NFL Playoffs 2011: Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds and Pick

Saturday night’s NFC Divisional round game is sure to be a good one, between two of the most balanced teams in the NFL. Online betting group Sportsbook.com is expecting a competitive game, as Atlanta is favored by 2.5 points.

As I pointed out earlier in the week, the Packers vs. Falcons total opened at 45.5. However, as I pointed out, that number was too high. It has since been adjusted down to 44 points despite 70 percent of the money backing the Over.

You know what that means don’t you? The bookies adjusted that number the opposite way in which the football betting public was betting due to sharps backing the opposite side.

So why did I and the sharps think the Packers vs. Falcons over-under was too high? Let’s take a quick look.

First off, these two teams already squared off at the Georgia Dome in late November. Sportsbook.com was expecting an offensive shootout then, as they listed the Total at 47.5 points. Atlanta ended up winning 20-17, thus covering the Under by 10.5 points. Easy money for the Under bettors.

Secondly, led by Clay Matthews Jr. and Charles Woodson, Green Bay’s defense is dominant and playing their best ball of the season. Their opponents were only able to average 15 points per game this season. Moreover, over their last 10 games, only one opponent was able to tack on more than 17 points on the scoreboard. Oh, and by the way, that team was the New England Patriots. No shame there.

Additionally, led by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have one of the best offenses around. However, they do lay some eggs on occasion, especially on the road. This season they are scoring just 18.3 points per game on the road. No wonder they covered the Under in eight of their nine games away from Lambeau this season.

Atlanta’s defense might not have the star power that Green Bay’s does, but they had a very good season. As a matter of fact, they ranked fifth in the NFL, giving up just 18 points per game. That number dips to 17.4 in the Georgia Dome.

The Falcons don’t have any problems putting the clamps down on their opponents at home. Besides holding the Packers to 17 points earlier this year, they held New Orleans to 17 points and the Ravens to 21 points. Shouldn’t be a shocker that the Under is 5-2 the last seven times they played a winning team at home.

Oddsauthority.com Packers-Falcons free pick and prediction: If you bet the Under at 45.5 earlier in the week like myself, congratulations, we are on the same side as the sharps. It is my belief that 44 points is still a tad bit high. I was expecting this game to open no higher than 42 points.

Take the Under at Sportsbook.com, but don’t wait too long because this one could go down to 43 by kickoff.