USC-Oregon State from a Football Handicapping Standpoint

Top-ranked USC travels to Oregon State as the Trojans invade the Beavers. Sportsbooks have the Trojans as a 25-point road favorite and a total of 51.5-52.

USC is 2-0 straight up and against the spread. Oregon State is 1-2 straight up and against the spread, but the home team has won and covered all three of their games this year.

Oregon State is averaging 3.6 yards per rush, 7.0 passing yards per attempt, and 5.5 yards per play. Defensively, it allows just 5.8 yards per pass and 5.2 yards per play.

Of course, those numbers don’t compare to Southern Cal, which gets 7.8 yards per pass on 6.5 yards per play. The Trojans allow just 1.9 yards per rush, 4.5 passing yards per attempt, and 3.3 yards per play.

“One of the first things a handicapper must evaluate when there is such a large point spread is the motivational factors of each team,” says Mike Godsey, the world’s top football handicapper and part of the Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.

Certainly the Trojans can find motivation in what happened in their last trip to Corvallis. OSU snapped USC’s 38-game winning streak. In fact, Oregon State has won 2-of-3 outright at home in the series, though USC has a 58-9-1 all-time head-to-head advantage.

Godsey, who watches a great deal of game film, says that Oregon State is showing some upside on offense. Quarterback Lyle Moevao leads the Beavers to the No. 1 spot in the Pac-10 in passing offense at 307.3 yards per game.

USC will be without cornerback Shareece Wright with a hairline vertebra fracture. Also, All-American linebacker Brian Cushing is suffering from sundry injuries, the latest a hamstring strain suffered Tuesday. He is questionable.

Here are some betting trends, all against the spread: Oregon State is 0-6 coming off a home win of 17 or more points. However, the Beavers are also 12-3 at home off a home win. They don’t like to see you in September, as they are only 2-11 in the ninth month.

USC is 7-1 following a bye week and 32-15 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards last game.