College Football Line Moves for Week 5, 9/27/08

Thanks to the UConn Huskies we are back to our winning ways in our picks as we look to nail down yet another winning week against the spread.

That was one heck of a game last night for those who tuned in. For two teams most people don't seem to care too much about, they sure put on a nice show in the effort department in a back and forth battle where the outcome was never really clear until the final minutes.

Randy Edsall's team is now 5-0, does this give them a spot in the polls? I'll give you a little preview, they'll be in mine.

The rumblings in the aftermath of Thursday night's USC meltdown in Corvallis continue. While I hear people wondering how far the Trojans will drop I don't see why it isn't a bunch. I had the Trojans 4th going into last week's poll and that was the lowest of anyone in either bleacher report polls or any AP or USA Today Poll voter. I think the top teams in the country will make a statement today as they do and know they need to do every week.

Please, can the ESPN guys who had already crowned the Trojans champs stop talking like the other top 25 are now more motivated because of the USC loss, that's just silly talk. Like Mark Richt's Bulldogs, Coach Saban's Tide, Coach Meyer's Gators, or Coach Miles' Tigers need any more motivation?; nor do any of the other top teams. There isn't a top coach who isn't a master motivator. Let's take this another step further.

Fast forward to the Penn State locker room tonight around 7:45 EST; Joe Paterno has his Nittany Lions all gathered around for his pre-game pep talk. Any chance it goes like this:

"Well USC lost to Oregon State so we'll move past them in the rankings if we win. We don't want to be like those Trojans anyways, they're just a soft bunch of surfer boys. I hate following Pete Carroll at those coaches dinners also, he's not that funny and I have to act like his jokes are good, you want to talk about pressure. The last one I went to they had that Beef Wellington stuff. I like the beef OK but what's with that Wellington? I thought filo dough was for that nutty thing I ate after I was done with my Gyro. Oh yes, USC lost so we should win so we pass them in the rankings, I know that motivates you guys like no one's business."

Kind of ridiculous when you actually think about putting it into practice. Not sure wher those guys are going with it and maybe they should just admit that everyone else thinks their games are important even without USC. When the Trojans fell off the face of the Earth in the late 80's and all of the 90' we didn't miss them much, I doubt we'll miss them now.

I would also like to thank all of the Oregon State fans for dropping by and saying hi. Also, thanks for taking the time to email me and for making me work overtime editing my Blog comments(I usually just leave the youtube comments). I never knew the F-bomb could be used so creatively especially when you're in a good mood. I would have hated to be around you guys the day after the Penn State game. Sorry, I meant you are a "very bad team" in a good way and I know the Penn State game score was really closer than the one we saw on the scoreboard and Stanford has given you guys the "W"; they didn't want it anyways.

In any event I wanted to talk about some of the line moves and it looks like I have some really good material to work with for some non-pick and non ten top ten's articles that I have been wanting to write for some time since I didn't get a chance to get to much of it here. Here are the line moves.

The line in the Ohio State-Minnesota game has gone from 17 to 19 1/2. I still don't have a pick in this one but if I were to have a lean it's even stronger towards the Gophers. Beanie is back but how much will Tressel let him play? I haven't been to high on Minnesota this year and apparently the bettors and general public aren't convinced either. That being said that's a heck of a lot of points from a team that doesn't cover a lot; any chance it goes to 3 TD's? If it does I'm sold on the Gophers.

The Purdue-Notre Dame game is all over the map and the line is back up to the Irish - 1 1/2 and possibly goes to 2 or more. It opened at ND-3, got to almost a pick, and is now moving back. This seems to be the trend in almost every game today that the lines fluctuated like crazy but eventually made it back to where they started or at least close. I never talk about it but I usually will do a few small parlays so maybe I get a nice line with the Boilermakers to put in at least one of those.

I haven't talked about the Oklahoma-TCU game at all and it's on of the big games today. I have avoided it because I don't like it. As a fan I will be tuning in, as a game picker I'll be avoiding it. The Sooners opened laying 17 1/2 and it's now at 18 1/2, this doesn't help me figure it out at all. Both teams are monsters in the trend department though the Sooners are just 2-5 against the number in their last 7 home games when playing a team with a winning record, however, they have 10 positive trends to more than offset that. TCU has only positive trends and I'm not going to list all 16 of them. This is just a tough call all the way around. If anyone out there has some insight to share let me know.

I have been told I am making the wrong call in the Oregon-WSU game but I'm not going to hedge and I'm going to live with it, good or bad. The person who told me this really knows his stuff and uses a wonderful methodology based on the premise that most people have no idea what they're talking about when it comes to college football. While I've never heard him say this I think that like me he thinks the general public would be fine with giving their wallet to anyone on Gameday or any network really and let them make their wagers for them. With this being said he may be on to something as the line has gone from Oregon -19 1/2 to Oregon -22, it may even get bigger. I guess I have time to think about this.

The Cal-CSU game is at cal -26 1/2 (27 at some places) after opening at 24. As I've stated earlier I like the Rams in this one as I think their power running game isn't what the doctor ordered for the Bears and while people say they are a different team at home Javon Ringer wasn't exactly stuffed in the Spartan's loss there in the opener.

The line is the Toledo-FIU game is up to Toledo -19 1/2 or 20 depending on where you are after opening at 17. While the Golden Panthers made covering with a big number look easy against nationally ranked USF last week it looks like no one is convinced they can do it again on the road.

Apparently no one out there thinks Washington should be favored by 5 against anyone even at home as the line in the Washington-Stanford game is at Washington -3. This is another one late in the day and while I liked Stanford with the 5 points a little bit earlier inthe week this line looks about right so I'm going to stay away.

The Michigan-Wisconsin line is all over the map and is down to Michigan +5. I liked the Badgers laying a few more as I'm not convinced Michigan can stop the Badgers running game nor effectively move the ball on the Wisky D which is really a miserable combination when you're up against a top 10 team. Maybe I'll parlay the Badgers with Purdue in a Midwestern mid-afternoon parlay.

I've emailed out my pick for Georgia-Alabama so if you haven't received it either check your spam blocker or send me an email and I'll resend it. If you haven't signed up for my FREE newsletter yet you still have time. I'll be around all day watching the action and I'll have my laptop close by so you can still sign up at anytime and I'll get it out to you.

More from Mitch including his Georgia-Alabama pick and his Daily Video Commentary at The College Football Place.