend him much better down the stretch of the season because they had more game film and understanding of his game as the season went on. Now, defensive coordinators will have a full season to look at and game plan to stop him.
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