Fantasy Baseball High Risk/High Reward: Is Derek Holland Worth the Gamble?

Eric Stashin

Mar 12, 2011

Derek Holland is a name that we’ve been hearing about for the past few seasons. Since posting electric minor league numbers across three levels in 2008 (including 157 K over 150.2 innings), fantasy owners have been waiting for him to erupt onto the major league scene.

Unfortunately, the lefty just hasn’t shown the same potential. In 47 games (31 starts), he has posted a miserable 5.52 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 7.41 K/9. That’s hardly what we have all hoped for, isn’t it?

They’ve tried him out of the bullpen, and they’ve given him his chance to start—it just hasn’t mattered.

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Now, with Cliff Lee in Philadelphia, the Rangers appear primed to give him another opportunity in the rotation. Given his minor league pedigree, you have to wonder if it is worth taking a flier on him given his current ADP (260.09 according to Mock Draft Central). Assuming he wins the fifth spot in the rotation (the rumors of Neftali Feliz getting an opportunity are still hanging out there as we discussed last night), then the answer is a resounding yes.

In 2010, his numbers were actually not that bad:

3 Wins
46.2 Innings
4.44 ERA
1.41 WHIP
45 Strikeouts (8.68 K/9)
20 Walks (3.86 BB/9)
.299 BABIP

His strand rate was below average (69.3 percent), so that alone gives you hope that his ERA can come down a bit. That doesn’t, however, help to explain his poor WHIP.

Over his minor league career, he showed significantly better control (2.57 BB/9). That includes a sterling 2.6 mark in 2010 over 62.2 Triple-A innings. They weren’t only at Triple-A, but at the high-powered Pacific Coast League as well (making his 1.87 ERA look all the more impressive).

Saying that Holland will improve on his control numbers is not a stretch. Would I expect him to match his Triple-A numbers? No, but seeing him right around 3.00 would be just fine. While the BABIP was not overly unlucky, it still would’ve put him in the bottom 35 in the league, had he had enough innings to qualify.

With that type of strikeout rate, there’s no reason for him to post that ugly of a WHIP. I’m not about to put him into the upper-echelon, but at this point in the draft, would you really complain if you are looking at the 1.32-1.34 range? Couple that with a sub-4.00 ERA and there is an awful lot to like in the last few rounds.

Let us not forget about the strikeouts as well.

Holland is not going to be an ace—not by a longshot. But in deeper formats, you certainly could do a lot worse at the tail end of your draft then a 24-year-old lefty with a ton of upside.

What are your thoughts of Holland? Is he a player you would roll the dice on? Why or why not?

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Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections: