College Football Week Nine Predictions

Week Nine NCAA Predictions

Scores from every upcoming game

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

October 20, 2008

Each Monday morning we'll preview every college football FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview, are located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook, or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Games of the Week: No. 2 Oklahoma State 33 @ No. 1 Texas 34

In a huge college football weekend, this is the biggest game—by far. Do not let anyone tell you differently.

Our top two teams in the nation (see: Power Rankings) are undefeated Big 12 squads that control their own destinies en route to the national championship. Do not rule out the Cowboys. We have had Oklahoma State in the top 10 for over a month and there is nothing to suggest that this will not be a close game.

The "Pokes" are in the top 10 in the nation in rushing (5.52 ypc) and passing (10.8 ypa) and average 21.25 yards per punt return more than their opponents. At Texas against the best player in the country (Colt McCoy) and facing the second-best rush defense in the nation (1.90 ypc allowed), the Longhorns have the edge.

In the sim, Texas wins 80.2 percent of the time; however, the average score is just a point different. The reason for the close margin is that in the games that Oklahoma State gets ahead by a touchdown or more, it has the running game to control the clock and preserve its lead. Texas lacks that ground game and must win in a shootout.

No. 5 Penn State 28 @ No. 15 Ohio State 16

Ohio State proved us wrong last week with a big win over Michigan State despite our prediction of a close victory by the Spartans. The Buckeyes will have to defy their own numbers again to beat a far superior team in Penn State.

The Nittany Lions have blown out all of their opponents by at least 14 points, yet have not always looked crisp. In Columbus, PSU cannot afford to fall behind by 10 points early like it did to Michigan and expect to come back and win the game against a team featuring Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells. Darryl Clark and the "Spread HD" offense will should take a page from USC and keep the Buckeyes guessing with a balanced attack. The sim thinks that will happen as Penn State remains undefeated 76.9 percent of the time and by an average score of 28-16.

Others

No. 10 Georgia overpowers an underwhelming (kind of like the entire SEC conference outside of Alabama—in the first half of games—this season) No. 28 LSU team in Baton Rouge 75.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 31-20....No. 4 USC actually allows more than 10 points, but still dominates No. 31 Arizona in Tucson 95 percent of the time and by an average score of 36-13....No. 20 Boston College is upset 82.8 percent of the time by a No. 23 UNC team that is playing at home and looking to atone for last Saturday's surprising OT loss to Virginia....And, in one of the closest games of the day, No. 25 Kansas does not quite have enough to overcome No. 14 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders win on the road just 52.7 percent of the time and by an average of 32-28. Is it Saturday yet?

Week Nine Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Virginia @ GA Tech	95	9-38
Colorado @ Missouri	95	9-35
UCF @ Tulsa	95	11-34
SMU @ Navy	95	21-36
E. Michigan @ Ball State	95	17-34
Wyoming @ TCU	95	9-26
UCLA @ California	95	9-31
Kentucky @ Florida	95	7-36
Rutgers @ Pittsburgh	93.8	12-29
New Mexico @ Air Force	93.6	13-32
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois	92.6	13-29
NC St. @ Maryland	87.4	17-33
Auburn @ W. Virginia	86.9	8-22
Boston College @ North Carolina	82.8	15-28
Oklahoma State @ Texas	80.2	33-34
UNLV @ Brigham Young	80.1	21-32
Virginia Tech @ Florida State	78.9	13-24
Baylor @ Nebraska	77.7	26-36
Duke @ Vanderbilt	69.5	12-19
Northwestern @ Indiana	59.3	19-24
WF @ Miami (FL)	58.3	12-16
Rice @ Tulane	58.1	24-29
Oregon @ Arizona St.	57.9	21-25
Louisiana Tech @ Army	56.1	17-21
Minn. @ Purdue	54.1	21-24
Mid Tenn @ Mississippi State	53.7	13-15
Cincinnati @ Connecticut	51.5	22-23
S. Miss @ Memphis	48.6	27-23
Texas Tech @ Kansas	47.7	32-28
Texas A&M @ Iowa State	44.8	26-21
Ohio @ Temple	44.2	19-15
Kent St. @ Miami (OH)	43.8	22-17
C. Michigan @ Toledo	42.1	25-19
Colorado St. @ San Diego State	41.9	22-17
Nevada @ Hawaii	35.5	30-22
Michigan State @ Michigan	34.5	22-15
Alabama @ Tennessee	30.5	22-14
Illinois @ Wisconsin	28	35-24
Notre Dame @ Washington	27.5	26-17
Georgia @ LSU	24.9	31-20
Mississippi @ Arkansas	23.6	31-19
Penn State @ Ohio State	21.3	28-16
South Florida @ Louisville	21	31-18
Fresno State @ Utah State	20.9	32-18
Boise State @ San Jose State	18.4	25-12
Troy @ North Texas	16.5	30-16
Florida Atlantic @ LA-Monroe	13.1	36-19
New Mexico State @ Idaho	12.7	31-15
Oklahoma @ Kansas State	12.3	39-23
USC @ Arizona	5	36-13

 

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