College Football Picks 2008 Week Five, Part One: Mitch’s Predictions

I stand at 50-39-1 against the spread for the season.

I've had better starts and I've had worse ones, but usually I am a strong finisher. Sometimes the run starts early and sometimes it starts late, but, like the sunrise in the morning, it is coming.

Another thing that happens every season is we have a few weeks, like these next two are shaping up, where there doesn't seem to be too many marquee matchups, but throw in the point spread and root one way or another and it might as well be New Year's Day as far as we're concerned.

What we will start to see as the season wears on are favorites opening with big spreads and sometimes huge moves upward from there; it's just that some teams are that good and some teams are that bad.

I've talked a lot on my blog and on my videos that I feel there is a definite top and bottom as there is every year, but I don't think I have ever seen so many teams among the top, and, at the other end, I haven't seen so many really bad teams before, either.

While we've had a few impostors in both groups, I think things have really shaken themselves out. I honestly believe that this is where watching all of those games is really going to come into play.

By seeing all of the action, we've got to see exactly how scores got to be how they were; which teams may have put the ball on the carpet one too many times or were the victim of a bad call, and which teams got blown out and it could have been worse had it not been for an inadvertent whistle or two.

Well, the lines are moving as I type, so I'll get moving myself and pick my first set of games for the week.

USC -23 1/2 at Oregon State (Thursday 9/25/08, 9 EST) 3 Units

This line opened at 21 and moved in a hurry. By the time I shoot the video on Thursday morning to talk about this one, who knows where the line will be. Corvallis can be a nasty place; unfortunately, it may get real nasty in a hurry for Mike Riley and the Oregon State Beavers.

The Trojans are well-rested and ready and while the Pac-10 is usually underrated as its teams don't get the national exposure (and, let's be honest, their start times don't help matters), but this year there is a tremendous drop-off after USC. Oregon State got run out of the building in Beaver Stadium at Penn State, and this one may be even worse than the 45-14 beat down the Beavers took that day.

Oregon State has bounced back from the Penn State game by beating Hawaii, 45-7, but the Trojans have outscored their opponents by an unbelievable 87-10 combined score in their two wins. Oregon State did beat USC by two the last time they played in Corvallis, though, and I doubt Pete Carroll has let his team forget it.

Both of these teams are coming off of a bye and both usually play well off of the week of rest, as OSU is 5-0 against the spread off of a bye week and USC is 7-1. The Beavers have covered their last five in a row at home and the Trojans have covered in four of their last five on the road.

There are a lot more trends in this one, and most continue to offset each other, except OSU struggles against teams with a winning record, going just 2-6 against the spread in its last eight. The problem I'm having is seeing how relevant these trends are, as what I've seen of Oregon State is it looks too young and from what I've seen of USC it looks like a seasoned bunch.

I think we're lucky that there are two games on Thursday night, as this one may not be entertaining for long. The Trojans should romp.

See the rest of Mitch's part 1 picks at The College Football Place (ALWAYS ALL FREE)