Why Kevin Millwood Would Hurt the St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright has a sore elbow. It is believed that he will need Tommy John surgery, which will end his 2011 season before it begins.

There are rumors that the Cardinals will pursue 36-year-old Kevin Millwood. What a mistake.

Comparing Kevin Millwood to Adam Wainwright is like comparing the rights of Americans to those of Libyans.

The 29-year-old Wainwright's last two seasons have been among the best in baseball. He won 19 games in 2009 and followed that with his first 20-win season last year. His ERA was 2.53 for those seasons over 463.1 innings with 8.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

Last year, pitching in a hitter's park in Baltimore, Millwood led the league with 16 losses. He won four games with an obscene 5.10 ERA. Of greater significance is that Millwood allowed 223 hits in only 190.2.

The new Busch Stadium in St. Louis is a fairly pitcher-friendly ballpark. The best thing that one well-known baseball "expert" has stated is that "at least Millwood could eat up some innings for the Cards."

The pitching-desperate New York Yankees, in need of both No. 4 and 5 starters, recently offered Millwood a minor league deal that would give him the chance to win a spot in their rotation. Millwood turned it down. It's been reported that he is "waiting for the right widespread panic." His wait may be over.

The Cardinals rotation is now projected to be Chris Carpenter, an ace when he is healthy, Jake Westbrook, young Jaime Garcia, and either Kyle Lohse or P.J. Walters.

Compare that to the Philadelphia Phillies' rotation of Joe Blanton, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay or the San Francisco rotation of Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.

Millwood, if he becomes a Cardinal, figures to be no more than their fourth or fifth best starter.

Kyle Lohse, who is penciled in as the fifth starter, had a worse 2010 than did Millwood. Lohse was 4-8 with a bloated 6.55 ERA. He has a lifetime WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) of 1.431, which does not inspire confidence.

The Cardinals finished five games behind the Central Division-winning Cincinnati Reds last year. The Reds are projected to win at least as many games this year as they did last season.

Even with a healthy Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals would have found it difficult to win the division. Without Wainwright, and with Millwood the No. 4 or 5 starter, Cardinal fans had better hope that Albert Pujols, who wants to become the highest-paid player in baseball history, has the greatest offensive season in baseball history.

Reference

Baseball Reference