NFL SpreadSHREDDER, Week 15: Atlanta Falcons Fail? Upset Looms in Seattle

SpreadSHREDDER Week 14 Record ATS: 2-1

Overall Record ATS: 19-19-1

Overall Record vs. Wagering Total: 2-2


The SpreadSHREDDER got back on track with yet another winning week, and with a huge upset looming, we've got just the pick to surge back into the black where we belong.

SEATTLE (+7) OVER ATLANTA {Sportsbook.com}


One of the cuter statistics that has been haplessly articulated this season is that the Falcons are undefeated outside of the state of Pennsylvania.

Ugh.

The remedy for such a cheesy stat should come in Week 15, when the Falcons must travel across two time zones to play their fourth road game in five weeks against the Seattle Seahawks. 

Believe it or not, Atlanta's blowout victory over Carolina coinciding with a blowout Seattle loss at San Francisco places value on the Seahawks as an underdog.

The Seahawks are still in the thick of a not-so-hotly contested playoff race out in the NFC West and are in need of a win to keep pace in the division.

It's also important to remember that the Atlanta Falcons will be looking ahead to their biggest game of the season next week as they will be hosting the New Orleans Saints in a game that will almost undoubtedly decide the winner of the NFC South regardless of what happens this week.

Atlanta will be on that plane, mentally, by halftime. SEATTLE, 24-21

DALLAS (-6) OVER WASHINGTON {Sportsbook.com} 

The Redskins are on the precipice of implosion under a first year head coach (even if it is Mike Shanahan).  The Skins' mess of an offense goes perfectly with an awful defense that ranks in the bottom five of the NFL both against the pass and the run.

The Cowboys have been playing hard under interim head coach Jason Garrett, who is still coaching for a job, and their "play for pride" campaign of 2010 should be intensified with a home game against their biggest rival.

Following disheartening, emotional, one point loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, it is highly probable that the Skins will come out flat emotionally in this one.

Dallas will be more than capable of taking advantage of a poor Redskins run defense that ranks 28th in the league, with running backs Tashard Choice and Felix Jones.  Jon Kitna, who has been playing well since filling in for Tony Romo with a 6-3 touchdown to interception ratio, should have no problem moving the ball against the 29th ranked pass defense in the NFL. DALLAS, 33-14

TAMPA BAY (-5.5) OVER DETROIT {Sportsbook.com}


Detroit is coming off of an emotional win over the Packers, and this is a team that is not accustomed to sustaining success as they've gone 0-2 (1-1 ATS) coming off wins this season.

The Lions are coming off a string of emotional games dating back to their Thanksgiving tilt against the Patriots, followed by a pair of close, divisional games.

Now, the Lions must travel on the road, where they never win and play a Tampa Bay Buccaneer team that has playoff incentive.

Even if quarterback Shaun Hill does return to the starting lineup, he will have a tough time moving the ball through the air against a Top 10 passing defense.  Detroit's rush defense has improved over the past month, however, their secondary is still very vulnerable and must contend with rookie matchup nightmares in Arelius Benn and Mike Williams.

Tampa Bay wins a game that they have to have against a depleted Lions team plagued by injuries.   TAMPA BAY, 20-3

JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS, OVER 48.5 {Sportsbook.com}

This will be a divisional showdown game and a must-win spot for both teams.  The Jaguars' top flight running game, lead by Maurice Jones-Drew and a surging Rashad Jennings, will look to run all over Indianapolis' porous run defense.  Meanwhile, Peyton Manning and company will counter through the air as Manning has passed for over 35 attempts in each of his last four games.

These are two teams who are very familiar with each other, and each team's offensive strength spells doom for the opposing team's defensive weakness.

The Jags and Colts went over in their last contest earlier this year on a slower, grass turf, and in a playoff atmosphere, they should replicate that performance on the fast turf in Indianapolis.  INDIANAPOLIS, 30-27

Follow Big Nasty on twitter at twitter.com/ThisIsNasty.