Can The Bears Win? Another View

Last August, while previewing the upcoming 2010-2011 National Football League season, I tried to separate myself from my Minnesota upbringing and Wisconsin residency in order to write a blog.  I asked the question, “Can the Bears Compete in the National Football Conference North?”

At the time, more people would have predicted the return of the disastrous The Jay Leno Show then would have predicted a Chicago Bears National Football Conference North division title.

After all, Brett Favre had just agreed to return to the Minnesota Vikings, and if any team was going to stop the Purple from winning its third straight division crown, surely it would be the Green Bay Packers. 

But even though I erroneously predicted the Packers to win the division this year, I felt that the Chicago Bears could leap frog over the Vikings, in a large part due to the arrival of new offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

I also believed that Matt Forte would have a much better season than the sophomore slump he suffered the year before and that the Bears defense, especially if Brian Urlacher could stay healthy and new acquisition Julius Peppers could contribute, would be rock solid. 

I also wrote that the Bears’ main problem would be their porous offensive line, which, for the first third of the season, was just that.

Cutler was sacked 27 times in their first seven games, including nine sacks against the Giants and six sacks against the Seahawks, (not surprisingly, both were losses).

Despite holding a 4-3 record after seven games, it seemed as if my prediction that the Bears would be scratching their way back to relevancy was ill-conceived.

But then, something incredible happened. The heretofore pass happy Martz realized that Jay Cutler was no Kurt Warner and Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett were no Issac Bruce and Torry Holt. 

He also realized that his offensive line wasn’t strong enough to hold for those seven step drop pass plays he called when he coached the St. Louis Rams.

Relying on Cutler to throw the ball 35-plus times a game was a recipe for disaster, so Martz started to call more run plays. He started to call for shorter pass plays, eliminating the pressure on Cutler that often resulted in either sacks or interceptions. Cutler went from 27 INTs in 2009 to 16 in 2010.

The defense continued its terrific play and the Bears went from being a much-maligned 4-3 team to, well, being a much-maligned 11-5 team.

Why can’t the Bears, an underdog for this weekend’s much-hyped and much-anticipated NFC Championship Game against the Packers, get much respect?

I think the reasons football fans deny the Bears love to the same extent that ”Tiger Mothers” deny their children love are many.

1. They Weren’t Supposed to be There  As late as week seven, Cris Colinsworth, during NBC’s broadcast of  the Packers’s 28-24 victory over the Vikings, said that despite their records, the Packers and Vikings were the two teams who would be battling over the division title.

2. Lack of Stars The Bears arguably have bigger names patrolling the sidelines, (Lovie Smith, Rod Marinelli, Mike Martz, Mike Tice), than they do on the football field. That’s not the way to generate excitement about your team.

3. One Night Only — Rodgers vs. Favre  Last year some were drooling over a Rodgers-Favre Round 3 in the playoffs. Surely we would get one this year, many said. But instead, Favre was battling injuries, his head coach, a sex scandal, and old age and couldn't survive even the regular season, much less the postseason.

4. Big Collapses  The Bears laid complete eggs during two of their most viewed games, an October Sunday night game against the New York Giants during which their offense gained a total of 110 yards, and a much-hyped late Sunday afternoon game against the New England Patriots that the Bears lost at home 36-7. For many, the images they have of the 2010 Bears season are from those two games.

5. Beating the Unworthy  Despite the fact that they completely dismantled them, the Bears impressed few with their beating of the Seattle Seahawks in the divisional round. Seattle, the experts said, were a terrible team and played like a terrible team. Most seemed to quickly forget how the Seahawks had dispatched of the defending Super Bowl champs just the week before.

It also doesn’t help the Bears’ cause that they lost to the Packers 10-3 just three weeks ago. This weighs on people despite the fact that the Bears had nothing to play for and, being an elimination game for Green Bay, the Packers had everything to lose.

The Bears did have something to play for—keeping a potential threat out of the postseason. The Packers were perceived as a threat to all NFC teams even though they went just 2-3 in their previous five games. But since the Bears failed that test, can they pass a much more important one Sunday in order to reach their third Super Bowl?

Here’s five reasons they could.

1. Their Running Game  The clearest advantage that the Bears have over the Packers is they have Matt Forte and Chester Taylor in their backfield. Matt Forte is more than just a weapon for the Bears — he’s their best offensive player, totaling over 1,000 yards on the ground and 547 yards receiving this season. And while Packers rookie James Starks turned heads with his Wild Card performance over the Eagles, he was far less spectacular last weekend, averaging just 2.6 yards a carry.  Note also that Forte had one of his best games of the season January 2 against the Packers, with 151 all-purpose yards. If the Bears can get similar production from Forte and with Taylor providing some relief, they can win.

2. Their Defense  Football pundits are so high on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense that most of them seem to have forgotten that just three weeks ago, the Bears more than held Green Bay’s high-flying offense in check. They kept them out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. They also kept Seattle, a team that laid 41 points on the World Champs the week before, scoreless for almost three quarters last week. If they can repeat those two defensive performances, anything is possible. 

3. Their Kick Returner  With two defenses as strong as the Packers and the Bears, Sunday’s game could come down to a big play on special teams. If it does, you can count on Devin Hester being the one to make it. Hester returned five punts for 128 yards in the two games against the Packers this season, including a 62-yard TD in the Bears’ week 3 victory over the Packers. If the Packers can score enough points to limit their need to punt the ball as they did last week against Atlanta, then Hester becomes a non-factor. But you can’t count on that against the Bears.

4. History  The last thing Packers fans want to hear about is their team’s recent history in close games. But as much as they may want to shut it out, the truth is unavoidable—the Packers were 2-6 this year in games decided by four points or less. The oddsmakers—and most others—think this game will be decided by four points or less. That doesn’t bode well for the green and gold.

5. The Oprah Factor  Oprah is from Chicago. Oprah wants a Bears victory. Oprah gets what she wants.

But I believe in the end the Packers will prevail and for two simple reasons.

1. Aaron Rodgers is Better Than Jay Cutler  Frankly, it’s not even close.

2. The Packers are Mentally Tougher I keep going back to that 36-7 pasting the now-we-know-they’re-not-perfect New England Patriots laid on the Bears in week 14. I know it was only one week and one game, but the Packers didn’t get blown out a single time this year, (and haven’t been soundly beaten since a 51-29 loss to New Orleans in 2008). They gave the now-we-know-they’re-not-perfect Patriots a very close game the very next week with Matt Flynn under center. That tells me that on the rare occasion that Chicago finds itself outmatched, it might emotionally, physically and mentally surrender. The Packers under Mike McCarthy simply don’t do that. Should the Packers jump out early, I could see them blowing the Bears out. Should the Bears jump out early, I could see the Packers coming back to win it in the end. Either way, I see the Packers winning.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 20.