NFL Mock Draft 2011: Will J.J. Watt Jump Into the Top 15?
The NFL Draft is much like a game of chess. Every move that someone makes alters every other move on the board. This is why each team pours overs every prospect and every interview and every possible scenario. All it takes is one pick to go the wrong way and it could affect the next six rounds.
The NFL scouting combine was the next such move. With players being ran through drills and evaluated by the best minds in football there are plenty of players who upped their stock, and plenty more who saw their stock fall.
The question is where did it leave the draft? Is J.J Watt now a top 15 guy? Is Blaine Gabbert a first round stud? Will the Broncos still look to Patrick Peterson? There might be more questions than answers, but it never hurts to take a look and where this draft is headed.
1. Carolina Panthers-Patrick Peterson, CB
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This is a difficult decision for the Carolina Panthers to make, but rumor has it they are very impressed with the Louisiana State University standout. It's true that no cornerback has ever been taken first in the NFL draft. But this is not your normal NFL draft.
Let's not forget that in all likelihood there will be a salary cap for the rookies. This means no more outrageous contracts for a guy who has yet to put on pads for an NFL team. This means that you can draft a guy like Patrick Peterson and not have to justify giving him a $50 million contract.
The other issue is that there is no one else who is an overwhelming number one. Every quarterback on the board has their questions. Nick Fairley didn't blow people away at the combine and while Da'quan Bowers impressed at the combine, he has never been thought of as having number one talent.
Peterson has the potential to be Darrelle Revis and shut down a whole side of a football field. The Panthers could use that if they figure he could be had at a reasonable price.
I realize this concept takes some getting used to, but they are high on him and so it's not out of the question.
2. Denver Broncos-Nick Fairley, DT
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Whether or not the Broncos would have taken Patrick Peterson with the two pick is an unimportant question if he goes one. He would have helped Champ Bailey and given them a formidable secondary. However, now that he's out of the picture they have to turn themselves to their next issue which is their defensive line.
There are no shortage of options in this draft, but John Fox is going to look for an athletic lineman and for that he'll pick Fairley. There was some talk after the combine about the performance of Da'Quan Bowers, but the Broncos have concerns about his knee and that should be enough for them to take Fairley.
Fairley has tremendous upside and the fact that his college time has been a bit limited in length will work out well because he hasn't taken a beating like others have.
Fox selected Julius Peppers many years ago and will be looking for the same explosive guy on the line. It's unfair to compare him to Peppers at this point, but Fox will hope that's a realistic option down the road.
3. Buffalo Bills, Blaine Gabbert, QB
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Buddy Nix, the man who calls the shots in Buffalo has said time and time again he wants a quarterback. A few weeks ago the word was that the Bills were high on Cam Newton.
Now it feels like the Bills would have to be high to take him.
Cam has a tremendous upside but it's marred by the fact that he has flawed mechanics and tanked in his interview for the job. The Bills don't want to waste a third pick on someone who isn't going to come through.
Blaine Gabbert represents the most solid quarterback pick in the draft. He's athletic and he's got great instincts.
I'm not sure that he's the right guy for the Bills considering he played in the spread in college and most spread quarterbacks come into the league and have trouble adjusting.
Still, Buddy Nix wanted a running back last year, and he got one. He wants a quarterback this year.
He'll get one.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals-Marcell Dareus, DT
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There is a whole situation in Cincinnati where the Bengals have to decide what they want to do with Carson Palmer. The easiest option is to let Palmer be traded and get picks for him. If they do that though, they won't have a quarterback.
They could draft Cam Newton, like Mel Kiper has suggested, and let him play behind Palmer for a year and then move him into the offense. Still, I'm not sure they trust Newton. Just considering the adjustment it could take for a spread quarterback to get comfortable, there's no way to be sure he'll be ready in even a year.
Let's also not forget that Marvin Lewis is coaching for his job. He's on a one year deal. He's got to get wins. He needs to either impress the Bengals or impress other NFL teams.
Dareus will help him win now. The Bengals gave up an average of 115 yards a game on the ground last season. Dareus will plug the inside of the line and give the Bengals a chance to grind it out on the ground here. They could end up taking A.J Green, but if Palmer retires, then that pick seems a bit of a waste in the short term.
Dareus works no matter what the personnel is.
5. Arizona Cardinals-Von Miller, LB
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The Cardinals will draft for talent here. It's not to say that they don't need a defensive player, but they would have much preferred to have a prime quarterback waiting here.
The only caveat to their pick is if Blaine Gabbert manages to still be on the board. They would have to consider taking him considering how quarterback starved the Cardinals are.
But if he's gone then Von Miller seems to be a lock here. He's going to fit in well for the 3-4 scheme and help them replace the loss of Joey Porter. There's no doubt that Von Miller has Pro Bowl potential and on a Cardinals team that had trouble getting to the quarterback, he'll help them right out of the gate.
6. Cleveland Browns-A.J Green, WR
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The Browns took some steps forward last season, even if it didn't feel like it. They found a good back in Peyton Hillis and they may have found themselves a quarterback in Colt McCoy.
Clearly, the building for the Browns continues and they will take the next step in the draft by getting an explosive skill position player.
A.J Green is too talented to fall any father than six. What's scary about Green is that for as highly thought of as he was before the combine, he actually manage to exceed expectations with his performance.
He's got amazing size and speed and great body control. He'll command double coverage and he'll be able to stretch the field for the Browns which should give them, and their young quarterback, a chance to really put some points on the board.
7. San Francisco 49ers-Robert Quinn, DE
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Let's keep this in mind as we are analyzing these picks, anything can happen on draft day and that should affect everything that goes on.
Jim Harbaugh is going to find it vitally important to get the 7th pick right. He's going to stay away from a quarterback because too many are question marks to be taken 7th overall.
Da'Quan Bowers is the most talented pass rusher left in the draft, and the 49ers had an immense problem getting to the quarterback, but there are lingering concerns over Bowers knee.
Quinn has no major health problem as the tumor he had in high school hasn't been an issue since. There were some behavior problems but Quinn seems to have learned from his mistake.
The bottom line is Harbaugh is going to want to make his first pick one he doesn't regret and given Quinn's health over Bowers he'll be likely to be happy about it.
8. Tennessee Titans-Da'Quan Bowers, DE
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Now, this is where talent steps up and takes over. The Titans will be looking for help on the line and as much as there are questions about his knee, they know that what Bowers brings to the table is something that can't be passed up.
In truth I thought there was a chance that they would take Cam Newton here, but the more and more I think about it, the more I think it's like asking for the same problems they had with Vince Young all over again.
That's not to say that Cam is the same guy, but if Young didn't work out, why draft a guy almost exactly like him on the field?
Still, there is no reason why the Titans can't make the same pick here and pick up Bowers.
9. Dallas Cowboys -Prince Amukamara, CB
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The Dallas Cowboys were 26th in the NFL in passing yards allowed last year and that has to be addressed in this draft.
There is always a chance the Cowboys could trade the pick, but since there is no way of knowing that we'll assume they keep it.
Jason Garrett will have the offense up and running well now that Tony Romo will be back and healthy, but he'll need a player in that secondary to help them limit quick scores other teams were creating on offense.
The Cowboys will get an instant upgrade in Amukamara and eliminate a big hole in their defense.
10. Washington Redskins-Cam Newton, QB
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This pick is as frustrating to speculate about as it is for the Redskins to make. Here's the way it shakes out. The Redskins are in need of a quarterback since they have decided that Donovan McNabb is too...fat? Lazy? Whatever he is to play the position for him.
So, they have to decide if they want to take Cam Newton or if they are going to take someone else? The problem is that they won't know how long they have with Newton until the Collective Bargaining Agreement is resolved. When that happens is anyone's guess.
So, if the Redskins are convinced it's not getting settled until around training camp time, they could draft someone who can fit in with less transition time.
However, I believe they take Cam and figure the worst case scenario is they have to hold onto McNabb another season and allow him to tutor Newton and help the learning curve.
11. Houston Texans-J.J Watt, DE
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The Houston Texans have had no problems putting points on the board, but keeping them off the board is a whole other story.
With Wade Phillips in as their defensive coordinator they are going to be looking for a guy who can give them another threat on the defensive line. They need someone who is versatile and they need someone who is smart.
J.J Watt is all those things and more. He's impressed this off-season and should be a fine addition in Houston. The last thing they can afford to do is ignore their defensive needs. If they get them addressed they might actually be able to make it into the playoff picture.
12. Minnesota Vikings-Jake Locker, QB
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You have to think about this to arrive at Locker (which could make the same case against him) but it does make sense.
The Vikings need a quarterback in the worst way. There is no reason to think that Locker doesn't work for them here. Either they get him here or they trade down for him. I would suspect that they wouldn't trade down for him and run the risk of not getting him at all.
Plenty of Mock drafts have J.J Watt going here, but I believe Houston takes him earlier.
The Vikings could go with a guy like Julio Jones, but without someone to throw him the ball it's a moot point.
Locker really impressed the Vikings at the combine and he'd have run support and a veteran laden team to help him adjust.
Locker makes sense here. He really does.
13. Detroit Lions, Tyron Smith, OT
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The Lions have two big issues to address in the draft—the cornerback position and the offensive line. With the two best cornerbacks going in the first ten picks there won't be anyone to get with the 13 pick.
This leaves the offensive line which might be a blessing in disguise. While the secondary has been a glaring weakness for the Lions, the offensive might matter more to them in the long run.
The Lions need to see what they have in Matthew Stafford which hasn't been easy considering how injury prone he's been. Keeping him upright next season could give them a chance to solidify the quarterback position and really begin to threaten for the playoffs.
Smith is a tremendous talent that continues to impress a lot of people in the draft. It's possible he goes before this, but if he's there they'll take him.
14. St. Louis Rams- Julio Jones, WR
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The Rams had a breakout season thanks to Sam Bradford living up to the expectations (which in truth I didn't think he would be able to do). However, they are not quite the team they want to be and one of the reasons is they are missing a skill position player to stretch the field.
There are plenty of people who think that Julio Jones could end up going much earlier in the draft than anyone expected but with other teams having more pressing needs Jones will fall here.
Don't be surprised if the Rams pass him up and go for a player on the defensive line, but don't count on it either.They want to see just how good Sam Bradford can be and giving them a route runner like Jones should help to accomplish that.
15. Miami Dolphins-Mark Ingram,RB
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In truth I have resisted the idea that they would take Ingram at this spot. Of course that was because I still had Jake Locker on the board.
Now that Locker is off (at least in my opinion), that leaves the Dolphins with a glaring hole at their running back spot and a guy who can fix it. Ingram is the top back in this draft by a long shot and the Dolphins are probably not interested in filling their need on the free agent market.
If a quarterback is still available at this spot they could take one of them, but if not then Ingram could be a lock.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars-Aldon Smith, OLB/DE
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The Jaguars will be thanking the heavens when they find out that Aldon Smith is still available at the 16 spot. They need someone to help them and while they will certainly look to Ryan Kerrigan as a possible pick, the fact that Smith will be around is enough to seal the deal.
He's a freak physically and he can bring a lot of versatility as he can drop back in coverage and get out on the edge to rush the passer. They need that flexibility.
17. New England Patriots-Ryan Kerrigan, DE
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The Patriots are rebuilding their defense. They have gone younger and it's starting to come together. So, with a pick they stole from the Oakland Raiders, there's no reason why they shouldn't continue their rebuilding efforts.
If there was ever a prospect that fit the Belichick system it was Ryan Kerrigan. He's a lunch pail type of player and one of the smarter players in the first round. Not only will be come in and give the Patriots everything he's got, but he'll adapt to the system well and be the kind of leader on defense that the Patriots need.
If he's there at 17 the Patriots will be crazy not to take him.
18. San Diego Chargers, Cameron Jordan, DE
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The Chargers won't see any pieces on offense to draft at 18 and that's a good thing. They don't need to be lured away from what their real problem is—the defense.
There will be a host of guys at this spot that can help them, but Jordan should be the way that they go because he can help them right out of the gate.
He played in the 3-4 scheme in college, so adapting to their system shouldn't be a problem. He's versatile so he should help against the pass and the run and he's got great athletic ability.
The Chargers want someone who is the complete package and Jordan appears to be that for them.
19. New York Giants-Mike Pouncey
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The Giants are not far away from being a playoff team again. As long as they bring back Ahmad Bradshaw they will have a shot, but they'll need to use the draft to help with another need—the offensive line.
Mike Pouncey provides a option at center and guard for the Giants and that should allow them to get more production out of the running game. With Bradshaw getting top level production it keeps the focus off of Eli Manning and that's where he'll shine.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Justin Houston, DE
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The Bucs found their groove last season with a crop of young talent and they are looking for a way to address their needs on the outside of the defensive line in much the same fashion.
The Bucs have a young team, so letting a guy develop won't be a problem. They don't need a guy who's going to set the world on fire in his first season, just someone who can get better every year.
Justin Houston is the definition of the word "upside." He's raw but he's got amazing size and speed and if he develops he'll be a tremendous pick at 20.
21. Kansas City Chief, Phil Taylor, NT
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Phil Taylor will make the Kansas City Chiefs take a leap of faith if they select him. There is no doubt that the Chiefs are in need of some help in the middle. In order to run the kind of scheme that the Patriots run, they need a big guy in the middle to help against the run.
Phil Taylor, however, has issues with his conditioning. Now, he's been working hard to get his weight down and to show teams that he's serious about playing in the NFL, but everyone gets serious when there is money on the line.
The real question is—how will he work when he's signed for that rookie contract?
The Chiefs, in my best guess, will look to Taylor as the anchor they need in the middle of the line and hope that he's figured out the value of a good work ethic.
22. Indianapolis Colts-Anthony Castonzo, OT
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The Colts are far from fools when it comes to the draft. Their ability to plug in pieces and stay competitive is a testament to the organization.
With the same idea that they are no fools, they also know that they go as Peyton Manning goes and keeping him upright and healthy is paramount to their success. Plus, if they can get the running game going a bit more then they should have increased success.
All those things involve getting themselves a top offensive lineman. The Colts, when they pick here will find out that their best bet is Castonzo. He's got a great motor and good technique. The Colts need someone who can compete for a starting job right away and with a shorter learning time, thanks to the lockout, the Colts will have no trouble deciding on Castonzo.
23. Philadelphia Eagles-Gabe Carimi, OT
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Much like the Colts in the previous pick, the Eagles know that protecting Michael Vick is paramount to their success. Don't be surprised if they trade down from this pick, but if they stay here they'll look at the offensive line.
Protecting Vick isn't as easy as protecting Payton Manning. Vick gets out of the pocket far more than Manning does. But in some ways it's the similar.
Controlling the running game will keep Vick from having to escape the pocket as much. Carimi might be the best run blocking lineman in the draft and so drafting him will give them a much better run blocking offensive line and that could go a long way in sustaining his health.
24. New Orleans Saints: Corey Liuget, DT
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Part of what made the Saints Super Bowl champs two seasons ago was their ability to get to the quarterback. Their all out blitzing by Gregg Williams was helped by the fact that their defensive line was able to generate so much pressure.
This is now an area of concern. They are a solid defensive unit expect for that area. The Saints may not have even considered Liguet before combine, but an impressive showing put him on the map.
Liguet will be an effective pass rusher for the Saints and a quality first round pick.
25. Seattle Seahawks-Jimmy Smith, CB
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If I'm right (and I realize it's a bit of a stretch), then Jake Locker will be gone much earlier than anyone thinks. This will kill Seattle's plans to draft Locker. So, they'll need to look elsewhere. They could draft Ryan Mallet but you can't be sure he's the right guy for their system.
So, if they can't plan for the future, they'll plan for the here and now. That means they'll try fixing the holes they have in their pass defense.
Jimmy Smith is a top talent but he's a guy who's had a ton of personal issues. If there is a team that is just right for him it's Seattle. They have the right coach in Pete Carrol to help get through to him.
26. Baltimore Ravens-Brandon Harris, CB
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Brandon Harris won't be an easy decision for the Ravens to make. Their is a lot of talk that they like Jimmy Smith from Colorado, but the Seahawks like him too and they get to pick first.
So, do they go with an offensive lineman like Sherrod Taylor whom they really like? Or do they address their secondary needs with Brandon Harris, even if he's not their ideal at the position?
The early guess is that they know that they have made some significant movements on the offensive side to get younger. But, they still have to get younger defensively and they need to do it quickly.
Making an improvement in the secondary will really help them as they move forward. Brandon Harris isn't a bad pick at this spot.
27. Atlanta Falcons-Adrian Clayborn, DE
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What does the team without a glaring weakness do for their draft? The answer is find depth. They need to get a pass rusher to help them. It's not something that is killing them, but it's something that they could certainly use.
What might be more important to the Falcons than just how good he is on the field, is the respect the people who have coached him and played with him have for him. The Falcons would be hard pressed to find anyone who has a bad thing to say about him.
Not that kind words are everything, but in a league where plenty of guys have character issues, it's nice to have a guy who's going to work hard and produce results.
28. New England Patriots-Torrey Smith, WR
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The Patriots are lucky enough to have two picks in the first round and they'll use the second one for a skill position player.
The Patriots have plenty of guys who are effective for them with a 15 yard range, but they need a player who can do what Moss did for them.
Smith is a guy who can stretch the field and should be a favorite target of Brady's once he gets into a rhythm within the offense.
Of course, with the Patriots everything is subject to change. They could end up doing virtually anything with this pick and it wouldn't surprise anyone who's watched them draft over the last few years.
29. Chicago Bears- Nate Solder, OT
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If Sherrod is still here at 29, the Bears will wonder if they should take him. Then they'll remember Chris Williams and pass.
When the Bears drafted Williams he had a history of back problems and ended up missing his entire rookie season. Sherrod has the same issues, so they'll go with a safer pick.
They'll be tempted by defensive lineman still left, but they know that Cutler needs better protection and they will have to address that need.
30. New York Jets-Rahim Moore, S
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The Jets will have two options when it comes to the 30 pick.
The first option is to go with a defensive lineman. They have needed an upgrade in their pass rush and getting a first round talent like Muhammed Wilkerson would really do them well.
Their other option is to draft Rahim Moore. He's the best safety by far in the draft and would make an already impossible secondary even worse to pass against. Not to mention the fact that he's an effective blitzer and can help over the middle.
It's not going to be an easy choice, but their is no depth at the safety position, so if Moore is there, Rex will take him.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers-Derek Sherrod, OT
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The Steelers need help on the offensive line. They are team with a series of needs, but none more pressing than protecting their quarterback.
Just because Ben Roethlisberger can take a hit, doesn't mean he should have to. The Steelers will have some concerns about Sherrod but ultimately they'll take him in hopes that the problems with his back are behind him.
32. Green Bay Packers-Ryan Williams, RB
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What do the Packers really need? They have a good offensive line. They have a group of guys who can catch the ball and they are one of the best defensive units in the NFL.
However, they could stand to add depth at the running back spot. Picking Williams might seem a bit of a stretch, but he's a good guy for their offensive. If he adds a little bit of muscle he'll be a good back who runs hard and finishes well.
After they lost Ryan Grant early last season they struggled to get a run game going. They don't want to find out that they have no depth again. The Packers must get better to repeat and getting another back is a great start.
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