Bears, Packers top NFC North: Week 5 Preview

The Chicago Bears (2-2) are on top of the NFC North Division right now despite blowing two, almost three, fourth quarter leads.  The Green Bay Packers (2-2) are right there with them after starting out the season 2-0.  They beat the Minnesota Vikings (1-3) on Monday Night Football the first week of the season and then pulled away late in week 2 to beat the Detroit Lions (0-3).  No one is out of this division yet, not even the Lions, and that is why Week 5 is an important one for all four members of the NFC North.

Let's take a look at each game within the NFC North for Week 5:

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers  Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 PM ET  Lambeau Field

PACKERS: The Green Bay Packers are coming off consecutive losses for the first time since Week 14 of the 2006 season.  The Packers can't seem to get their running game going so far this year.  Ryan Grant started off the year a little banged up and they have had a couple of tough match-ups the past two weeks, but if the Packers want to start winning consistently they needed to improve in the rushing department.  Aaron Rodgers has been a good quarterback so far this year and I expect that to continue.  He suffered an injury last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but should play this week (Rookie quarterback Matt Flynn has be getting extra reps just in case Rodgers can't go).

FALCONS:  The Atlanta Falcons are feeling pretty good about themselves after already compiling two wins, which is already half of their total wins from a year ago, four.  They start a rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, who has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game and has 2TD and 2 INT so far.  The real offense has been supplied by the running game. The Falcons lead the NFL in rushing yards per game behind off season acquisition, Michael Turner, and Jerious Norwood, who leads the league in yards per carry (7.0) on 34 carries.  On defense, John Abraham leads the NFL in sacks through four weeks of the season. 

ANALYSIS:  The Atlanta Falcons should be able to run all over the Packers defense, which ranks 26th in the NFL against the run.  Matt Ryan needs protect the ball, and give his team every chance it can to put points on the board, in a hostile road game.  The Packers need to establish the run early against an Atlanta defense that ranks 23rd against the run this year.  I think the X-factor in this ballgame is Aaron Rodgers.  If he can show up and play well the week after an injury then the Packers will move to 3-2 on the season.  If not, I think the Falcons can steal one on the road. 

PREDICTION:  Aaron Rodgers showed his maturity through the whole Brett Favre mess, and I think Sunday you will see why the Packers are committed to him.

Green Bay 31 Atlanta 24

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints   Monday, Oct. 6 8:30 PM ET   Superdome

VIKINGS:  Minnesota has already made a big change with their offense this season.  After Tavaris Jackson could only lead the Vikings to 5 field goals in week 2 against the Colts, Gus Ferotte replaced him.  The passing game has picked up a bit the past two games since the change, but everyone knows that Ferotte is not the long-term answer.  Their rushing attack is 6th in the NFL and is lead by All Day Adrian Peterson.  If the passing game can open up bit, you could see Peterson come close to 2,000 yards this season.  The defense is very solid against the run at 3rd in the NFL and is 6th in overall defense. 

SAINTS:  New Orleans has a lot of talent offensively even without number 1 wide out Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey.  This offense ranks 3rd in the NFL and is 1st in passing yards per game.  It really doesn't seem to matter who Drew Brees is throwing to in New Orleans, he is on pace to set the single season record for passing yards.  Reggie Bush has looked superb this season and is catching everything throw his way.  There is so much to say about this offense, but unfortunately, the same doesn't go for the defense, which ranks 27th overall in the NFL.

ANALYSIS:  The Saints will be able to throw all over the Vikings on Monday Night.  They will have to run the ball as well to keep them honest, but I think you will see Brees approach 50 attempts.  That said, the Vikings will be able to run all over the Saints with Peterson and Chester Taylor.  The Vikings have to control the clock and keep Drew Brees and the Saints' offense off the field.  I know it's obvious, but the Saints need to merely outscore the Vikings.  Almost every game with them this year will be a shootout.

PREDICTION:  The Vikings will be able to control the tempo of the game and the clock with their running game and the defense will hold Brees in somewhat in check in this one.

Minnesota 27 New Orleans 24

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions       Sunday, Oct. 5, 1:00 PM ET       Ford Field

BEARS:  Chicago could be 4-0 at this point and in control of the division, but two late comebacks put them at 2-2.  Kyle Orton showed last week that, if needed, he can make the throws to win a ball game.  He has yet to throw for over 200 yards this season (199 last week) but he has a better passer rating than his opposing quarterback this week, Jon Kitna.  The rookie running back , Matt Forte, has been a surprise to everyone except for his coaches and teammates.  He was only the 4th RB  in the history of the game to have both 300 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving in his first 3 games.  Marshall Faulk was the last to accomplish it before Forte.  The defense is very good against the run, but ranks 28th in the NFL against the pass.

LIONS: Detroit is coming off a much needed bye week.  Jon Kitna was banged up in their last game against San Francisco and they are playing their first game since the Matt Millen era ended.  The Lions passing game is the brightest spot on the team and ranks 16th in the NFL.  Their running game is up in the air.  After rookie Kevin Smith failed to rush for more than 48 in a game, it seems they have handed the job over to ex-Bengal Rudi Johnson.  Calvin Johnson, their 1st pick from a year ago, has lead the team in receiving yards in each of the teams first 3 games. The Detroit defense ranks dead last in the NFL.

ANALYSIS:  The Lions must force Kyle Orton to throw the ball and force some turnovers to have a chance at winning.  They must also protect the ball themselves from a Bears defense that has a takeaway in each of its first 4 games.  The bears need to establish the run and dominate the time of possession to keep the only thing that can beat them off the field, Jon Kitna and the Lions passing game.

PREDICTION:  The Bears will have no problem running the ball against the worst run defense in the league.  The defense will force turnovers and Detroit will play from behind much of this game.

Chicago 27    Detroit 17