NFL 2008 Picks: Week 3

The volatility of NFL outcomes continues to show itself. By my count, last week I could have very easily gone 12-3 and just as easily gone 6-9.

For instance, at one point late in the second half last week, Green Bay was actually down 24-25. If Rodgers doesn’t complete a couple of big throws, they don’t pull back ahead and Kitna doesn’t end up throwing several really awful interceptions that get run back.

The score of that game interestingly influences oddsmakers a lot, even though for 3+ quarters the teams were even. This week, we see Detroit getting 4 points from a team whose star receiver is old as shit and Green Bay only getting 3 points against the team that has looked like one of the best in the NFL.

Crazy stuff.

Last Week: 9-6
Overall Season Results: 17-14-0

Sunday

KC (+5.5) at ATL
Just a really un-watchable matchup. Atlanta should have an easy time running the ball.
Pick: ATL

OAK (+9) at BUF
A bit weary of McFadden/Bush going off, but I’ll take Buffalo for the third straight week.
Pick: BUF

HOU (+4.5) at TEN
With VY, Tennessee was always playing to the level of its opponent. Collins seems less likely to make ridiculous mistakes. I can’t believe I just wrote that.
Pick: TEN

CIN (+13) at NYG
Just feels like too many points. After all, that NYG-STL game was not quite as lopsided as it ended up.
Pick: CIN

ARI (+3) at WAS
Campbell and Warner both looked really good last week, but one of them was playing the Miami Dolphins.
Pick: WAS

MIA (+12.5) at NWE
Miami’s whole defense is pretty porous. New England should be able to run this week. And another practice week for Cassel to get in tune with the receivers.
Pick: NWE

TB (+3) at CHI
I just don’t think Tampa’s going to be able to run and I don’t see how Griese can win this game for them.
Pick: CHI

CAR (+3.5) at MIN
Plugging in Gus Frerotte can’t suddenly make you a favorite, can it? Steve Smith is back, to boot.
Pick: CAR

STL (+9.5) at SEA
Oddsmakers keep loving Seattle, but they still don’t have any receivers.
Pick: STL

DET (+4) at SFO
Things went horribly for SF last week and they still came out on top. Niners run D isn’t looking great, but Detroit hasn’t been great on the ground anyway.
Pick: SFO

NO (+5) at DEN
Cutler looks like he’s taking that leap, and New Orleans hasn’t played anyone this good yet.
Pick: DEN

PIT (+3.5) at PHI
Fantastic matchup, if I wasn’t going to the Niners game, I’d absolutely find a place to watch this. I do think Pittsburgh’ll be able to run the ball and control the clock.
Pick: PIT

JAX (+5) at IND
I’d really like to take the points, but I think the offensive line of JAX is just too beaten up to take advantage of Sanders being out.
Pick: IND

CLE (+2) at BAL
I think this is the week Cleveland gets back on track. They played well defensively last week, so should be able to hold Flacco and company down.
Pick: CLE

DAL (-3) at GB
Philly played fantastic last week… and ended up losing. Green Bay doesn’t feel nearly as good.
Pick: DAL

Monday

NYJ (+9) at SD
Rule No. 1: If you have the opportunity to bet against Norv Turner, you take that opportunity.
Pick: NYJ