Fantasy Baseball 2011 Projection: Can Denard Span Bounce Back in 2011?

Eric Stashin

Mar 19, 2011

After the 2009 season, Denard Span appeared primed to entrench himself as a top 30 outfielder. That’s what happens when you hit .311 with 23 SB, 97 R and hitting atop a lineup featuring Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

Maybe the injury to Morneau played a bigger role than we realize…

Maybe the regression of Mauer helped to sabotage him…

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Maybe he just played over his head in 2009…

Maybe it was a combination of all three, but the thinking behind Span certainly is different as we head into 2011. That’s what happens when you post the following stat line in ’10:

629 At Bats
.268 Batting Average (166 Hits)
3 Home Runs
58 RBI
85 Runs
26 Stolen Bases
.331 On Base Percentage
.448 Slugging Percentage
.294 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously, the problems in the middle of the lineup played a role, but Delmon Young also came of age, delivering 112 RBI. The Twins order certainly didn’t lack punch. No, problems rest mostly on the shoulders of Span.

The biggest issue is Span’s OBP, which fell from .392 in ’10 (and .387 in his rookie season). So what happened? First of all was his walk rate, which fell, though not by a huge rate. In ’09 he posted a 10.4 percent mark, which fell to 8.5 percent mark in ’10. It’s a problem, but not one that I would go crazy about.

The biggest issue was his average, though all of the news was not terrible. Span actually lowered his strikeout rate for the third straight season:

2008 – 17.3 percent
2009 – 15.4 percent
2010 – 11.8 percent

That’s a great trend, but the problem is that he suffered from a below average BABIP, especially for a player with his speed. With more balls put into play, his BABIP has a big effect on his average. Had he been able to match his .353 mark from ’09, the results would’ve been impressive.

Of course his ’09 mark may be a bit extreme but so was his ’10 mark. Figure that he comes in somewhere in the middle, meaning an average of at least .290 is quite possible.

Yes, there are still problems. He’s not going to hit for any power. He’s not going to pick up a significant number of RBI. He has speed, but he’s not a 30+ SB guy.

Still, with the Twins lineup, you are looking at player who is going to hit close to .300, score around 100 R and steal 25+ bases? What’s not to like about that? In fact, here is my 2011 projection for him:

.295 (177-for-600), 7 HR, 60 RBI, 100 R, 28 SB, .334 BABIP, .374 OBP, .402 SLG

He’s not an ace option. He’s borderline in shallower formats, but in five-outfielder formats he’s a solid selection in the middle rounds.

What are your thoughts on Span? What are you expecting from him in 2011? Is he a player you would target?

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Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections: