NFL Playoffs: How the Jaguars Will Beat the Patriots

Andrew KneelandSenior Writer IJanuary 11, 2008

You may have read Jeremy Green's article over at ESPN recently. He guarantees a Jaguar win come Saturday. It was a great article, and one I agree with completely.

You have probably heard tons of talk about how bad the Jaguars will lose, and none about what chances they have of winning.  Here are four simple facts that will lead to a Jaguars victory Saturday night.

1. The Jaguars want blood.

After going a whopping 11-5 in the toughest division in the NFL, and having nothing to show for it except a Wild Card spot, they want respect. Also, a quick question: how many pro bowlers do the Jaguar's have? Zero. All right, Freddie Taylor made it in by the skin of his teeth thanks to Parker's injury, but I'm sure he doesn't feel too great about it. The Patriot's play in the horrible AFC East. It's a classic David and Goliath tale, and David will be motivated.  

 2.  The Patriot's Defense is Overrated.

Want to know a misleading statistic? Rush defense. The statistic is utterly unreliable when rating a team who blows out teams and forces them to throw the ball for their life. Which is a better accomplishment: a team that allows 3 yards per carry over 2,000 carries or a team that allows 3 yards per carry over only 500 carries. The former is a much greater achievement. When football games are close, teams usually opt to run the ball and hope for clock control. The Jaguars don't get blown out, they play smart ball and don't commit penalties. This will keep the game close, and make the Patriot's try their best to contain the awesome power of Taylor and Jones-Drew.

3. The Jaguars have the second best running game in the playoffs. 

Speaking of Taylor and Jones-Drew, they are pretty good. The Jaguar's have one of the best rush blocking O-Lines in the NFL, and they should open up many holes from which both RB's should often burst through. 

 4. The Jaguar's defense is pretty good too.

This we know from last Saturday's game against Pittsburgh. They held the Steelers to a 1.7 yard average on 26 carries. We know that the Patriot's won't change their spread offense for the Jaguar's and suddenly run the ball 35-40 times, so we hit the weak spot of the whole team: the pass defense. And what's the number one way to stop the Brady, Moss, and Welker trio? Don't let them onto the field. Run the ball and control the football. If your offense is on the field longer than the other team is, chances are that you are scoring more points.

So there it is. Now all that's left is to sit back, relax and watch the upset of the season unfold before your eyes. Right?