2011 NFL Mock Draft: Stanford's Andrew Luck No. 1, Auburn's Cam Newton to Viking
As NFL teams drop each week from the playoff hunt, disappointed fans look forward to their team's next meaningful day. That day comes in April, when the 2011 NFL Draft either furthers the disappointment or rejuvenates fan bases.
There is already plenty of speculation of how the first round will play out.The NFL Combine will provide more information, but ideas and opinions have begun forming.
Auburn quarterback Cam Newton has vaunted himself into the top-10 pick conversation with a Heisman Trophy-winning season highlighted by spectacular athleticism and versatility. But is it enough to de-throne the top-pick favorite, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck? Which cornerback will go first, LSU's Patrick Peterson or Nebraska's Prince Amukamara? Has Washington quarterback Jake Locker--once considered the top prospect--fallen completely out of the first round?
Here's a breakdown of what the first round of the 2011 NFL draft could very well look like.
32: New England Patriots, Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida
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Pouncey struggled early this season with snapping the football after moving to center. But his blocking never regressed and he is still one of the best lineman in the country.
Why the Patriots pick Pouncey: The Patriots love players with versatility and that's what Pouncey provides, having played both guard and center for full seasons at Florida. He's strong and seasoned by the Southeastern Conference.
31: Atlanta Falcons, Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
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Floyd has been prolific in his time at Notre Dame, catching 26 touchdowns in three seasons. He's terrific with possession and reliable on deep routes.
Why the Falcons pick Floyd: Wide receiver isn't a great area of concern for Atlanta, but sprucing up a solid but not outstanding passing attack with a player like Floyd, who could slide in as a dynamic No. 3 receiver, is the right move for a team with few needs.
30: Pittsburgh Steelers, DeMarcus Love, OT, Arkansas
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Keeping quarterback Ryan Mallett upright in the Southeastern Conference was Love's task this season, and he did it well. At 6'5" and 315 pounds, he's ready physically to be an offensive lineman.
Why the Steelers pick Love: Protecting the quarterback has been a sporadic problem for the Steelers this year. Although a lot of that can be attributed to the interior of the offensive line, picking up a talent like Love is still a good move.
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29: Baltimore Ravens, Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (Fla.)
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Bailey hasn't been unbelievably productive on the field, but he's been very good at the least. He's also going to test off the charts at the NFL Combine, which seems to elevate draft stock when coaches dream about what they can do with players who have Bailey's athleticism.
Why the Ravens pick Bailey: As good as the Ravens defense has been over the past decade, it is aging rapidly. It feels like Baltimore is just hanging on to its defensive prowess and Bailey could be the perfect antidote to age.
28: Philadephia Eagles, Brandon Burton, CB, Utah
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Burton is the latest on a growing list of strong cornerback prospects coming out of Utah, following Sean Smith and Bryce McCain. Burton gets all over the field for tackles and plays strong coverage.
Why the Eagles pick Burton: In the NFC East, with receivers like Miles Austin, Hakeem Nicks and Santana Moss popping up twice a year, it's never a bad idea to beef up the secondary. Burton isn't a flashy pick, but he is a dependable one.
27: New York Jets, Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
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Nevis is a beastly defensive tackle that should wow scouts at the NFL combine. He's known for his ability to disrupt running plays, but still finds his way to the quarterback.
Why the Jets pick Nevis: This is Rex Ryan's type of player: strong, quick and plays with a nasty streak. Nevis would probably find his way onto the field almost immediately with the Jets.
26: Chicago Bears, Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
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Sherrod has shot up draft boards this season while helping Mississippi State produce the nation's 16th best rushing offense.
Why the Bears pick Sherrod: The Bears have a promising rookie at right tackle in J'Marcus Webb. But left tackle Frank Omiyale isn't a guarantee to lock down the position. Bringing Sherrod could provide some stability.
25: New Orleans Saints, Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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Kerrigan tallied 13 sacks this season while becoming possibly the Big Ten's best pass-rushing defensive end. With 32 sacks in the past three seasons for Purdue, it's undeniable that Kerrigan's penchant for getting to the quarterback is a habit, not a flash in the pan.
Why the Saints pick Kerrigan: With only 4.5 sacks so far this season out of starting defensive ends Will Smith (3.5) and Alex Brown (1.0), Kerrigan is a smart pick here. An instant pass rush is what the Saints need and what Kerrigan can provide.
24: New York Giants, Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Solder has been seen all season as one of the top offensive tackles in college football. Likewise, NFL scouts have seen his talents transitioning nicely to the pro game. He was a bright spot for a disappointing Buffaloes team.
Why the Giants pick Solder: Kareem McKenzie is in his 10th season and David Diehl is in his 8th season. Neither tackle is spectacular and both are aging. The Giants don't need to replace either, but it's not too early to start thinking about it.
23: Kanas City Chiefs, Cameron Heyward, DT, Ohio State
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Heyward has the ability to play inside or move to defensive end. His versatility is what makes him a sought-after prospect. Heyward could have gone higher a year ago, but opted to return to Ohio State. He anchored one of the best defenses in the country for the Buckeyes.
Why the Chiefs pick Heyward: Versatility is huge here. With defenses relying so much on rotating players, Heyward gives a defensive coordinator options. He has the strength to go head on with NFL offensive lineman.
22: San Diego Chargers, Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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Castonzo has flown under the radar at middling Boston College, but not for NFL scouts. He's a top-flight tackle that NFL executives expect to move fluidly into the pro game.
Why the Chargers pick Castonzo: Jeromey Clary probably isn't the long-term answer at right tackle. Castonzo just might be. Even if he's not, there isn't another glaring need for the Chargers that warrants picking anyone else.
21: Indianapolis Colts, Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
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Blackmon is electrifying, simply put. His size is impressive, his hands sure and his gait fast. Blackmon is especially talented at gaining yardage after the catch.
Why the Colts pick Blackmon: This really comes down to what happens with wide receiver Austin Collie. Can the Colts rely on a player that seems inordinately susceptible to concussions? Is it safe for Collie to continue his young yet fruitful career? Either way, watching Peyton Manning try to run the offense with scrubs as his primary targets shows that having the right receivers is crucial to the Colts. Enter Blackmon.
20: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cameron Jordan, DT/DE, California
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What position Jordan will end up playing in the NFL probably depends on what system the team that drafts him runs. In a 3-4 defense, he'll likely move out to defensive end. In a 4-4, he'll stay at defensive tackle. Either way, he's a solid pick here.
Why the Buccaneers pick Jordan: Things are coming together for Tampa Bay offensively. Creating depth on defense--especially on the defensive line--is the next step in head coach Raheem Morris' rebuilding project which is breaking through already this season.
19: Green Bay Packers, Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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Clayborn has brute strength with a pass rush ability. His numbers are down in 2010, but mainly because attention paid to him is up.
Why the Packers pick Clayborn: In a deep class of defensive ends, Clayborn represents terrific value at the 19th pick. He adds another pass rushing threat with linebacker Clay Matthews while not sacrificing anything in run defense.
18: Jacksonville Jaguars, Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA
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Don't sleep on Moore, despite his measly one interception this season. In 2009, he snatched 10, causing offenses to re-think throwing the ball his direction. Instead of making plays on the ball, Moore upped his tackling with 32 tackles.
Why the Jaguars pick Moore: Jacksonville is near the bottom of the league in pass defense. Adding a ball-hawking safety could bandage the wound.
17: Miami Dolphins, Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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Ingram is the type of grinding running back that fits into the tandem back system used by so many NFL teams. Even after regressing from a Heisman Trophy-winning season in 2009, Ingram's NFL potential was never in question.
Why the Dolphins pick Ingram: Ricky Williams isn't getting any younger. Ingram might just be the injection of fresh legs the Miami running game needs.
16: New England (from Oakland), Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
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Quinn had 11 sacks last year, setting up what was expected to be a spectacular 2011 campaign, ending in a high draft pick. But after accepting benefits from an agent, Quinn became ineligible. Still, any NFL scout that has forgotten Quinn's abilities will be reminded of them at the NFL Combine.
Why the Patriots pick Quinn: If any character concerns linger for NFL teams, coach Bill Belichick won't be hesitant to pick Quinn. The rich get richer when the Patriots pick this high.
15: Tennessee Titans, Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (Fla.)
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Harris' speed is somewhat in question, having been clocked anywhere from a 4.45 to a 4.66 in the 40-yard dash since leaving high school. His on-field production, however, cannot be questioned.
Why the Titans pick Harris: Owner Bud Adams is expected to side with quarterback Vince Young when it comes to Young vs. head coach Jeff Fisher, no matter what everyone else thinks about Young or Fisher. So, Jake Locker won't be picked here. Therefore, the Titans look to beef up their secondary with Harris.
14: Seattle Seahawks, Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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The 2010 Outland Trophy winner as the nation's best offensive lineman is the anchor of Wisconsin's dominant rushing attack. Meanwhile, the Badgers only allowed 12 sacks this season with Carimi taking on the opponent's top pass-rusher most weeks.
Why the Seahawks pick Carimi: Landing an offensive tackle of Carimi's talent this late has tremendous value. The Seahawks are the first team with a significant need at offensive tackle and they'll be more than happy to scoop up Carimi.
13: St. Louis Rams, Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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Julio Jones is the perfect mix of size and speed. He's sure-handed for possession situations and strong and fast enough to turn out game-breaking plays.
Why the Rams pick Jones: The Rams' defense is a growing force not in need of a first-round pick. Plus, quarterback Sam Bradford has to be begging coach Steve Spagnoulo to draft Jones. The fact that Bradford has been able to do what he has with Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson at wide receiver is remarkable. They're both nice players, but both pale in comparison to the potential of Jones.
12: Cleveland Browns, Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
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Miller is as complete an outside linebacker as imaginable. With 27 sacks in the past two seasons, he prepared to provide immediate firepower to any defense. Miller showed great range as well, making 59 tackles this season for the resurgent Aggies.
Why the Browns pick Miller: Sure, Cleveland could use help at offensive guard or wide receiver. But Cleveland needs instant impact and Miller is the player on the board at this point that provides that the most. The Browns' pass rush could use some spicing up. Cleveland, meet Von Miller.
11: Houston Texans, Janoris Jenkins, CB, Florida
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Jenkins isn't at the same level as Nebraska's Prince Amukamara and LSU's Patrick Peterson, but he still has the makings of a nice pro, worthy of a high first-round pick. Speed is a major attribute of Jenkins'.
Why the Texans pick Jenkins: The worst pass defense in the NFL will be looking desperately to repair the damage. Jenkins has great cover abilities and a knack for interceptions, with eight in his career at Florida. Houston needs to do something to keep teams from picking them apart at will through the air.
10: Dallas Cowboys, J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
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Watt is an explosive playmaker, racking up 21 tackles for loss and 8 sacks for Wisconsin this season. He has shot up draft boards by showing a well-rounded game and a terrific work rate.
Why the Cowboys pick Watt: This could be one of the most talented sub-.500 teams in NFL history, especially from a skill-position standpoint. Adding a pass-rushing threat like Watt to the defensive line to help sack-master linebacker DeMarcus Ware could be a scary prospect for the rest of the NFC East.
9: Minnesota Vikings, Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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Newton's prowess in the college game is unquestionable. Just one season after it was widely speculated that we wouldn't see a player produce at the same level as Florida's Tim Tebow for a very long time, Newton came along and did just that. Newton has a huge arm and is mobile, but he's been free to be a dual-threat in college, which likely won't be the case in the NFL. The transition will be closely watched.
Why the Vikings pick Newton: Despite Jake Locker not producing as expected at Washington, his draft stock hasn't been hurt enough to suggest there won't be a decision to be made by teams looking for a quarterback at this point. Brett Favre has one foot out the door (with the other dragging roughly behind, of course) and a 27-year-old, underwhelming Tarvaris Jackson seems less and less like the quarterback of the future. Jackson would be better seen as a stopgap while Newton learns the pro game for a season.
8: Washington Redskins, Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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The only reason Bowers goes this low is because team needs don't demand a defensive end higher. He's one of the top-rated prospects across the board. He's surpassed Iowa's Adrian Clayborn as the top DE prospect in the country and held off Wisconsin's J.J. Watt to hold the top spot.
Why the Redskins pick Bowers: Unless someone is finally able to climb inside the head of owner Dan Snyder, this pick is anyone's guess at this point. After falling in love with coach Mike Shanahan and throwing millions of dollars at him, Snyder did the same with quarterback Donovan McNabb. Now coach and quarterback are at odds and the question is not only which will hit the bricks first, but will both? If McNabb is sent packing, will Snyder pressure management into picking a quarterback? My gut feeling is that McNabb sticks around, opening the pick to Bowers.
7: San Francisco 49ers, Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
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Is there another quarterback in the country that looks more like a pro? He's tall, athletic and has the arm for every throw imaginable. Consider the fact that Mallett has been under the tutelage of quarterback guru Bobby Petrino for two seasons at Arkansas, and there may be no quarterback better prepared to help a professional franchise immediately.
Why the 49ers pick Mallett: 49ers management could very well be cutting ties with coach Mike Singletary at season's end. Whoever is in charge come draft time, it's likely they'll cut ties with any hopes that QB Alex Smith, drafted with the No. 1 overall pick in 2005, is the answer. With a receiving core boasting Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, more production in the passing game has to be expected. Mallett could be the man to provide it.
6: Detroit Lions, Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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Separating Amukamara from LSU's Patrick Peterson is nearly impossible. With Peterson likely off the board at this point, Amukamara is a very nice consolation prize for whoever is still shopping for a corner.
Why the Lions pick Amukamara: They went through the Nebraska pipeline last season, picking DT Ndamukong Suh second overall and its paying off in big ways. Supplementing a strong defensive line by building the secondary is the direction Detroit should head. Scouts expect Amukamara to be able to take away one side of the field.
5: Buffalo Bills, Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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Dareus burst onto the national scene with a dominant performance in the 2011 BCS National Championship Game, returning an interception for a touchdown. This would not be a production-based pick, as Dareus hasn't posted jaw-dropping stats. But he is a jaw-dropping specimen with plenty of raw ability.
Why the Bills pick Dareus: The Bills need a little bit of help in a lot of places. They currently have one of the NFL's worst rush defenses and the best place to start fixing that problem is at defensive tackle. Dareus isn't in the mold of Alabama predecessor Terrence Cody, however. He's more than a run stuffer, notching 10 sacks in two seasons with the Crimson Tide.
4: Arizona Cardinals, Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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Aside from quarterback, defensive tackle may be the hardest position to project from college to the pros. Glenn Dorsey went to the Kansas City Chiefs fifth overall in 2008 as a "guarantee" out of LSU and has been nothing more than serviceable in his first two seasons. Conversely, Ndamukong Suh was selected second overall out of Nebraska last season by the Detroit Lions and is in the running for Rookie of the Year and considered a top defensive tackle league-wide.
Why the Cardinals pick Fairley: A powerful force, Fairley has been the saving grace for a much-maligned Auburn defense. What quarterback Cam Newton is to the offense, Fairley is every bit as much to the defense: things would look a lot different if he wasn't there. Although Fairley can resort to pure power at will in college, it's his athleticism that makes him a legitimate high first-round pick.
3: Cincinnati Bengals, A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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A.J. Green knows his way around highlight reel catches. His return from a four-game suspension this season is believed to be directly tied to Georgia's turnaround from a 1-3 start to finish bowl eligible. If a wide receiver can provide such a substantial impact, he's bound to be a high draft pick.
Why Cincinnati picks Green: Rumors are swirling that the Bengals have no intention of re-signing Terrell Owens. Chad Ochocinco surely has a few more seasons in his legs, but his days as a number one receiver are probably limited. Green could become that player in a season or two, with Ochocinco and Jordan Shipley as compliments.
2: Denver Broncos, Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
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Peterson is a shutdown corner that adds explosiveness in the return game. LSU products usually show up big at the Combine, so Peterson should cement himself in this position there.
Why the Broncos pick Peterson: Whatever coach steps in as Josh McDaniels' full-time successor will drool over the possibility of lining up Peterson opposite All-Pro CB Champ Bailey. The veteran could mentor the rookie, creating a scary coverage tandem in a pass-happy league. With Bailey and safety Brian Dawkins aging, there is no time like the present for Denver to begin addressing the secondary.
1: Carolina Panthers, Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
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There's not a lot of surprise here. The only way this doesn't happen is if Luck decides to forego tens of millions of guaranteed dollars to return to Stanford. That's not likely.
Why the Panthers pick Luck: Luck has an NFL arm, the prestigious university pedigree and supreme mobility. He's right at the top of every team's wish list who's looking for a franchise quarterback. Carolina grabbed quarterback Jimmy Clausen of Notre Dame in last year's draft with their second round pick, 48th overall. Clausen has struggled in his few starts this season, but Carolina nabbed him for the future. Maybe the Panthers trade away the top pick and fill another need with lower picks.
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