Michael Vick To Appear on Oprah: The Big Gamble

It comes down to this: On February 24th Michael Vick will appear on "The Oprah Winfrey Show." Vick has been a hot commodity since the untimely end of the Eagles season. 

Earlier this year, you'll recall, Oprah made a very public bet with Piers Morgan that she'd land an interview with Vick before Morgan did. Ironically, it's rumored that cancellation of that bet was a condition of the interview. Michael can't be seen to be promoting illegal gambling.

Speaking of gambling, this is one of the biggest gambles Vick will take since leaving prison and signing with the Eagles. While many have forgiven Vick for his past sins, many still passionately hold on to the awful things in Vick's past.

And here is where he walks into the fire.

Many believe that Vick's forgiveness has hinged not only on his public mea culpa, but on his MVP level play this past season. However, any forgiveness Vick has earned through his play will not translate to the Winfrey audience.

And here lies the danger. Oprah commands an audience of up to 42 million viewers a week, according to some statistics. And while that isn't as high as the 106 million who recently watched the Super Bowl, one has to remember that Oprah gains this audience every single week, and has done so for nearly 25 years.

And here Michael needs to be careful.  Oprah is arguably the most powerful woman on the planet. Her commercial success, of course, is unrivaled  More importantly, the phenomenon of "The Oprah Effect" can make or break Vick. 

Gaining Oprah's endorsement, or in this case forgiveness, can go a long way in Vick's public rehab. Not gaining it could be devastating.

Tread lightly here Mike. In the past few months, you've had a few small comments get blown up. Don't talk about owning a dog again. Don't talk about how what happened has made your life more difficult. Stay humble. Show the world that you've learned your lesson and ask for their forgiveness. 

Remember that Oprah was the King-maker in the last election. She can do it again, if you play your cards right. Or, it can get much, much worse. 

This isn't your NFL crowd. They aren't going to pay attention at all to your QB rating. They only want to know what Oprah thinks. Play your cards right and maybe some of this starts to go away.

Play them wrong and look for more protests and condemnation.