Racing at Santa Anita with Marc Doche: Maiden Breaking Thursday

A five-day holiday week of racing kicks off at Santa Anita with a difficult eight race card to handicap that features five maiden races.

Even if they’re difficult to decipher, full fields of horses that have never won offer more betting value than graded stakes races with “mini” fields, which will get another dose of over the weekend.

With temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70’s on a consistent basis for the first time of the meet, it will be interesting to see how the drying out of the track affects how it plays. The first two weeks of the meet have seen predominantly lightning fast tracks with an early speed bias.

Today’s featured race is for newly-turned three-year-olds in an $80,000 allowance optional claiming event running six and a half furlongs down the hillside turf course. All six runners entered competed in a stakes race during their two-year-old season.

Metropolitan Man is listed as the 6-to-5 favorite on the morning line coming off a six-month layoff. After debuting for trainer Vladimir Cerin with a seven-length win at Keeneland, he last ran at Royal Ascot in England where he showed speed early but faded to ninth. He is the likely pace setter again today.

We’re off to the races!

Best Bet of the Day (ROI based off $2 WPS bet)

Race 5 - #8 Working At Night (12/1 ML) – A full field of three-year-old fillies sprint down the hill in this maiden special weight event and we see great value in this daughter of Tiznow trained by Jeff Mullins. She posted the best Beyer of any horse in the field in her last and has continued to train forwardly in the morning. She’s ready to win in the third start of her career and her running action gives her a chance to move up on turf.

Sunday’s Result - Settled for place money with Charlie’s Princess (+$5.40)

Total for 2010-11 Santa Anita meet - (-$26.90)

Late Pick 4

Leg 1 - Race 5 (1,5,6,8,13) - Although our best bet goes in this race, we’ll spread to cover our bases.

Leg 2 - Race 6 (2) - Bottom-level claimers go a mile and a 16th for an $8,000 tag and Super Harmony appears to have found a field he can wire on the return to dirt. Coming off of 16 starts in 2010 and a nice maintenance work last week his soundness is not in question, which on its own is a big advantage in these types of races.

Leg 3 - Race 7 (ALL) - We’ll use all six horses in today’s feature. Although Metropolitan Man should clear to the lead, the extended distance is a concern in his first start back. We’re not too keen on Wealthy Aviator’s chances, but we’ve learned not to leave just one out when punching the ALL button.

Leg 4 - Race 8 (1,3,6,8,9) - Older maiden males “sprint” six and a half furlongs for a $20,000 tag to close the day and we’ll go five deep.

Recap - (1,5,6,8,13) w (2) w (ALL) w (1,3,6,8,9) - Total cost of ticket = $75

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Good luck!

Sunday’s Result — (-$80)

Total for 2010-11 Santa Anita meet — (+$1,739.90)

Total for 2010 Del Mar meet — (-$554.55)