Super Bowl Predictions: What the Philadelphia Eagles Must Do To Become Champs
What a season of plot twists it’s been in Philly. The McNabb trade, the Kolb concussion, the Vick… phenomenon, the New Miracle in the New Meadowlands, the squandering of a chance at a first round bye against the Vikings. Here the Eagles are, banged up, but dangerous as always. After a recent stretch of poor play, they’re hoping for one more plot twist that can carry the franchise to its first Super Bowl.
1. Get Michael Vick at 100 Percent
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Vick sat out the last game of the season with a quad contusion suffered against the Vikings, and as recently as Monday proclaimed he was only at 50 percent. But yesterday, he told reporter that he was “damn near” 100 percent, and coach Andy Reid said he hasn’t been limited in practice this week.
Vick’s importance can’t be overstated. The Eagles are 8-3 when Vick gets the majority of the snaps at quarterback and 2-3 when backup Kevin Kolb does. Kolb looked awful filling in for Vick against Dallas (37.0 rating) and has had an uneven year (76.1, compared to Vick’s 100.2). If the Eagles are to make noise in the postseason, it must be with Vick under center.
2. Keep Michael Vick Healthy and Upright
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The Vikings' ability to get to Michael Vick in the season’s second-to-last game was alarming: Vick was sacked six times and hit six other times (on passing plays). The Eagles seemed flummoxed by the Vikings' blitzes, and that came a week after the Giants effectively flustered Vick in the pocket (at least for 52-plus minutes). In their public comments, the Eagles have treated the Vikings game as a one-game aberration. But in reality it was just the low-point in a year in which the Eagles have struggled to protect the passer.
Eagles quarterbacks were sacked 50 times this year, tied for second-most in the league. Surely, some of this has to do with Vick’s propensity to take sacks while trying to make plays with his legs. But not all of it. The Eagles saw their playoff hopes scuttled last year by their inability to protect Donovan McNabb from Cowboys pressure. If they don’t do better this time around, the Great Vick Redemption Saga of 2010 will meet an inglorious end.
What’s more, they drew a rough first round opponent to right the ship against: The Packers have amassed 47 sacks, tied for second-most in the league.
3. Don’t Abandon The Run
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Do people realize how good the Eagles running game is? They actually led the NFC in rushing with 145.4 rushing yards per game, and led the NFL in yards per carry with 5.5. That’s not just attributable to Vick. LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and backup Jerome Harrison averaged 6.0 yards in his 40 carries.
These gaudy per-carry numbers aren’t just a function of the Eagles usual past-first approach. They rank18th in rushing attempts, near the middle of the pack, and much of McCoy’s heroics have occurred while trying to run the clock out late in games, a situation that often depresses running statistics. Recently, McCoy was recognized by ESPN Stats & Information as the “Best Running Back Facing a Loaded Box.”
But Philly fans know how quickly Andy Reid can abandon the run. In the playoffs, he must recognize that running the ball—runs from scrimmage, along with Vick’s scrambles—is crucial to his team’s success.
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4. Snap Out Of It
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The Eagles' dramatic comeback against the Giants has obscured the reality that they haven’t been very good recently. Really, they’ve played only eight good minutes of football in the last twelve quarters. Sure, they mostly rested their starters in the Cowboys game, but save for one eight-minute explosion, this isn’t exactly a team that’s peaking at the right time.
They’re facing a Packers team that earned an emotional win last week after notching their best performance of the year against the Giants the week before. The trends of the two teams are going in opposite directions, and the Eagles have to reverse this on Sunday.
5. Reestablish The Pass Rush
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The Eagles have 11 sacks over the past six games, but those who have watched their games know the pass rush has been a shell of what it was at the beginning of the year. Brandon Graham’s season-ending injury came right as the first-round rookie was starting to emerge. Trent Cole has trailed off as well; he only had one sack in his last four games before he sat out against Dallas.
Starting with Aaron Rodgers on Sunday, the Eagles will, if they’re lucky, see some dangerous NFC quarterbacks for whom pressure is the best antidote (Brees, Cutler, Ryan). Rodgers can be gotten to; the Packers have allowed 38 sacks this year, three more than the league average.
6. Overcome Injuries on Defense
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The injuries mounted for the Eagles at the worst time. Free safety Nate Allen, middle linebacker Stewart Bradley, and defensive end Brandon Graham have all been lost for the season. These injuries have taken their toll. From Week 12 to 16 (not counting the last game of the year in which most starters rested), the Eagles allowed 366 yards per game, and allowed quarterbacks an average rating of 104.4, compared to season averages of 327 yards per game and an 80.8 quarterback rating.
7. Make Big Plays
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Any team with Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LeSean McCoy will always live or die with the big play. The Eagles are tied for most plays over 20 yards, having produced 80. McCoy leads the league with five runs over 40 yards, and Jackson has six receptions of more than 50 yards. These big plays must continue through the postseason.
8. Hide Dimitri Patterson
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Dimitri Patterson, who had not started a game in five NFL seasons coming into this season, was shaping up as a nice journeyman success story after taking over the starting job mid-year. But he’s been an alarming vulnerability of late. In Week 16 against the Giants, he allowed three touchdown passes in the first half. The next week, the Vikings picked on him mercilessly, and he was benched in favor of Joselio Hanson after one particularly disastrous sequence. (He got his starting job back.)
Patterson’s 12 penalties are tied for most on the team. What’s more, eight of those penalties have come in the last five weeks.
9. Keep The Boo-Birds at Bay
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The Eagles are only 4-4 at home this year (although the season-ending loss to the Cowboys can be chalked up to not playing their starters). Still, everyone knows how quickly the mood can turn sour in Philly, and fans are on edge after the Eagles putrid loss to the Vikings, which squandered their opportunity for a two-seed and first-round bye. If they get off to a rough start on Sunday, the crowd can become a negative factor.
10. Let Vick Be Vick
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The time for “keeping him healthy” is over. The playoffs mean it’s all hands on deck, and the Eagles most important set of hands are Vick’s legs. They need him at his best and most daring to win the Super Bowl. After his regular season, can you really count Vick, and by extension, the Eagles, out?
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