Week 15 Fantasy Football Upgrades, Downgrades, and Sleepers

QUARTERBACKS

Each week FFSpin analyzes the matchups and provides our take on which skill position players you should start and which should be riding the virtual pine.  We take several variables into account, including matchups, injuries, potential weather problems, arrests, baby mama trouble, etc.

There are four offenses in the league averaging over 275 passing yards per game.  Those high flying units belong to the Chargers, Colts, Broncos, and Cowboys.  Conversely, the four worst passing games can be found in Seattle, Kansas City, Arizona, and Carolina.  Those units are tallying less than 180 yards through the air each week.  That’s good for Pop Warner, but this is the NFL!  Outside of the Chiefs, it is safe to say those offenses are awful.  The Chiefs will be awful if they don’t have Matt Cassel under center.

The top 5 passing defenses can be found in New Orleans, New York (Giants), Oakland, San Diego (German for…), and Carolina.   A couple unfortunate QB’s who face those stingy defenses and should be downgraded a bit are Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow (@OAK) and Joe Flacco (vs NO).  Mike Vick (@NYG) is pretty much matchup proof, so don’t overreact to the poor matchup on paper as he lines up against a hated division rival.  

Josh Freeman (vs Detroit) and Kerry Collins (vs Houston) could be adequate replacements in week 15 if your usual starters face difficult matchups.  Aaron Rodgers owners might want to check out our Week 15 Waiver Wire article.  It’s looking more and more like Mr. Rodgers will sit out this week with a concussion.

The worst pass defenses call Jacksonville, New England, Seattle, Washington and Houston home.  Those dreadful pass defenders are giving up over 280 yards in precious real estate per contest.  Peyton Manning had 352 yards and 2 TD's against Jacksonville in week 4.  I hope you aren’t facing him this week, because the Jaguars stand little to no chance at slowing him down.  Matt Ryan (vs Seattle) and Jon Kitna (vs Washington) will be borderline top 10 options based on favorable matchups.  .

VIEWS:

Rotoprofessor.com is more optimistic than most on Eli Manning, ranking him 7th as the Giants host a Philadelphia team that has been struggling but expects to welcome back Asante Samuel.

ProFootballWeekly.com recommends starting Houston’s Matt Schaub (ranked 5th), as the Texans face a struggling Tennessee pass defense that ranks 26th (allowing 244 yards/game through the air).

FantasyFanPlay.com are expecting Matt Ryan (ranked 5th) to have a big week, as the Falcons travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks' 30th ranked pass defense allowing  (266 yards/game).

LestersLegends.com are expecting Matt Cassel to be productive (ranked 7th) in his likely  return from last week’s appendectomy. The Chiefs travel to St. Louis to face a Rams secondary that ranks 21st against the pass, allowing an average of 18 fantasy pts/game to opposing QBs.

FANTASY FOOTBALL SPIN:

UPGRADE: Kerry Collins (vs Houston) It’s safe to say that the QB that gets to pass against the Texans is the envy of the league.  Collins gets the honors this week and he has a full compliment of receivers, ranging from talented (Kenny Britt) to slightly above average (Nate Washington) to idiotic-but-still-respected-enough-to-draw-double-coverage (Randy Moss).  Couple that with a real running game and it should mean very good production from Collins.  Coming off of his strong performance last week, look for Collins to take advantage of play action and one of the best runners in the game to open up passing opportunities.  Include Jason Campbell in this category of Upgrades as well.

DOWNGRADE: Joe Flacco (vs NO) The former Blue Hen has been impressive of late.   Over the past ten games, he has a QB rating over 100 in seven of them, has thrown for two or more TDs in six of them, and has averaged 256 yards per game over that span.  Flacco has even rediscovered Anquan Boldin after a stretch of silence.  The Ravens square off against New Orleans in Week 15, however, and they have proven to be a tough matchup for opposing passers.  It has been an easier task to run on them (16th in run defense).  We think they will try to establish the run to eat up the clock and keep Drew Brees and the potent Saints offense off the field.  Unless this turns into a blowout, it has the makings of a 200 yard, 1 TD, 1 INT performance.

SLEEPER:  Shaun Hill (vs Tampa Bay) It is looking more and more like Shaun Hill will return as the starting QB for the Lions, who have a decent passing matchup against the mediocre Tampa unit.  Hill has thrown for more yards than TDs and he should produce well in performance leagues once again in this matchup.  Watch closely to make sure he is starting and if he does, Hill should post top 10 QB numbers.  Another true sleeper might be Joe Webb.  We wrote this piece yesterday that explores the fact that you may be able start Webb as a flex or WR.  As a straight QB play, stay away.

Check out the Upgrades, Downgrades, and Sleepers at WR and RB. Good luck in the playoffs.