TeamRankings.com College Basketball Matchup of the Day: Tennessee at Kentucky
No. 47 Tennessee (15-8) at No. 10 Kentucky (16-6)
Tuesday Feb 8 – 9:00 PM ET – Lexington, KY
Full Matchup Analysis – Tennessee Team Page – Kentucky Team Page
In theory, this should be a fairly easy win for Kentucky, as Vegas has them favored by nine, and our win odds prediction sits at 83 percent. However, few if any teams this season have been as mercurial as Tennessee, and tonight is the night that Bruce Pearl returns from his eight-game suspension. That emotional boost could convince Good Tennessee (the team that won at Pittsburgh) to show up, in which case, all bets are off.
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On the other hand, Kentucky is returning to the friendly confines of Rupp Arena after two straight road losses—the first time a John Calipari team has lost back-to-back games since Memphis lost 4 in a row in March of 2005—and they’ll be eager to avoid a further tailspin.
There should be a lot of energy in this one, with both rivals really needing a win here. Whether that translates into sloppiness or focused intensity remains to be seen, but combine that with the relatively fast pace predicted by our possession-based game simulation, and it should be a fun, up-and-down game.
Game Winner Prediction
Based on our data driven analysis, we believe Kentucky is the more likely team to win this game, with expected win odds of 83.3 percent.
Our win odds predictions are subject to change at any time before the game starts based on breaking news, so always check our Web site for the latest numbers.
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Kentucky favored by 9 points
Over/Under Line: 138 total points scored
If the Vegas odds are efficient, the final score of this game will be Kentucky 73.5, Tennessee 64.5.
Betting Picks
For entertainment purposes, our against the spread (ATS) pick for this game is Tennessee +9.0, with low (50-52%) confidence. Our over/under pick is Over 138, with moderately high (at least 54%) confidence.
Our betting picks are subject to change at any time on account of breaking news or betting line movement, so always check our web site for the latest numbers.
Tennessee Recent Performance
| 02/05/2011 | Alabama | #71 | Home | L 60-65 |
| 02/03/2011 | at Auburn | #276 | Away | W 69-56 |
| 01/29/2011 | at Mississippi | #80 | Away | W 74-57 |
| 01/26/2011 | LSU | #220 | Home | W 75-53 |
| 01/22/2011 | at Connecticut | #8 | Away | L 61-72 |
Kentucky Recent Performance
| 02/05/2011 | at Florida | #20 | Away | L 68-70 |
| 02/01/2011 | at Mississippi | #80 | Away | L 69-71 |
| 01/29/2011 | Georgia | #44 | Home | W 66-60 |
| 01/22/2011 | at S Carolina | #94 | Away | W 67-58 |
| 01/18/2011 | at Alabama | #71 | Away | L 66-68 |
Head-to-Head Results
- These teams have met five times in the last three seasons
- Head-to-head, Kentucky has the better record at 4-1
Home/Away Analysis
- Tennessee is 3-3 overall (3-1 in conference) on the road so far this year
- Adjusting for opponent strength, Tennessee is ranked #36 in our away ratings
- Kentucky is 10-0 overall (3-0 in conference) at home so far this year
- Adjusting for opponent strength, Kentucky is ranked No. 9 in our home ratings
- Tennessee will travel 143 miles to the game site
Team Rankings
| Overall | #46 | #16 | |
| Predictive | #47 | #10 | |
| Last 10 Games | #41 | #29 | |
| Schedule Strength | #30 | #17 | |
| AP Poll | – | #18 | |
| Coaches Poll | – | #18 |
Unlike the biased human polls, our proprietary power ratings algorithms consider thousands of data points about each team, including win-loss record, margins of victory, opponent strength, and home/away/neutral performance.
Team Stats Comparison
Offensive
| Defensive
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Injuries
- Tennessee currently has two players listed on the injury report
- Kentucky has no injuries
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