New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons: Brees and Co. Fight for Playoff Spot

The New Orleans Saints, 30-24 losers to the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday, will take on division rival Atlanta on Monday Night Football.  The Falcons are coming off a 34-18 win over the Seahawks and are playing some of the best football of any team in the NFL at this time.

Since this is a divisional matchup and there are playoff implications involved, this should be one of the most contested games in the league this season.  The Falcons come into this game with a 12-2 record and have already clinched a spot in the playoffs.  They can win their division if they beat the Saints this Sunday.

Needless to say there will be a lot of motivation for the Falcons this weekend, but the Saints will be motivated to win this game and keep their hopes of making the playoffs alive.

So who will win this game?  Can the Saints beat the Falcons, end their winning streak and keep their playoff hopes alive?  Let’s find out in this extended preview of the Saints versus the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.

When the Saints have the Ball

The Saints couldn’t keep up with the Baltimore Ravens for the most part last week, because the Ravens did one thing very well. They took away the Saints passing game and forced them to try to run the ball.  Through 14 games, the Saints rushing attack is averaging 95 yards a game, while the Falcons defense is allowing teams to gain 106 yards per game on the ground. The Saints should be able to run the ball in this game—if they want to run it.

The Saints may try to jump out to an early and big lead because of the potency of the Falcons offense.  We all know that New Orleans likes to pass the ball, and they are very capable of doing it, but can they do it against the Atlanta Falcons? 

The Saints are averaging around 281 yards through the air, while the Falcons are allowing teams to gain an average of 226 yards per game. However, that number is a bit skewed because the Falcons' opponents have been forced to make comeback attempts and throw the ball a lot.

But the Saints should be to put up some significant numbers against the Falcons in this game.  The Saints struggled when these two teams first met (their first meeting was in Week three and the Saints lost that game 27-24 in overtime), but they have gotten better since then and should be a much tougher opponent for the Falcons this time around.

Look for quarterback Drew Brees to use all of his wide receivers in this game and prevent the Falcons from concentrating on any one target.  Brees has been a master at spreading the ball around and should be able to do it well in this game.

When the Falcons have the Ball

The Falcons have been winning games with a good mix of running and passing the ball.  Their quarterback, Matt Ryan, is a master at making things happen through the air, and with the league’s best wide receiver (Roddy White) to throw the ball to, this offense does very well against any defense.

The Falcons are averaging 226 yards per game through the air, while the Saints are letting teams throw for an average of 195 yards per game.  For the most part, New Orleans has been very good about keeping teams from passing all over them this season.  But you can expect that the Falcons are going to want to jump out to an early lead in this game, so look for them to open up the game passing the ball as they try to jump out on top early.

The Falcons have been blessed with a nice rushing attack, and it’s spearheaded by running back Michael Turner.  Since Turner came to the Falcons, their running game has been nearly unstoppable when he has been healthy. 

Can the Saints stop Turner tonight?

Atlanta’s rushing attack is averaging 122 yards per game, while the Saints are letting teams rush for an average of 117 yards a game.  If the Falcons want to try to run against the Saints, they shouldn’t have too much trouble.  New Orleans will need to find the right formula to stop the Falcons rushing attack and force them to win through the air.

Analysis

Both teams need this game bad, but the Saints need the win more than the Falcons do.  New Orleans still hasn’t secured a playoff spot, and if they lose this game, it’s going to get difficult for them to make the playoffs and defend their Super Bowl championship.  The Falcons will want to win this game to ensure a No. 1 seed in the NFC and stay at home for the duration of the playoffs.

If the Saints want to win this game, they need to jump out to a big lead right away.  Putting 14 points on the board at the outset would make it a shootout between their offense and the Falcons offense, and the Saints defense could end up having a field day if they can put enough pressure on Ryan.  

Stopping the Falcons rushing attack is something that the Saints defense needs to concentrate on, because they use that running game to set things up for the passing offense.  If you shut down Turner and company and make them one dimensional, the Falcons can and will struggle at that point.

Once a lead has been gained, the Saints need to settle in and run the football, which will allow them to control the ball and the clock—a vital key to defeating the Falcons.  If they can keep the ball out of their hands, then they have an excellent chance of winning this game.

The Saints also need to avoid making mistakes that will give the Falcons opportunities to score and either keep pace with New Orleans or widen the margin of any lead that they may get.  On the flip side, if the Falcons manage to turn the ball over, the Saints need to capitalize on it and get some points.

Prediction

This is a pretty difficult game to predict because both of these teams are evenly matched and very good.  Both teams need the win, but the Saints need it more. That might be just enough to allow them to put the clamps on Atlanta’s offense, score some points on their defense and win this game with the hopes of keeping their playoff hopes alive.

New Orleans 24 - Atlanta 20