NFL Draft 2011: Determining the Minnesota Vikings' QB Future Though the Past

Many have argued over what the Minnesota Vikings will do with their first pick in this month’s NFL draft. Even more have pondered whether the Vikings will use it on a quarterback, and if so, which one?

So let’s look back at the past five NFL drafts (assuming the Vikings wait until the second round to draft a quarterback). If you take a gander at all the quarterbacks in the past five years who have been picked in the second and third rounds of the NFL draft, it looks a little something like this:

Round 2      

2005: None

2006: Kellen Clemons, Tarvaris Jackson

2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton

2008: None

2009: Pat White

2010: Jimmy Clausen

Round 3

2005: Andrew Walter

2006: Brodie Croyle, Charlie Whitehurst 

2007: Trent Edwards

2008: Kevin O’ Connell

2009: None

2010: Colt McCoy

Now, think what you want of those draft picks. You may think they are great, or stars in the making. But, in my opinion, only two of them (possibly only one) had "starting quarterback" ability in this league: Jimmy Clausen and Kevin Kolb.

Now, let’s look at how many quarterbacks were drafted in the first round over the past five years, and more importantly—how many of them are starters to this day.

Round 1

2005: 3 drafted, 3 starters

2006: 3 drafted, 1 starter

2007: 2 drafted, 0 starters

2008: 2 drafted, 2 starters

2009: 3 drafted, 3 starters

2010: 2 drafted, 1 starter

Total: 10 of 15

Many “gurus” have come to the conclusion that ideally, if the Vikings don’t trade up, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert will be gone by the time their 12th pick comes around. So let’s take a look at the past 10 NFL drafts and see who was the third quarterback drafted in each year.

2000: Chris Redman

2001: Quincy Carter

2002: Pat Ramsey

2003: Rex Grossman

2004: Ben Roethlisberger (Round 1)

2005: Jason Campbell (Round 1)

2006: Jay Cutler (Round 1)

2007: Kevin Kolb

2008: Brian Brohm

2009: Josh Freeman (Round 1)

2010: Jimmy Clausen

Now I know what you’re thinking: "Well, these names don’t look so bad. I wouldn’t mind drafting a Jay Cutler or Ben Roethlisberger as the third quarterback taken in the draft." However, you may notice that the quarterbacks who have been starters or have excelled in the league were the third quarterbacks taken in the first round. It’s pretty consistent when you look at it.

So what am I saying? I’m not saying the Vikings need to trade up to draft a quarterback. I believe by evaluating the QBs successfully, and because the position is so deep, we can get a Jay Cutler or Josh Freeman-type talent. However, if we wait to take a quarterback until the second or third round, take a look at the past quarterbacks who have been drafted in those rounds and tell me the likelihood of us getting that Drew Brees-type (who by the way was taken with the first pick in the second round).

Reality is, you can look at potential all you want. But, when the dust settles, second and third-round quarterbacks really do not end up being starters or even outstanding quarterbacks in this league that often.

Now, who do I think we should take after Cam and Blaine have been taken? In the coming days and weeks I will have a synopsis and detailed review of each possible quarterback. Stay tuned.