NFL Playoffs 2011 Predictions: Kansas City Chiefs Destined To Face Patriots
The Kansas City Chiefs will appear in their first playoff game since 2006 when they take on the Baltimore Ravens at home on Sunday.
The Chiefs ended the season on a poor note with a lackluster effort in a 31-10 home loss to the Raiders as they suffered their first home defeat of the year.
Baltimore had their own lackluster showing in their final game of the season as they managed a 13-7 win over the Bengals.
Both teams will need to play better if they want to win at Arrowhead this weekend.
Here is a look at some predictions for this weekend's contest as well as my final score prognostication.
Jamaal Charles Will Not Be Stopped
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You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him.
Jamaal Charles finished the regular season averaging 6.4 yards per carry, the second best average in league history for a back with over 200 carries in a season.
Only once was Charles held to an average under four yards per carry this season and that came in a blowout loss to the Broncos.
Charles went over five yards per carry in 12 of the Chiefs 16 games this season and over seven yards per carry in six of Kansas City's games.
Charles wasn't doing this off of big runs alone like some other backs in the league like Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson, he was consistently moving the chains.
The 24-year old picked up first downs on 70 of his 230 carries this season or 30 percent of his carries, compare that to guys like McFadden (20 percent), Johnson (17 percent), Turner (21 percent), Foster (27 percent), MJD (25 percent), and Peterson (25 percent) and you see why Charles was the best back in the league this season.
Charles finished the season averaging 1.5 yards per carry more than Foster and two yards per carry more than Turner, MJD and Johnson. He also finished two yards per carry ahead of Peyton Hillis, the same Peyton Hillis who ran for 144 yards in a game against the Ravens earlier this season.
Hillis wasn't the only back to top 100 yards against the Ravens this season as Foster also went for 100, and while both of those backs had great seasons, neither of them is as explosive as Charles.
Charles should have an increased workload in the playoffs and if the Ravens make it their priority to contain Charles than Dwayne Bowe should find himself in position to have a big day.
Matt Cassel Will Have Plenty Of Time To Throw
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Last weekend the Chiefs were unable to do something that they have done quite well throughout this season, and that is protect quarterback Matt Cassel.
The Chiefs yielded seven sacks to a hungry Raiders defense, upping their season total to 32.
Kansas City had trouble blocking the Raiders much bigger defensive line in both games this season as they allowed 10 sacks total to the Silver and Black. Oakland's defense ranked second in the league this season with 47 sacks, just one fewer than the Steelers.
While most would consider the Ravens defense to be an intimidating group, the truth is they have not been all that productive when it comes to getting to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Baltimore has just 27 sacks this season, the fourth lowest total in the league and 12 fewer than the Chiefs' defense.
Last week's performance by the Chiefs offensive line was not only abnormal, but it was also against one of the best pass-rushing units in the league.
The Ravens do not put pressure on opponents like the Raiders are capable of, so Cassel and Co. should have time to throw on Sunday.
Dwayne Bowe Is Primed To Breakout In The Postseason
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This postseason will tell us a lot about how far Dwayne Bowe has come as a NFL receiver.
Bowe led the league in touchdown receptions this year and he was sixth in the league with 19 catches of 20-plus yards. The 26-year old was also selected to his first Pro Bowl and put his struggles last season behind him.
But Bowe still dropped more passes than Chiefs fans would like and they often came at crucial times.
Bowe cost the Chiefs a victory with his drop at Oakland on third down late in the 4th quarter, a pass that would have allowed the Chiefs to take a knee and run out the clock, instead the Chiefs went on to lose in overtime.
Bowe also dropped a wide open touchdown at Indianapolis in the Chiefs 19-9 loss, had the former LSU star held onto the ball the Chiefs would have taken the lead in the second half and the game may have turned out differently.
Those aren't the only important passes Bowe has dropped this season, but they have been the two biggest and now that the playoffs are here, every pass counts.
Bowe needs to prove he can make plays when all eyes are on him and the game is on the line.
Bowe has a favorable matchup against a Baltimore defense that ranked 21st against the pass this season and he should see some success against a Ravens secondary that has no true shutdown corner.
The D Bowe show is a phrase of the past, but No. 82 needs to prove he is ready for primetime against the Ravens.
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Tamba Hali Will Wreak Havoc In The Baltimore Backfield
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If you want to talk about Pro Bowl snubs then look no further than Chiefs outside linebacker Tamba Hali.
Hali has been doing damage to opposing offensive tackles and quarterbacks all season as his 14.5 sacks this season led the AFC and was second only to DeMarcus Ware's 15.5 sacks for the league lead.
The former Nittany Lion also forced four fumbles, tied with fellow linebacker and teammate Derrick Johnson for 10th in the league.
Hali has moved from side to side this season as he has taken on both right and left tackles at different times this year.
The 27-year old has flourished since being moved to outside linebacker in the Chiefs 3-4 defense and he has fared particularly well against right tackles this season, a position where the Ravens have struggles this year.
Ravens right tackle Marshal Yanda is near the top at his position this season when it comes to blown blocks and Hali should have no problem exploiting him on Sunday.
Chiefs Secondary Will Shut Down The Ravens Passing Attack
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The Chiefs may have one of the youngest secondaries in the league, but they also have a very talented and underrated group back there.
Kansas City's secondary finished the regular season 17th against the pass, but they faced three of the top four passing offenses in the league and four of the top seven, which accounted for six of their games this season.
The Chiefs defense also allowed opponents to complete just 54.9 percent of their passes this season, third lowest in the league, and they held opposing quarterbacks to an average QB rating of 78.1 this year, the eighth lowest in the league.
This could be a problem for a Ravens passing game that is not great in the first place and has no consistent deep threat. Baltimore relies on short passes to keep the chains moving and the Chiefs have been great at limiting their opponents completions this season.
Kansas City did give up a 300-yard passing game to Matt Schaub earlier this season and Philip Rivers threw for 298 yards, but they also limited Peyton Manning to just 244 yards and no touchdowns and Kyle Orton to just 117 yards on 9 for 28 passing.
The Ravens do not have any big play receivers like Andre Johnson and Vincent Jackson who were able to have successful showings against the Chiefs and because of that, Baltimore will struggle to move the ball down the field against the Chiefs through the air.
Veteran Leaders Will Make Up For Playoff Inexperience
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Young players have stepped up big all season for the Chiefs this year and they have been a big part of the team's turnaround to reach the playoffs.
Having an experienced team heading into the playoffs is the preferred route to take, but that is not an option for this Chiefs team so they will have to rely on their veteran leaders that have been there before.
Outside linebacker Mike Vrabel is as experienced as they come after his days with the Patriots and he came to Kansas City to play in games like these. Vrabel has not had a great season but he will be counted on heavily to lead the defense in the playoffs.
The Chiefs offense has some veteran playoff experience, particularly on the offensive line where guards Brian Waters and Ryan Lilja, and center Casey Wiegmann have all played in their fair share of playoff games.
The Chiefs coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel also have a lot of playoff experience, and the Super Bowl rings to match, from their Patriots days so they know what needs to be done to win some big games.
The Chiefs Will Defeat The Ravens On Sunday
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Arrowhead will undoubtedly be rocking on Sunday as the Chiefs play their first home playoff game since 2003.
The atmosphere should be similar to the the Chiefs' Monday night opening week win over the Chargers where the Arrowhead faithful helped will Kansas City to its first victory of the year and set the tone for the rest of the season.
Baltimore has a good defense and they will make it tough for Charles and Thomas Jones to run the football, but Charles can make plays all on his own as he has shown the past two seasons and the Ravens will have their work cut out for them in trying to stop him.
The Chiefs defense is an underrated unit and the Baltimore offense hasn't exactly lit the league on fire as of late, scoring 20 points or fewer in four of their last six contests.
Without a consistent deep threat, the Ravens will struggle to move the ball on the Chiefs and while Kansas City allowed a big day on the ground to the Raiders last week, the defense was stout against players like Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, MJD, Chris Johnson and Arian Foster this season.
Not one of those backs ran for 100 yards on the Kansas City defense or even came that close to it this year, so don't expect Ray Rice to get there either.
If the Ravens manage to slow down Charles than that will most likely mean that Dwayne Bowe and Tony Moeaki will have favorable matchups in the passing game and without a great pass rush, Matt Cassel should have enough time to find his favorite targets.
In the end, the Arrowhead crowd will energize the Chiefs to the victory as Kansas City walks away victorious 24-17, and the win means the Chiefs will head to New England to face the Patriots in a showdown of many former Pats players and coaches taking on their former team. (That is after Peyton Manning takes care of the Jets on Saturday night.)
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