2011 NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Early Surprises... Who Drops?

Despite the unsure nature of the CBA and the possibility of the rookie salary cap, this could certainly be one of the more entertaining drafts on record.

Forget about the Rodgers drop to the Packers, or Thurman Thomas' free fall, or Randy Moss vowing payback on every team that passed him by; this year's draft is more about the circumstances than it is the players.

With no definitive No. 1 QB, this could be a most interesting dynamic on days one, two and three.

Could we witness a repeat of last year's chaotic tumble of Clausen and McCoy?

Will the first QB drafted this year be a bust?

Only one way to find out.  Let the fun begin.

Generally, I do not engage in a mock draft prior to the free agency market, but with all the uncertainty out there, why not take a stab at uncertainty with, well, more uncertainty.

Along with each pick comes a brief rationalization, and of course, I would love to get some feedback.

Please note that this is pre-combine and pre-FA. Some picks are based on the idea that the CBA will be settled and therefore trades can take place.

The Panthers are on the clock: Believe it or not, they really hold the key here because there is so much uncertainty as to who is the No. 1 overall pick.

The question for the Panthers and Ron Rivera is, are they looking to take a dramatic jump next year, or are they willing to take baby steps that will lead to more success in the coming years? They take it to the wire, then select: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn.

Denver: Fox knows the ACC and he knows he needs an up-the-field pass rusher more than a corner: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.

Buffalo: Gailey is trying to install his 3-4, so he needs a middle man with ‘tude, dude. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn.

Cincinnati: This is where things get interesting. Arizona and Cleveland are somewhat disappointed because the Bengals select: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia.

Arizona: This is the first non-SEC pick. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M.

Cleveland: A.J. Green and Von Miller are gone, so they try to trade down, but that doesn’t happen, so they select: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri.

San Francisco: Harbaugh takes a risk, and not with a quarterback. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU.

Tennessee: Conventional wisdom says to get a QB here, but the Titans pick up FA QB and decide to go back to their staple: strong defense. After they re-acquire Haynesworth, they select: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina.

Dallas: Jerry Jones pulls the surprise of the day. He trades Felix Jones for a 3^rd round pick. Then, after his bid to trade down fails, HE selects Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama.

Washington: Again, convention would have you believe that Shanahan drafts a QB, and with son as OC he listens and selects: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri.

Houston: The shouts in NY can be heard all the way from Houston, de-fense, de-fense, and they hear the maddening crowd and with Smith gone, they select Marcel Dareus, DL, Alabama.

Minnesota: An interesting position for the Vikings. Do they grab a young QB, or do they draft the top OT out there? Minnesota could drop down to pick up the lost 3^rd round pick (Randy Moss). I think a lot depends on which QB they like, and if he is still there. Jake Locker, QB, Washington.

Detroit: Building a pretty decent team on paper, but will it translate into more victories? The building continues with the selection of Nate Solder, T, Colorado.

St. Louis: Bradford gets another weapon in Julio Jones, WR, Alabama.

Miami: Sporano deletes Jerry Jones’ number from his cell because of the Ingram pick. Dolphins try to trade down, if not, they select Mike Pouncey, G, Florida.

Jacksonville: You have to give Jack del Rio credit—he does his own thing and shirks convention. Del Rio played with this kid’s father. He is in a division that shouts for defense and so he selects Cameron Jordan, DE, California.

New England: What a position to be in, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Belichick trade down…again. However, he likes J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin too much.

San Diego: This is a tricky draft because if the Chargers lose Sproles or Jackson, those areas become immediate needs. I know they have Matthews, but the injuries last year?? Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA.

New York Giants: Coughlin doesn’t have to worry about moving up or down. He stays right here and drafts Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College.

Tampa Bay: Morris looks to continue building a strong defensive front with Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa.

Kansas City: Sometimes when you are sitting at 21 you want to draft for your top need, but sometimes you have to go for best athlete. Hmm, Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue.

Indianapolis: Corey Liuget or Christian Ballard sound good here, but this is pretty much a no brainer, protect the KING at all costs. Tyron Smith, T, USC.  

Philadelphia: The need is on defense, so Reid goes with a guy who has dropped, Prince Amukamura, CB, Nerbraska.

New Orleans: Saints are singing in the streets as Christian Ballard, DT, Iowa falls in their lap. Also, this could be Corey Liuget, which sounds more Cajun.

Seattle: Carroll is pleased to see two OT’s still out there and he definitely needs one. He flips a coin and it’s Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State.

Baltimore: This team suddenly needs defense and if there was a year for defense to dominate the draft, this one is it. They opt for the hybrid Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona.

Atlanta: So close, yet so far. One thing about the playoffs is that they often reveal glaring weaknesses, and for Atlanta it was in the defensive backfield area. There are two or three corners to choose from, but after Amakumara, the talent drops off to 2^nd round talent. They could be tempted to grab a WR, though, thinking like the Colts, Smith realizes his division and opts for a big man to protect Ryan’s back. Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin.

New England: My guess is Belichick gets his wish and trades out of the 1^st round. He doesn’t want to pay two first round draft picks. Denver trades back into 1^st round to draft Brandon Harris, CB, Miami.  

Chicago: Two schools of thought: do you get another weapon for Cutler, or do you protect Cutler? If Martz has his way it’s another target. Lovie pulls the trigger on this one, Danny Watkins, OL, Baylor.

New York Jets: Ryan sticks with defense, Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi.

Pittsburgh: They need better line protection and since Pouncey and other top tier tackles are gone, they go to the next position, Muhammad Wilkerson, NT, Temple.

Green Bay: Yes, they are the reigning SB champs, but they still have some concerns, especially on the offensive line, but the problem is there are no real top tier guys left. The middle of their defense struggled at times, but do they gamble on Heyward from Ohio State? There’s still a need to protect Rodgers too, so Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova.

Well, that’s my take. I encourage comments and by the end of March my Mock Draft 2.0 should be working its way into the lineup.