Mitch's Week Four College Football Picks Part One

After three weeks of college football, we stand at 38-28-1 against the spread and up 10 1/2 units; not too shabby of a start.

Every week has been a learning experience as we try and separate the contenders from the pretenders and find value. We've taken some chances and hit on them, and we've also paid the price a few times going against conventional wisdom.

Although I see plenty of good opportunities, we'll stick to our regular format of spreading the picks out over a few days and hope the lines don't move too much; maybe we'll get lucky in that department as well and some lines will move in the direction that helps us; hopefully we don't need the help.

Michigan State -8 1/2 vs. Notre Dame (Saturday 9/20/08, 3:30 EST) 1 Unit

I like to save the Notre Dame lines for later in the week, but this one is moving up so fast it may be double-digits if we wait any longer, and since we're on the favorite we'll jump on board right here.

The Irish got to 2-0 by beating Michigan at South Bend, but I don't think they can expect Michigan State to be as giving as the six turnovers the Wolverines committed. Michigan State looked stout defensively last week, shutting out Florida Atlantic in a solid push; the ship appears to be somewhat righted in East Lansing just in time for ND's first road game of the season.

Michigan State appears to have the momentum in the series, going 8-2-1 against the spread against the Irish but, more importantly, is 3-1-1 in its last five. While the Spartans have gotten better over that time period, I'm not as sold on the Irish.

While many are raving over Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Claussen, he's thrown four interceptions already this year and I look for him to add to that total this week under the pressure of a Mark Dantonio defense. I normally don't like to jump on board with the public when I see a major line move within the first day (2 points) but in this case I'm right with them on the Spartans.

Iowa +1 1/2 at Pittsburgh (Saturday 9/20/08, 12 EST) 1 Unit

I was as stunned as anyone last week when Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz handed us a cover last week by having his team take a safety late in a game that they were only covering by 1/2 a point at the time; such is life in picking college football. You win some games this way and you lose some this way; I guess this time we were due.

If there's one coach out there who is used to handing out covers, it's Dave Wannstedt, as he hasn't covered at all this season and the Bowling Green team they lost to at home doesn't seem to be any world beater.

Speaking of Pitt not covering, it is 0-4 against the spread in its last four non-conference games and 0-4 against the spread in its last four home games. On top of this, Iowa statistically has the better offense, defense and special teams; it also turns the ball over less. I'm not laying points with Pitt anytime soon.

See the rest of Mitch's Part One Week Four picks at The College Football Place