San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants Betting Odds & Picks: October 19th 2008

Game: San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants
Game Time: October 19th 2008 1:00:00 PM
Prediction / Picks: under 46.5
Condition: betting odds must be 46 or better - if possible, play at 47
Courtesy of Ben Burns - A Featured Handicapper at Touthouse.com

Both these teams have seen each of their last two games finish above the total. That has given us some extra line value this week as the over/under number is higher than the key number of 44. In fact, at several shops the line has climbed as high as 47, which is another important number to pay attention to when wagering on NFL totals. Note that last year’s meeting between these teams, which was also an October game played at New York, had an over/under line of just 39. In other words, we’re getting an extra touchdown to work with this season.

Not surprisingly, the defending champs are substantial favorites. That’s noteworthy as we find the ‘under’ at 6-3 the last nine times that the Giants were favored by 10 or more points and 9-6 the last 15 times that they faced a team with a losing record. Looking back further and we find the ‘under’ at a profitable 63-41-1 the last 105 times that they faced a team with a losing record, which is better than 60%.

Both teams figure to run the ball frequently, which will help to keep the clock moving. The 49′ers know that they are a much better team when Frank Gore gets numerous touches. They should be more anxious than ever to get the ball in his hands, considering that O’Sullivan has thrown seven interceptions in his last three games and also that he’s been sacked more times (23) than any other QB in the league. Meanwhile, the Giants have run the ball 30.2 times per game, which is the seventh most running plays in the league. Note that the duo of Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward has already combined for more than 750 yards on the ground. With Eli Manning a bit banged-up and coming off a game in which he was intercepted three times, the Giants should again be happy to feature a heavy dose of the run.

Neither defense was happy with last week’s effort and both units should be fired up to “make amends” for this one. Note that this is an early game (1:00 ET) and that it’s often difficult for teams from the West Coast to “wake up” and put points on the board when their internal body clocks are telling them that it’s still only 10:00 am. Last week, the Raiders were the only West Coast team to play an early game in the Eastern Time Zone. They were limited to only three points. The 49′ers have played one “early” game this season and managed only 17 points. Looking back to last year and we find that they scored 17 points or less in ALL six of their games which started at 1:00 ET, averaging only 14.17 points in those games. I won’t be surprised if they have some trouble scoring again this week, particularly when facing an angry Giants’ defense which comes in allowing just 12 points per game at home. Consider the under.