Washington Capitals: A Peek Ahead to 3 Potential First-Round Matchups

With just five games remaining in the NHL's regular season and last night's shootout loss to the Hurricanes, the Capitals now trail the Philadelphia Flyers by three points. The Flyers have a game in hand, so it appears as if the Caps are destined for the second seed in the Eastern Conference headed into the playoffs.

The Capitals have worked hard all season long, committing themselves to becoming a better playoff team. Washington has transitioned into a trapping style defensive team as opposed to the offensive machine that scored 313 goals just one season ago.

The Capitals are on pace to score 90 fewer goals than last season, but will rank in the top 10 in goals against for the first time in 11 seasons. In fact, if the Caps can hold on to their current goals-against average, they will set a franchise record for the lowest GAA in franchise history.

Last year after winning the President’s Trophy as the NHL's best regular-season team, the upstart Montreal Canadiens bounced the Caps out of the first round of the playoffs. The loss marked the eighth time in franchise history the Capitals have led a series by more than two games and lost.

Washington is just 2-7 in the seventh game over its playoff history and lost a deciding Game 5 to the Islanders when the first round of the playoffs was a best-of-five series.

Every playoff series during Boudreau's era has ended in a Game 7. Boudreau, Ovechkin and company are 1-3 in the series-deciding game. Last season Washington became the first No. 1 seed in NHL history to lose a series after leading three games to one against an eighth seed.

Following the series loss to the Habs, Capitals head coach Bruce Boudreau vowed his team would head back to the drawing board and promised Washington would be a better all-around team this year. Boudreau has stuck with the blueprint that he feels will make the Caps' 22nd trip to the postseason its most successful.

Winning the Stanley Cup will be no easy task for a Washington team that has overcome more adversity this season than at any other time in the Boudreau's four-year tenure. With one more point, the Caps can tie a franchise record (1983-86) of recording 100 points for the third straight season. 

There are still a few question marks headed into the postseason. The power play continues to struggle and the goaltending situation is not yet settled. Boudreau needs to decide between Braden Holtby, Michael Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov.

Last night's loss seemed to complicate Washington's goaltending situation further, as starter Semyon Varlamov allowed a soft goal early in the third period, allowing Carolina to tie the game. The game remained tied until the 'Canes won in the shootout.

Washington's potential first-round opponents do not have a goaltending issue. In fact, all three have a goalie more than capable of stealing a series.

It is possible the Caps will see the Rangers, Sabres or the Canadiens once again. Buffalo’s Ryan Miller, New York’s Henrik Lundqvist and the Canadiens' Carey Price could continue to be the Caps' postseason Achilles heel of being shut down by great goaltending.

Last season Montreal's Jaroslav Halak (now in St. Louis) held Washington to three goals in the final three games during the Caps' first-round defeat.

How will the Caps fare in these three potential matchups? Will Boudreau's bunch and their commitment to becoming a better playoff team through defense work?

I only see one potential pitfall amongst the three teams listed but you will have to slide through the show to find out which one has the best shot of sending the Caps home early, again.

Washington Capitals vs. Buffalo Sabres

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BUFFALO, NY - MARCH 20: Ryan Miller #30 of the Buffalo Sabres makes a save against the Nashville Predators at HSBC Arena on March 20, 2011 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)

With Ryan Miller between the pipes for Buffalo, anything is possible for the Sabres in the second season.  

Miller is 1-2 vs. Washington this season, but his 2.32 goals-against average and .924 save percentage, scare the hell out of a Washington squad that averages just 2.69 goals per game. Including this season Miller is 7-7 vs. Boudreau's Capitals over the past four seasons with a 2.52 GAA.

Miller has not surrendered more than two goals in any game vs. Washington this season. The Caps deposited an empty-netter in the November 17 win over Buffalo but have had very little trouble shutting down the Sabres eighth-ranked offense this season.

With one contest remaining between the two teams on April 2 in DC, the Caps have only allowed six goals in three games.

The Caps are bigger and quicker than the Sabres, but like last year’s first-round opponent, this series could be decided with special teams and goaltending. Overall, the Caps and Sabres will draw even in the special teams department. Maybe a slight edge to the Caps with the league's third-best penalty kill.

Buffalo is ranked 12th on the power play and 15th on the penalty kill. The Caps are 21st and third respectively. The Caps power play, with Dennis Wideman has begun to wake up recently as they have converted 22.2 percent with the extra man in their last 27 attempts.

With Ryan Miller in net and Washington's goaltending situation still up in the air, the Caps may not have time to feel their way through this series. Look for the Sabres to steal one in Washington and possibly lead this series at one point.

This is the series I can see the Capitals simply willing their way to victory. Veteran Jason Arnott was acquired at the trade deadline for the type of series this one could be. His leadership and playoff experience will pay dividends for the Caps and that is why I like Washington in yet another seven-game series.

Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers

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NEW YORK - MARCH 06: Sean Avery #16 of the New York Rangers celebrates a goal that was called back against the Philadelphia Flyers during their game on March 6, 2011 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

In the opening round of the playoffs two years ago, the Rangers had Washington on the ropes down three games to one. The Caps battled back and for just the second time in franchise history won a series in which they trailed by that margin.

The Rangers won this year’s season series, winning three of four games against Ovechkin and company. The Blue Shirts soundly beat Washington by a combined score of 13-0 in two of those contests. This may be the series that sees the young Braden Holtby in net for the Caps. 

The Rangers in the 6-0 win victimized Michael Neuvirth in February and Semyon Varlamov took the 7-0 beating in December.

The Rangers effectively broke the Caps trap in the February game beating Washington with long outlet passes while outworking them in the corners and along the boards. Henriq Lundqvist, who leads the NHL with 11 shutouts, has been known to single-handedly beat the Caps at times.

Lundqvist has beaten Washington 11 out of 17 times in his career, and since Boudreau's arrival is 6-4 with a 2.73 goals-against average. This includes two seasons where his GAAs versus the Caps were well above three.

Ranked fifth, just behind the Capitals in the NHL, the Blue Shirts are almost as stingy as Washington is on defense this season. The Rangers surrender just 2.34 goals per game. Like the Buffalo series, this one could also see the Caps fall behind.

Unfortunately, if the Caps do get down 2-1 or 2-0 with this year’s offense, I do not think a rebound like the one against the Rangers from two years ago is possible.

The Rangers would not mind a first-round matchup against either the Caps or Penguins, as New York is a combined 7-2-1 against both teams this season.

The Rangers are battled tested and after losing the eighth and final playoff spot on the last day of the regular season last year, could be this year’s version of last year’s Flyers.

If the Caps win this series, they will have done so just as they win regular-season hockey games. Washington will have worn down the Rangers with size and speed, again winning in seven games. Do not look for the Caps to start well in this series and unfortunately, if they do not, I would not look for a Caps win either.

Rangers win this series in six games.

Washington Capitals Vs. Montreal Canadiens

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WASHINGTON - APRIL 28: Jaroslav Halak #41 of the Montreal Canadiens shakes hands with Alex Ovechkin #8 of the Washington Capitals following the Canadiens 2-1 win in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals during the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playof

From personal preference, this is the first-round matchup I hope the Capitals land. Washington has handled the Habs with relative ease this season and with revenge on its mind, should dispose of the Habs in this year's first round, should they meet.

The Caps outscored the Habs 11-5 and outshot them 132-107 in taking three out of four games this year. Washington won both in Montreal, as the Habs' only victory came in a shootout in DC. 

While Price has been magnificent this season many Habs do privately wonder if he can hold up in the playoffs. Price has shown signs of tiring late this season. While he was the No. 1 star against Atlanta last evening, Price has surrendered 21 goals in his last seven appearances.

That is more than three quarters of a goal higher than his season average.

The Habs have scored three goals in their last four games and were recently shut out in three straight contests.

Washington scored one goal in each of the final three first-round games last season against the Habs and that was against Jaroslav Halak. Halak is in St. Louis and the Caps will avenge last year's first-round embarrassing loss to the then-eighth-seeded Canadiens.

While nothing has come easy to this year's Washington Capitals, they will have little difficulty in disposing Montreal in five games.