Week 15 Start'Em Sit'Em: Expert Advice For The Not-So-Obvious Roster Decisions
FFArmory.com breaks down all of the not-so-obvious starts by position with an insane attention to statistics and detail.
QB - Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Kyle Orton, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Jon Kitna
RB - LeGarrette Blount, Cedric Benson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams, Tim Hightower, Ryan Torain
WR - Santonio Holmes, Steve Johnson, Johnny Knox, Sidney Rice, Santana Moss, Pierre Garcon, Kenny Britt
TE - Kevin Boss, Kellen Winslow
Which are starts? Which are sits? Keep clicking!
Start Eli Manning Home Vs. Eagles: 1pm Sunday
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The Eagles boast the 7th most porous pass defense where fantasy QBs are concerned, however Eli just lost Steve Smith -- again -- but this time for the season. With Manningham dealing with a hip flexor, the options are boiled down to Hakeem Nicks, Kevin Boss and unproven Derek Hagan.
Eli lit this pass defense up last season for 391 yards and three TDs, but their rushing attack was not clicking as it is these days.
The good news is that Philly has a much more prolific offense than last year, so the Giants will have to pass in this one to keep up. Eli did struggle in Philadelphia earlier this year in Week 11 going for only 147 yards on two TDs and three INTs.
I would start Eli as a mid-range QB1, assuming the weather isn't a huge factor.
Start Matt Ryan @ Seattle: 4pm Sunday
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Seattle does nothing right defensively, including allowing the 6th most fantasy points to QBs through 13 weeks of sporting love that we call the NFL. Ryan is coming off a stretch of mediocre fantasy outings but has had a decently rough schedule, five of his last six opponents have ranked inside the top 12 in least fantasy points allowed to QBs. This is his best matchup of the year in Week 14.
Start Carson Palmer Home Vs. Cleveland: 1pm Sunday
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Palmer's career in Cincy isprobably winding down. He has not been able to adjust his judgment in accordance with the limbs he has to work with these days. In other words, he is still taking the same chances now that he did earlier in his career before he messed up his elbow.
That said, the Browns allow the 13th most fantasy points to QBs and Palmer did light them up in Week 4 for 371 yards and two TDs. This will amount to the last time you can consider starting him, as his next two matchups are vs. the No. 1 pass defense of San Diego and then in Baltimore.
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Start Jon Kitna Home Vs. Washington: 1pm Sunday
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He's really only strung together three quality starts (vs. the Giants, Lions and I guess the Jags, though he tossed four INTs). The Redskins are allowing the 5th most fantasy points to QBs through 13 weeks, so Kitna makes for a low-end start if you are in a 12 team league.
Sit Joe Flacco Home Vs. New Orleans: 1pm Sunday
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It's a lot of fun to watch Flacco grow with each game he plays. That Monday night showdown with the Texans was "good, solid stuff" as Terry Chen's Ben Fong Torres character so eloquently put it in Almost Famous.
He didn't play a perfect game, but you can (at least I can) just tell that he's taking that next step in his career this season.
Unfortunately for Flacco owners though, he will be facing the 2nd toughest fantasy pass defense in the NFL that has only allowed eight passing scores on the season and two TDs just once in a game in 2010 (to fellow 3rd year guy Matt Ryan). If you have better options, please use them.
Sit Kyle Orton @ Oakland: 4pm Sunday
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Stick a fork in him, he's done. He just laid an egg against two marginal pass defenses, and with no more Josh McDungiels calling the plays, you can no longer bank on 35+ pass attempts short of a blowout. The Raiders aren't doing anything particularly impressive defending their airspace (10th most points to QBs), but I just don't have much confidence that he can turn things around. This is twice in two years now that the Donkeys have put on an extended facade only to crash and burn. Brandon Lloyd owners should have dumped him when they had the chance. You can stick a fork in him too.
Start Tim Hightower
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I'm counting the minutes until this barnburner gets underway too. When two crap offenses get together anything can happen, right? Bank of America Stadium will be rocking in Charlotte, baby. Hightower donkey-punched the Broncos for 148 yards and two tuddies in Week 14 and they suck only a little worse (one spot lower) than the Panthers. If you are considering starting this guy (and you should be, obviously we are), you have to stay glued to Beanie Wells' news-breakers, as he basically did not play due to the flu last weekend and will inevitably negatively impact High's touches.
Start LeGarrette Blount Home Vs. Detroit: 1pm Sunday
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Ranking him as an RB1 may be aggressive, but good luck finding fault in this. He's averaging a healthy 4.7 YPC over his last three games, two of which were against tough rush Ds (Ravens, Falcons and Redskins). The Lions have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing RBs; you feelin' me now? Fire this chap up as an RB1 for a little fantasy playoff love.
Start Ryan Torain @ Dallas: 1pm Sunday
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This kid is averaging 4.9 YPC and coming off a 172 yard effort vs. the Bucs (granted they are the 10th worst rush defense). The Cowboys aren't quite as porous (14th fewest points to RBs), but with all of the RBBCs and tough matchups this weekend, Torain is a solid RB2 play.
Start Ricky Williams Home Vs. Buffalo: 1pm Sunday
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Ricky sneaks into the top 25 based on this matchup vs. the 4th worst fantasy rush defense. He's got a whopping three total TDs this season, and I say he's a got a good shot at 15 total touches and his 4th TD of the season.
He got sufficient touches in their first meeting but they didn't materialize into much (18 carries for 62 yards). But the Bills have since broken down to the point where they are allowing the most yards per game in the league and the 4th most fantasy points to RBs.
Sit Cedric Benson Home Vs. Cleveland: 1pm Sunday
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Cedric the Un-entertainer busted all over his owner's faces in pretty much every week of this season save for two (Buffalo and Tampa). The Browns will wrap him up like they did in Week 4. The Browns are the 13th best fantasy rush defense.
Sit Ladainian Tomlinson @ Pittsburgh: 4pm Sunday
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Zero TDs in six weeks equals the fat lady singing. Let's not blame schedule either, as those six games included contests vs. the Patriots, Texans and Detroit, each bottom 15 fantasy rush defenses. We all know how good Pittsburgh is in that department (1st), so tempering expectations is a minimalist approach with LT2 this Sunday.
Start Steve Johnson @ Miami: 1pm Sunday:
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God has struck down Stevie for calling him out three weeks ago, as he has not sniffed the end zone and only totaled 76 yards in two games since. Football is weird, and though the 'Fins have a solid fantasy pass defense (6th fewest fantasy points to WRs), I'd have a hard time benching Stevie in this one. The weather will be nice at least.
Start Kenny Britt Home Vs. Houston: 1pm Sunday
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Britt looked very nimble last Thursday despite the moderate stat line (four catches for 39 yards). Who knows (or cares) whether Moss will earn his reps this week, the important thing is that CJ2K is healthy and will have to be accounted for every play. Just don't forget Britt's hot streak earlier this season before his hammy popped from Weeks 3-7 (seven TDs and 434 yards in five games). Oh yeah, and then there's this; the Texans allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs.
Start Pierre Garcon Home Vs. Jacksonville: 1pm Sunday
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I think Garcon has a legitimate shot to outproduce Wayne in this one. No professional team likes to continually get embarrassed by the same dude, and Wayne has done it three straight games. The safety help will be dedicated to Wayne, leaving a surging Garcon (14 catches for 149 yards and three TDs in the last two games) in one on one coverage with one of the top two QBs in the NFL.
Start Santana Moss @ Dallas: 1pm Sunday:
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Moss is going up against the Cowboys who could open a lucrative WR fantasy points business if they figured on the right model; they allow more of them than any other NFL team. Maybe I have that reversed, as I re-read that, it doesn't make a lot of sense. It's certainly not funny. The snow didn't seem to bother Moss last week as he rattled off 82 yards on seven catches and a tuddie. He's had a decent season, here in the twilight of his career (20th most fantasy points for WRs). The good match up makes him a mid-tier WR2 this weekend.
Start Santonio Holmes @ Pittsburgh: 4pm Sunday:
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So if you have him on your roster, you would be insane not to plug him in your line-up, but just remember, for as much as he wants to light up the Steelers, they want to shut him down. Hey Holmes, remember practicing with Polamalu? Well, there's no "no-contact" drills going on in this one. Expect a lot of his attention. The Steelers have allowed the 15th fewest fantasy points to WRs this season, but I expect a better showing than that.
Sit Johnny Knox @ Minnesota: Monday Night
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Blizzard conditions, outdoors in the state of Minnesota, late December, need more? Fine, how about that Joe Webb is the starting QB for the Vikings and this game should be over by half-time? The Vikings are right smack dab in the middle from a pass defense ranking perspective, but there will be a heavy dose of running on both sides, and Cutler looks primarily for Earl Bennett in the red zone anyway. Knox has been a huge disappointment this season.
Sit Sidney Rice Home Vs. Da Bears: Monday Night Football
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Tarvaris Jackson has been placed on the IR and Brett Favre is hiding in a corner with his eyes closed making himself believe that no one can see him. That leaves rookie Joe Webb to start. Uh oh. Leave Rice on the bench. Did I mention the blizzard conditions expected in Minnesota, and that they are playing outdoors because the Metrodome roof collapsed? If you still aren't convinced, just know that the Bears allow the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Start Kevin Boss Home Vs. Philadelphia: 1pm Sunday
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The Eagles cough up the most fantasy points to opposing TEs, and with Steve Smith on the shelf for the remainder, and Manningham dinged up, only Nicks and Boss remain as dependable targets (he received nine of them in Week 14 even with Nicks and Smith back). He has the 4th most fantasy points among TEs over the last five weeks, and you should not hestitate to plug him into your lineup as a TE1 this week.
And Finally....
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Click the following links full rankings at FFArmory.com where we break down the top 12 QBs, top 24 RBs, top 36 WRs and top 12 TEs!
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