College Football Week 7 Predictions

Week 7 NCAA Predictions

Scores from every upcoming game

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

October 6, 2008

Each Monday morning will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankingsand links to the pre-season preview are located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 10,001simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. Non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Games of the Week: #5 Texas 28 vs #1 Oklahoma 37
It's finally time for the undefeated Big 12 powers to play each other (and it's not just this game - see below). Simply put, Oklahoma is the best football team in the country. Btb claimed that before the Sooners played Cincinnati and reiterated it even before USC lost to Oregon State. Two of OU's opponents, TCU and Cincinnati, still rank in the top 35 of our power rankingsand Baylor had been #35 before its dismantling this weekend. The Sooners won those three games by an average score of 45-18. The problem for Oklahoma though, is that it plays in the Big 12 and has to face #5 Texas, #8 Oklahoma State, #11 Texas Tech, #27 Nebraska and #29 Kansas just to earn to the right to play against a team like #2 Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. Even though they are our clear #1 team in the nation, we are only giving the Sooners a 35% chance of getting through the rest of its regular season schedule undefeated (which means a 20% chance of winning every game through the Big 12 Championship). Texas is very good. Colt McCoy and the Longhorns offense has looked every bit as good as Sam Bradford and the Oklahoma offense. This game will likely come down to which team has the better pass defense. OU is currently fourth in the nation, allowing just 4.8 yards-per-pass, while Texas is 33rd, yielding 6.1. That edge is enough to give the Sooners the win in the sim 76% of the time and by an average score of 37-28.

#8 Oklahoma State 35 @ #2 Missouri 36
Take the over. For those who have not been paying attention, Oklahoma State is really good. The Cowboys lead the nation with 11.6 yards-per-pass and are third in the country at 6.14 yards-per-rush. Oh yeah, and they have returned two punts for touchdowns and lead all other teams by five yards per punt return. No matter whom they have played, even if you live in Stillwater and bleed orange, Oklahoma State is better than you think. Points will be scored in what should be a classic barn-burner with opposing styles (Oklahoma State prefers to run, while Missouri airs it out). Homefield advantage and style (if Oklahoma State gets behind, it will have to pass and does not want to; if Missouri gets behind, it can keep passing) give the Tigers the slight edge, winning 81.8% of the time, but by an average score of just 36-35.

#15 LSU 19 @ #21 Florida 31
The SEC beats up on itself, but in 2008, it's not necessarily because all of the teams are elite. Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky and even Ole Miss all warrant top 25 consideration, yet none of those teams would intimidate any of the Big 12 unbeatens. In fact, in our power rankings, where every FBS team plays every other FBS team 100 times, the SEC only won 60.2% of its games, while the Big 12 won 68.8%. The point is, that this game is not nearly as important as many thought it would be, especially if Florida wins. I would much rather watch the two games we just discussed. Anyway, Tim Tebow is much better than Jarrett Lee or whoever LSU puts behind center this weekend and that is enough to make the difference this season. Florida wins at home 83.5% of the time and by an average score of 31-19.

Week 7 Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Gardner-Webb @ GA Tech	95	3-56
Iowa State @ Baylor	95	15-36
Arizona St. @ USC	95	13-32
UCLA @ Oregon	95	9-29
Washington St. @ Oregon State	95	7-39
LA-Monroe @ Arkansas St.	95	13-37
Idaho @ Fresno State	95	12-35
Tennessee @ Georgia	94.4	13-33
Notre Dame @ North Carolina	93.9	15-33
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois	93.3	10-27
Colorado @ Kansas	91.1	11-27
New Mexico @ Brigham Young	90.6	13-30
Rutgers @ Cincinnati	90	17-33
Minn. @ Illinois	87.8	22-36
Syracuse @ W. Virginia	87.6	15-30
UAB @ Houston	87.5	24-39
UCF @ Miami (FL)	85.8	10-23
Purdue @ Ohio State	85.7	12-26
LSU @ Florida	83.5	19-31
Oklahoma State @ Missouri	81.8	35-36
New Mexico State @ Nevada	76.7	27-37
Texas @ Oklahoma	76	28-37
Louisiana Tech @ Hawaii	75.8	14-24
Arkansas @ Auburn	73.7	12-21
Temple @ C. Michigan	69.4	15-22
Bowling Green @ Akron	68.8	15-21
Nebraska @ Texas Tech	67	30-36
Utah State @ San Jose State	63.9	17-22
Toledo @ Michigan	62.6	15-20
W. Michigan @ Buffalo	60.1	23-27
Ohio @ Kent St.	59	20-24
S. Carolina @ Kentucky	57.4	14-16
Tulane @ UTEP	50	20-22
E. Michigan @ Army	50	21-23
Clemson @ WF	50	22-18
Troy @ Florida Atlantic	49.9	24-21
TCU @ Colorado St.	45.9	22-17
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State	39.3	19-12
Arizona @ Stanford	38.5	24-18
Michigan State @ Northwestern	38.2	23-17
Iowa @ Indiana	36.9	28-21
Louisville @ Memphis	35.5	29-21
Mid Tenn @ Fla. Int.	33.8	20-13
Kansas State @ Texas A&M	32.7	30-21
Air Force @ San Diego State	29.7	25-16
Penn State @ Wisconsin	28.4	32-21
LA-Laf @ North Texas	27.8	33-23
East Carolina @ Virginia	26.4	20-12
Boise State @ S. Miss	24.8	31-20
Utah @ Wyoming	9.1	30-12
Ball State @ Western Kentucky	6.2	36-14
Tulsa @ SMU	5.9	35-21

 

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynastyfrom WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that - and it's completely FREE for a limited time ($10.95 value). From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school. Play for free today using the promo code BTBGD.

Promo code is valid for new Gridiron Dynasty users in first season only. Offer expires 12/31/2008.

We hope that you enjoy our Beyond the Boxscore feature. As with all of our games, we are willing to listen to feedback and improve this page and content to make it as interesting and user-friendly as possible. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, please contact [e-mail]. Thanks!