NFL Week 16 Picks: First-Look Predictions for Every Game
NFL Week 16 settles a lot more playoff questions, and it sets the stage for the final week of the regular season.
It's hard to believe the season is almost over. It seems like just yesterday we were talking about the Titans' chances of winning the Super Bowl and if Kevin Kolb was going to keep being the starter for the Philadelphia Eagles.
This week features two prime-time games that just aren't going to be very interesting, and a Monday night game that's going to be an all-out war.
Last week was not my best week, but it wasn't bad as I thought it was going to be. The Chiefs got an effective Matt Cassel and the Jets upset the Steelers. Meanwhile, the Browns offense has become so predictable that it doesn't matter who is quarterback, you can call the plays with your back turned and the volume muted.
Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 144-80
Carolina Panthers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday Night Football)
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The Steelers almost came back and won the game against the New York Jets in the fourth quarter on Sunday.
Almost.
The fact is the Steelers defense doesn't look the same without Troy Polamalu, and for some reason, with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, this offense has a hard time putting points on the board. It's baffling, and the Steelers need to fix this before the playoffs.
By the way, the Carolina Panthers are coming to town Thursday night. Expect Jimmy Clausen to be impaled on a spike and then hung from the roof of Heinz Field as a warning to other quarterbacks.
Steelers 20, Panthers 6
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals
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The Cowboys are starting to look like the team to beat in 2011 as long as Jason Garrett stays the head coach. The turnaround this team has shown since he took over is almost frightening.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals now look like they're two or three years of rebuilding away from being a 6-10 team. They need help at every position, and there's no doubt they won't go into next season with Derek Anderson on the roster, or even John Skelton as the starter.
To be fair to Skelton, I think he has a shot of being a good quarterback down the road, but he won't be the No. 1 quarterback entering training camp next year.
This should be an easy game for the new Cowboys, who won't have to worry about Arizona's defense because it no longer exists in any kind of professional form.
Cowboys 33, Cardinals 10
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears
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This is a difficult game to predict because both teams have records greater than their on-field play would suggest.
Mark Sanchez still is developing and has benefited from a lot of dropped interceptions, while the Bears offense really was kind of a mess for the first half of the season.
The Jets were one special teams touchdown away from losing the Steelers game, and the Bears got destroyed by the last AFC East team they faced.
This game is in Chicago and I think these teams match up well, except for the fact the Bears defense could end up eating Sanchez alive.
Going with the home team.
Bears 28, Jets 20
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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills put 30 points on the board against the Patriots in Week 3, and the Patriots barely escaped with a victory that week.
That will not happen again as Bill Belichick is the kind of coach who doesn't get caught by surprise by the same team twice in one season. You can bet the Patriots will be ready for Ryan Fitzpatrick this time around and that the Bills won't be sneaking another victory like they did last week against the Dolphins.
Patriots 42, Bills 13
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
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This game frightens me because the Chiefs should win, but the Titans absolutely can win this game.
Matt Cassel is back, and after kind of a slow start, he's been getting more and more dominant every week. To clarify, he wasn't bad at the beginning of the year, but the Chiefs offense definitely was thriving on the running game while Cassel just seemed to be a cog in the machine.
Now Cassel seems to have carved out a niche for himself and the Chiefs offense is turning into something very scary.
The Titans offense looks potent again with the return of Kenny Britt, Chris Johnson being effective again and Kerry Collins returned to health.
Injuries just ruined the Titans season, and that makes them dangerous here because even though they're out of the playoffs, this team hasn't packed it in and are looking to play the role of spoiler.
With a playoff spot on the line, though, I'm going with the Chiefs, who I think are going to want it just a little more.
Chiefs 30, Titans 20
Washington Redskins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Rex Grossman and Mike Shanahan surprised the Cowboys last week, coming up just short.
Jack Del Rio and the Jaguars know what's coming now, so I just don't see Grossman throwing four touchdowns again this week.
The Jaguars lost a tough game to the Colts last week and can't lose any more games, especially if the Colts win again.
So I'm going to have to go with the Jaguars, whose third-ranked rushing offense, spearheaded by Maurice Jones-Drew, will just rumble all over the Redskins' 27th-ranked rush defense.
Jaguars 24, Redskins 17
Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins
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Another tough game to call because the Lions are dangerous and the Dolphins are at home.
The Dolphins have only won one game at home this year, against the Tennessee Titans.
The Lions beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, and they appear to play well in Florida.
I'm just going to go with the Lions starting a road winning streak and continuing the Dolphins' home woes.
Lions 20, Dolphins 14
San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams
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Ugghhh!!
This is a battle between two NFC West teams. The division that winning forgot.
Go with the home team; it's as good of a game breakdown as any.
Rams 14, 49ers 13
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
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The Browns once again have fallen into a hole they can't dig themselves out of. Colt McCoy definitely is the quarterback of the future for Cleveland, but right now he has no receivers, no right side of the offensive line and an offensive coordinator who's too scared to change the gameplan once it blows up in his face.
Eric Mangini should be taking more control, but isn't, and that's a mystery that could cost him his job in a few weeks.
Meanwhile, Rob Ryan's defensive packages have been getting increasingly worse, and teams are just beating the Browns up and running all over them.
Then there's the Ravens, who have lost a few really big games this year that have put them behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the division. But the Ravens beat the Saints last week, and they know losing to the Browns this week could really kill their Wild Card hopes.
The Ravens are too tough at this point and the Browns look like they've already packed it in for the year. It's a mystery which Browns team will take the field, but it's no mystery the Ravens are going to show up to play.
Ravens 38, Browns 13
Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos
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The Texans offense definitely is potent, but the team itself is falling apart bit by bit. Plus, running back Arian Foster was injured in the fourth quarter and his effectiveness this coming week could be in question.
The Broncos are going with Tim Tebow again at quarterback, but the issue remains they still don't have a defense. Then again, neither do the Texans.
So this could be the battle of the quarterbacks, and we can find out what another week of first-team snaps does for Tebow.
While I like the Broncos' chances, I think the Texans have the edge as their offense is just going to be a little better—but there's going to be a lot of scoring on both sides.
Texans 45, Broncos 33
Indianapolis Colts vs. Oakland Raiders
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The only question for this game is how Peyton Manning will do against the Raiders' fifth-ranked pass defense.
I do believe the Colts defense can neutralize Jason Campbell, but their ability to stop Darren McFadden is a good point of debate, especially considering the Colts rush defense is ranked 28th in the league.
However, as with some of the other games this week, playoff spots are on the line, and the Raiders still are mathematically in it. That being said, the Raiders can be eliminated from the playoffs even if they win their last two games just by some other teams winning.
The Colts control their own destiny and are looking to keep it that way. They had their three-game slide in November, and now they are looking to keep the good vibes going as the team heads into the last two weeks of the season.
The Colts come out ready, give up some big runs, but Manning is back to his old form and wins the game.
Colts 28, Raiders 21
San Diego Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
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The Chargers need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The Bengals have nothing to play for, and they're not playing the Cleveland Browns this week. The Cedric Benson running attack is just not going to work against the Chargers and the Bengals' young wide receivers aren't ready to be stars yet.
Chargers 40, Bengals 13
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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I broke my rule against picking NFC West teams against non-NFC West teams last week with the Chiefs game. I won't make that mistake again.
Buccaneers 31, Seahawks 14
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
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Whether Matt Flynn or Aaron Rodgers leads the offense, last week proved Flynn is a quick study. So don't expect the same two-minute drill problems as we saw Sunday night versus the Patriots.
The Giants, on the other hand, are coming off one of the worst meltdowns in the last 10 years. Even with Eli Manning and the Giants running game, that kind of breakdown is hard to shake off in just one week.
The Giants can lose this game and still make the playoffs; the Packers can, but don't count on it.
The Giants defense is elite against the pass, ranked second in the league, and ranked 10th against the rush. But the Packers don't have much of a running game, so that could be a moot point.
Going to take the Packers in an upset.
Packers 24, Giants 23
Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles
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The Eagles have too many weapons, and Jared Allen isn't enough to stop the Eagles offense.
The Eagles want to get that first-round bye and they want to keep the Giants from sneaking back in and taking the NFC East.
The Vikings will want to play spoiler here, but the team really now is in evaluation mode, and that's about all you can say at this point.
Eagles 38, Vikings 17
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
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This game is going to be a war. The Falcons at this point don't have much to lose with this game, but they're not going to roll over since it's a divisional game.
The Saints want this victory so bad; they are going to play with an intensity not seen since last year's postseason.
But it's difficult for me to pick against Matt Ryan at home.
Chris Ivory's status is unknown at this time, but until they say he's in the game, you have to assume he's out.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have all their receivers and Michael Turner.
Falcons 21, Saints 17
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