2011 NFL Draft: A Perfect Storm at The Quarterback Position

As the 2011 NFL Draft comes into focus, a "Perfect Storm" appears to be forming at the quarterback position.  Consider the following:

- Never have teams been more needy at the position with as many as ten of the top sixteen team's in search of a future signal caller. (note: some needs are greater than others) 

- Assuming Peyton Manning and Michael Vick are franchised, the free agent pool is barren of optimism with Matt Hasselbeck, Alex Smith and Marc Bulger heading the list.  Without a new CBA free agents won't be able to sign prior to the draft.

- An expiring collective bargaining agreement (CBA) means teams may not be able fill their quarterback needs in the trade market prior to the draft despite an encouraging list of targets headlined by Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, Donovan McNabb and maybe Carson Palmer.  

As a result of the above, teams in need of a quarterback face the prospect of filling the quarterback position with an unproven draft pick or take their chances with a post-CBA trade or free agent signing.  The latter option is especially dangerous for team's such as San Francisco and Arizona which have playoff contender rosters (being in NFC West helps) and a black hole at the quarterback position. 

Based on recent history taking a rookie signal caller is more attractive than ever. The past three years have featured an unprecedented run of early quarterback success. Seven quarterbacks have been taken in the first stanza (2008 Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco, 2009 Matthew Stafford/Mark Sanchez/Josh Freeman and 2010 Sam Bradford) of these draft and six of whom have validated their selections with strong play out of the gate and the seventh, Tebow, was hardly a slouch in three late season starts.  

After Andrew Luck decided to return to Stanford for his junior season, the 2011 quarterback picture became clouded with question marks (nosediving the value of Carolina's #1 pick in the process).  None of the quarterbacks remaining is a “franchise type” worthy of a top five selection in a normal year.  There is quartet of first round contenders but while each has strong physical tools, each also carries a high bust factor.  Here's a snapshot of the four:

- Blaine Gabbert - A strong arm, good size, underrated athleticism and excellent intangibles have made him the top rated quarterback on many early draft boards (including NFLDraft101's).  Despite these strong traits, he is a spread quarterback who threw for just 16 touchdowns this past season while his yards per attempt dropped to 6.6 despite an increase in completion percentage.  Ultimately, he is more of a good than great prospect.

- Jake Locker - Great intangibles, physical tools and pro-style offense experience but struggles with accuracy and reading defenses from the pocket.  Playing behind Washington’s uninspiring supporting cast likely contributed to his inconsistency and possibly damaged his confidence.  In either case, drafting him is more about potential than production.  A year on the sidelines would likely provide him the best chance to succeed. 

- Cam Newton - Arguably the most physically gifted quarterback to come out in recent memory.  Tremendous combination of size, arm strength and athleticism.  His mechanics are remarkably solid too.  On the negative side, he comes out of a very simple offense in which he made very few reads and needs to prove he can handle the mental side of the game and a willingness to put in the time to adapt to the pro game.  The media will focus on the physical gifts but how well he interviews will ultimately determine his draft slot.  May have the highest ceiling of this year's quarterbacks but also the one facing the highest expectations.

- Ryan Mallett – A proto-type pocket passer who is super-sized at 6’7 and has a howitzer for an arm but footwork is a major issue when he feels pressure.  Even more concerning are questions regarding his decision making both on and off the field which he will need to answer during the interview phase of the draft process.

- Honorable mention: Christian Ponder and Colin Kaepernick both of whom's stock is on the rise

Despite the question marks outlined above, barring a CBA agreement, the “Perfect Storm” brewing at the quarterback position will result in team’s drafting this year’s talented but flawed group to fill immediate needs likely thrusting them into action before they are ready.  Don’t be surprised if the final result is a high bust rate.

Chris Maier is Senior Editor for NFLDraft101.com. He can be contacted at [e-mail]. Follow Chris on twitter: nfldraft101