Week 16 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Picks From the Experts

Each week, we at FFSpin.com scour the injury reports and analyze the box scores to offer up some players that might be floating around as free agents and could contribute to your fantasy football team. 

Let’s take a look at what rushers work for effective running teams and which runners are on struggling units.  The four best ground attacks are each averaging over 145 rushing yards per game.  They are the Chiefs, Raiders, Giants and Jets, and all but the Jets have reliable fantasy options in their backfield.   The worst rushing offenses can be found in Seattle,  Arizona, Detroit, Dallas and Denver.  Those teams are hobbling along at a clip of only 90 yards per contest, and only the Broncos have a guy that you can comfortable starting—when Moreno is healthy that is.

The five best teams at plugging up the run belong to Pittsburgh, Chicago, NY Jets and San Diego.  Temper your expectations for Cedric Benson (vs SD), Jonathan Stewart (vs Pitt) , Matt Forte (vs NY Jets) and LT/Shonn Greene (vs Chicago) as they have matchups with stout defensive lines in Week 16 that are surrendering less than 90 yards per game on the ground.

The worst run defenses call Carolina, Washington, Tampa, Oakland, Arizona, Indy, Denver and Buffalo home.  Considering those teams are allowing over 130 yards per game, opposing rushers should be in for a field day.   Rashad Jennings (vs WAS), Donald Brown (@ OAK) and Tashard Choice (@ ARZ) are worth considering if you have fringe starters with difficult matchups.

Many elite options have the potential to explode in favorable Week 16 matchups. Rashard Mendenhall (vs Carolina),Darren McFadden (vs. IND), Arian Foster (vs DEN) and MJD (vs WAS) are primed to carry your fantasy teams to the championship. The Patriots duo of  BJGE / Woodhead (vs Buffalo) and Felix Jones / Tashard Choice (vs Arizona) are worth considering despite the time share.

VIEWS:

Rotoworld.com is on board with NFL&columnid=64&articleid=37063" target="_blank">adding Houston’s Derrick Ward as insurance for Arian Foster (hip). The Texans face Denver’s 31st ranked run defense in week 16.

Razzball.com recommends adding Indy’s Donald Brown (if available) as he proved in Week 15 that he has the talent to excel. In Week 16, the Colts face a Raiders defense that ranks 26th against the run (133 yards/game).

ProFootballWeekly.com points out that the Jags No. 2 RB Rashad Jennings is a must have handcuff for MJD owners and could be useful in deep leagues for a Week 16 matchups vs. Washington’s 28th ranked run defense.

LestersLegends.com believes that Seattle’s Maurice Morris is worth considering despite a difficult matchup with a Miami defense that ranks seventh against the run (99 yards/game).

FANTASY FOOTBALL SPIN:

Tashard Choice:  The 25-year-old RB out of Georgia Tech averaged an impressive 5.5 yards per carry in limited action last season.  Barber has had two straight injury-plagued seasons, and Felix Jones missed Wednesday practice with a shin injury.  Seems like the same story every year with Felix Jones—show potential then get injured.  Jerry Jones made a massive mistake in passing some very good, even great running backs, for the mediocre Jones. 

Since carrying 19 times for 100 yards against the Colts in Week 15, Choice has only totaled 70 yards the past two weeks.  If Felix is forced to miss Week 16, Choice could be a great Christmas present as the lead back against an Arizona defense that ranks 30th against the run (143 yards/game).

Donald Brown: The 2009 first-round pick has yet to reach his potential, but he showed flashes in Week 15.  Brown carried 14 times for 129 yards with a touchdown, and he added a four-yard reception.

On the season, the second year RB from UCONN has 78 carries for 281 yards (less than impressive 3.6 YPC) and 20 catches for 205 yards.  With Joseph Addai and Mike Hart likely out yet again in Week 16, Brown could be worth using as a low end RB2 in a very favorable matchup against Oakland’s 26th ranked run defense.  One caveat is that Addai did practice today, and if he plays, Brown’s value drops drastically.

Derrick Ward: Arian Foster put a scare into all owners when he was limited in the second half of the Week 15 loss to the Titans with a hip injury.  Derrick Ward is the handcuff to own but don’t go crazy as head coach Gary Kubiak fully expects Foster to suit up and carry fantasy teams to the title in a dream matchup with Denver’s 31st ranked run defense.  On the season, Ward has 45 carries for 249 yards (impressive 5.5 YPC). Stash him if you have roster space but don’t expect much unless Foster takes a turn for the worse.  We expect Foster, the No. 1 fantasy football RB this year, to play.

Toby Gerhart: AP was a last-minute scratch on Monday night which had his owners looking for the nearest cliff if they didn’t own Gerhart.  Early reports are that Peterson will return in Week 16, but nothing is a lock as the Vikings are playing for draft position. We wrote a piece earlier on this where we detailed the conflicting messages of Peterson, who says he will play, and Leslie Frazier who was far less optimistic. 

Gerhart finished with 77 yards against a stout Bears run defense.  If he starts again, he will face another fairly stiff test in Week 16 against Philadelphia’s 11th ranked run.  On the season, the rookie from Stanford has 77 carries for 304 yards (3.9 YPC) and 20 catches for for 161 yards.  Peterson is looking for a fat contract, and we think he will force his way into the lineup.

Rashad Jennings: MJD is more questionable for Week 16 than first reported, making Jennings worthy of consideration.  In Week 15, Jennings amassed seven catches for 64 yards while the Jags were in catch up mode against the Colts.  The third year back from Liberty would be a top 20 option if MJD sits out, but that is unthinkable considering the Jags are fighting for their playoff lives. 

Jacksonville faces a generous Washington run defense that is allowing 134 rushing yards per contest.   Look for Jones-Drew to tough this out, but Jennings is a nice insurance policy for MJD owners and a decent roll of the dice if you have an average starting back or have rushers facing tough matchups.

Maurice Morris:  As Javhid Best continues to struggle with two turf toe injuries, Maurice Morris made the most of his opportunity in Week 15 as he rushed 15 times for 109 yards with a touchdown.  He also caught three balls for 10 yards as the Lions snapped their road-losing streak. The 30 year-old Morris lacks Best’s explosiveness but could have a great chance at 12-15 carries and 5-7 catches going forward.  Temper your expectations as Detroit has difficult matchups the final two weeks when they face the Dolphins and the Vikings.  He still has upside.

See the full report on waiver wire selections for WR and QB at Fantasy Football Spin. Remember to sign up for our free offseason newsletter and This Week in Fantasy Podcast on the FFSpin.com home page.