Clemson-Wake Forest Has ACC Championship Implications

Clemson (3-2, 1-1) at Wake Forest (3-1, 1-0)
Thursday 7:35 PM
Line: WF -2

It has been a bumpy season thus far for the ACC preseason favorite Clemson Tigers, going 3-2 despite being favored in all five contests. Wake Forest is coming off a bye week after a home loss to Navy, 24-17, in a game they were favored by 17. Many thought before this season that this game could go a long way toward deciding the Atlantic Division champion.

Wake Forest Offense vs. Clemson Defense

In a reversal of the past few seasons, Wake is getting it done on offense through the air and is struggling on the ground. Quarterback Riley Skinner is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and averaging 244 passing yards per game. Running back Josh Adams has not had the kind of season head coach Jim Grobe would like, as the Deacons have been stymied on the ground at just 85 yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry.

Clemson's defense is doing a better job stopping the pass than they are the run. The Tigers are giving up 115 yards per game on the ground and 3.4 yards per carry. The middle of this defense is missing its big defensive tackle, Rashaad Jackson, who is out for a few more games, and suffering from a lack of experience at linebacker. The pass defense has been solid, allowing just 200 yards per game.

Clemson Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense

Tiger quarterback Cullen Harper has been one of the biggest disappointments in the ACC this season. The senior has just three touchdown passes to five interceptions and has not exhibited the ability to pass downfield. Clemson's vaunted running duo of James Davis and CJ Spiller has performed well when they have been given holes to run through by their young offensive line. However, with all the talent we thought Clemson has had, they seem to bog down at key times in games and play down to the level of their competition.

Defensively, Wake Forest has done an outstanding job of defending the pass, allowing just 145 yards per game. There is some caution to this figure, considering one-quarter of the Deacons' schedule is against the run-dominant Naval Academy. However, that game against the Mids did not help the Deacs rush defense, which is allowing 149 yards per contest. Wake has been making a killing off opponent turnovers thus far, averaging plus-2 per game.

News and Notes...

This is Clemson's first true road game of the year, having played Alabama on a neutral field. The Tigers are 0-3 against the spread in 2008 and have played two FCS opponents. Clemson is also 0-3 on the over/under as well this season. Both times Wake has not covered the spread, they have been outgained in total yards.

Prediction

The two-point favorite line for Wake tells me Vegas thinks this is nearly an even match on a neutral field, which is surprising considering how underachieving Clemson has been.

Wake's Riley Skinner will not play as poorly as he did against Navy last time out. But under Tommy Bowden, Clemson has a way of rising up after disappointments in a big way (and falling when the stakes are high).

If this game were in November and for the division title, I would be Wake all the way. But I will take Clemson in the upset, with Cullen Harper having a breakout game.

Clemson 24, Wake Forest 20
Clemson Covers +2

Last Week: 5-0 ATS, 4-1 SU
Season: 18-5-1 ATS, 16-8 SU