Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: Week 16 Preview and Keys To the Game
The Buffalo Bills are set to play their final home game of the season Sunday when they host the AFC East leading New England Patriots at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
This game figures to be a true test of how far the Bills have progressed under their new coach Chan Gailey. While the victory this past Sunday over the Miami Dolphins was the Bills first win of the year against a team with a winning record, how will they stack up against a team tied for the best record in the NFL at 12-2. The Patriots have won six straight games, some of them in very impressive fashion.
During this win streak, the Patriots have beat five playoff worthy teams in Pittsburgh, New York Jets, Green Bay, Chicago and Indianapolis. Is there any better measuring stick for the Bills than against the top team in the NFL? Okay, Atlanta Falcons fans may want to contest that statement, but clearly the Patriots belong among the NFL elite teams.
Oh, and yes you can expect to see Tom Brady sliding around on Sunday. He is not Ryan Fitzpatrick in terms of toughness, but then again, Ryan Fitzpatrick is not Tom Brady either.
What Do The Patriots Have Left To Play For?
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Last year around this time, the Bills hosted the Indianapolis Colts in the season finale. The Colts had nothing to play for, Peyton Manning made a token appearance and the Bills went on to win the game.
The Patriots, while holding the best record in the NFL at 12-2 with Atlanta, have clinched a playoff spot, but do not have home field advantage yet. They do have a two game lead for that honor over Pittsburgh, Baltimore and the New York Jets, so they will probably play Tom Brady for most if not all of the game.
So, expect the Bills secondary to get tested as Tom Brady will be bringing his wide array of weapons with him on Sunday. The Patriots' offense featured their dynamic duo of rookie tight ends, ex-Western New York's own Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, wide receivers Deion Branch and Wes Welker and running backs Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis and all-around threat Danny Woodhead. The Patriots' offense is so deep that they don't even dress veteran running back Fred Taylor lately.
In addition to all of that firepower, the Bills can't relax on special teams as kick returner Brandon Tate has two kick returns for touchdowns this year. Then there is the wildcard, guard Dan Connolly, who broke a record 71-yard kick return (record for an offensive lineman), last Sunday against the Green Bay Packers.
Which New England Team Will Show Up?
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In a recent two game stretch, the Patriots dismantled the Jets and the Bears by the combined score of 81-10.
Then you look at the egg that they laid losing to Cleveland 34-14, a team that the Bills beat. So, anything is possible. Green Bay held the lead for most of the game last Sunday, until New England stormed back in the second half to win the game late. Bills fans know we have been there and done that.
Back in Week 3, the Bills lost at New England 38-30. That was Ryan Fitzpatrick's first start of the year, and marked the first game that the Bills offense had a pulse. The Bills leading receiver and rusher for that game, Roscoe Parrish and Marshawn Lynch, are no longer active or with the team.
The Patriots threw two touchdown passes in that game to Bills-nemisis Randy Moss, but he thankfully is no longer playing for New England. The Bills are a better team now than they were in Week 3, but no doubt that New England has improved as well.
How Special A Year Is Tom Brady Having?
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Sitting atop the NFL's QB passer rating list is Tom Brady with a lofty rating of 109.9. Consider that Brady has thrown 31 touchdown passes to only four interceptions for the season. That is an unbelievable ratio.
Brady has been on a roll. He has gone nine straight games without throwing an interception. His current streak of of 292 straight passes without an interception is third best in NFL history. In fact, if he throws his first 17 passes against the Bills without an interception, he will have set the record for longest such streak in the history of the league, breaking Bernie Kosar's record of 308.
The Bills' defense has been creating turnovers recently when defensive coordinator George Edwards started applying some blitz packages to the Bills staid defense from earlier this season. In the past five games the Bills have amassed 13 turnovers, which is a stark change from earlier this season, when they were starved for creating turnovers. This will be an interesting aspect of the game.
Brady may very well wind up being the MVP of the league. He has had that kind of a year. He is averaging 254 passing yards per game, and averages 7.93 yards per attempt. He completes two-thirds of his passes. He has been sacked 24 times, so he is capable of being pressured. Turn loose the Bills rookie Arthur Moats and see if he can get to Brady on Sunday. The Bills will need a big game from Arthur.
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Week 3 Revisited
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Back in Week 3, the Bills went to New England and put up a fight but lost 38-30. That game marked the first start for Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the benching of Trent Edwards. It also marked the first game that the Bills offense showed it had a pulse. The game also was C.J. Spiller's coming out party, as he scored two touchdowns in the game. Sadly, he has not scored in any other games since then.
Both teams have shown improvement. At least the Patriots knew their system under Bill Belichick, while the Bills were still getting used to brand new schemes on both offense and defense under Chan Gailey and George Edwards.
Since Week 3, the Bills have lost Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish, Andra Davis, Dwan Edwards, Keith Ellison, Shawn Nelson, Reggie Torbor, Kraig Urbik, Cornell Green and even tried to revive the career of Shawne Merriman, which lasted all of fifteen minutes in one practice.
The Bills have more confidence and belief in themselves to be able to compete and win games. They will need all of their confidence to stay with New England.
Inside The Numbers
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The Patriots' offense is ranked No. 9 in the NFL with 355 yards per game. The pass offense is No. 10 with 242 yards per game while the rush offense is No. 15 with 112 yards per game.
The Bills' offense is ranked No. 24 with 316 yards per game. The pass offense is No. 24 with 199 yards per game while the Bills rushing offense is No. 17 with 111 yards per game.
New England's offense has generated 291 first downs, good for No. 8 in the league. The Bills have come up with 50 fewer first downs, so they stand at No. 24 with 241 for the season. New England converts 46 percent of their third down conversions, good for third in the NFL. The Bills convert 38 percent of their third-down chances, which is 16th in the league.
The Patriots leads the AFC with a plus turnover margin of 20. They have only turned the ball over nine times for the entire season. They lead the AFC with 21 interceptions and are second in the NFL in that category.
The Bills have a plus minus turnover ratio of minus five. The defense has created 21 turnovers, but the offense has given the ball away 26 times.
Two Potential 1,000 Yard Rushers Need Big Games
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Fred Jackson of the Bills and Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis of the Patriots are neck and neck in the NFL rushing leader standings. Fred Jackson has gained 811 yards on the year, so needs to come up with 189 more in the final two games to repeat his 1,000 yard season from last year. Jackson is averaging over 4.0 yards per carry and is ranked No. 20 in the NFL.
Green-Ellis is ranked right ahead at No. 19, and with his total of 824 yards, needs 176 in the last two games to see 1,000 for the year. One note to pass along, in 190 carries this year, he has zero fumbles. New England really does a good job of taking care of the ball, but that is what you expect from great teams.
C. J. Spiller has been seeing more touches out of the Bills backfield lately, just like Danny Woodhead does for the Patriots.
You have to imagine that both lines would like to see their leading rusher top the century mark, as that is a source of pride for any offensive line.
Will The Weather Allow For Lots Of Passing?
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As much as Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick like to throw the ball, it will be interesting to see what the weather conditions are like this Sunday in Orchard Park. Buffalo has been blanketed with lots of snow in the past few weeks, so we will be paying attention to the weather channel as we get closer to the game to see what is expected.
The receiving corps of both teams have been putting up some solid results this year. The Patriots boast their rookie tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who are the first pair of rookie tight ends in NFL history to have at least five touchdown catches. The tight end position has been a problematic area for the Bills to defend all season. Couple that with the Bills are last in the NFL at completions to the tight end position, so hopefully the Bills' brain-trust can take notes by studying what New England does.
Stevie Johnson and the three rookie kids of the Bills are hoping to have a repeat of the game they had last Sunday against the Miami Dolphins when the quartet of Stevie Johnson, David Nelson, Donald Jones and Naaman Roosevelt came up with 194 yards in receptions. The Patriots ball-hawking secondary will not have a ton of footage on Nelson, Jones and Roosevelt to look at, but they have seen plenty of footage on Steve Johnson, who is tied for fourth in the NFL with 10 touchdown catches on the year.
Johnson needs just 57 yards on Sunday to reach the 1,000 yard mark for the season. With two full games to go, you would like to get the mark this Sunday, before he closes out the year going to Revis Island.
The Buffalo Bills Have Some Streaks Of Their Own
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The Buffalo Bills have some streaks going of their own that they would like to see extended.
Rookie wide receiver David Nelson has now caught a touchdown pass in three straight games. If he happens to get a fourth, that likely means that Ryan Fitzpatrick has extended his streak of throwing a touchdown pass in his 16th straight game. The Bills' history mark is 18 by Jim Kelly, so Fitzpatrick would have to click against the Patriots, then the Jets next week and the opening week of 2011 to tie the mark.
Rookie linebacker, Arthur Moats, has a solo sack in two straight games and would like to make it three straight. Bills fans are really enjoying watching Moats cause some havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Has there been any other Bills play from this season that has been replayed any more than the hit Moats put on Brett Favre? I don't think so.
Defensive Players Of Note In This Contest
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This game features three players ranked in the top 10 in tackles in the NFL. The leader is Patriots' linebacker Jerod Mayo, who leads by far with 164 tackles on the year. Bills' linebacker Paul Posluszny is at No. 4 with 126 tackles, while safety Donte Whitner is right behind him at No. 5 with 124.
Whitner recently went public with his sentiments that he was hurt and offended by the recent offer that the Bills presented him with. He expected to see or hear more from the Bills, and since he is a free agent at the conclusion of the season, this could mark his final home game as a member of the Bills.
Other players of note are the Patriots rookie cornerback Devin McCourty, who is ranked second in the NFL with six interceptions on the year. McCourty was selected late in the first round by the Patriots, and his high interception total should be seen for what it is. He has some talent and he was probably picked on a lot by other teams since he was a rookie and had to prove that he had the stuff to play effectively.
This game also features two top defensive nose tackles as Vince Wolfolk of the Patriots and the Bills Kyle Williams will do their best to wreck havoc. Williams is having a Pro-Bowl season, and there is some that believe that Williams will actually garner some votes for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. His season has been that good.
Bills fan in attendance will also get to see more of rookies Alex Carrington and Torell Troup, as they continue to gain valuable experience.
How Do These Defenses Stack Up?
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To be sure, both defenses have the ability to give up some points, as was evidenced by the combined 68 points scored in Week 3. The Bills actually have the higher ranked defense (No. 23) in the NFL, while the Patriots sit at No. 28. The Bills give up 360 yards a game, while the Patriots are close behind at 374 yards a game allowed.
The Bills give up an average of 25 points per game, while the Patriots give up 21 points a game. The Bills pass defense is ranked No. 7 at 202 yards per game, while the rush defense is still last in the league, with 158 yards allowed per game. The rushing defense is starting to come on, as was evidenced last Sunday versus the Dolphins.
The Patriots are the 30th ranked pass defense in the league, allowing 263 yards a game through the air. The young Bills' receivers should find some holes in the secondary to exploit. The rush defense is better, as they are ranked 15th, allowing 111 yards per game.
Which defense will have the better day at creating turnovers? That could very well determine the final outcome. The Bills will need to find a way to get to Tom Brady, because if they don't, he will pick them apart like he normally does.
Final Thoughts
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The final two games of the year for the Bills. Last home game on Sunday and then the year is done after going to New York to face the Jets. The Bills have made tremendous strides over the past six weeks. The team is not going to feel bad about their progress, regardless of the outcome of the Patriots game.
This will mark the final game for some of the Bills players as it would be foolhardy to think that everyone will be back next year. There are still some holes that need to be filled either via the draft or by free agency. The game will give Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix another chance to evaluate the team and see how far they are being a top team, albeit a team that is missing quite a few starters.
First home game for active receiver Naaman Roosevelt. Expect that he will have quite a few ticket requests to fill. I expect to see the Bills' linemen going out of their way to get as many yards as they can for Fred Jackson. The season finale against the Jets could be really tough sledding for Fred.
The team has brought some true excitement and happiness to Bills' fans over the past two months and have restored the faith and belief in the team again. A strong showing against New England would just be one more step towards making all the progress that much more meaningful. Happy Holidays to all Bills' fans wherever you around the country or world. Best wishes and Happy New Year !!
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